2026 Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Predictions

The Cup Series heats up this afternoon as it returns to the high banks of Texas Motor Speedway for the 2026 Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY. Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile asphalt oval featuring 20 degrees of banking in turns one and two, 24 degrees of banking in turns three and four, and five degrees of banking on both the frontstretch and backstretch. Opening in 1996 and hosting NASCAR’s best every year since 1997, Texas serves as one of the raciest (this isn’t the word that you think it is you fucking hillbillies)  tracks on the schedule, with high speeds and even higher tempers testing drivers and their teams across 267 laps.

Incredibly, after getting a bad rap for years, intermediate tracks have gone from some of the worse racing on the schedule to arguably the best, with ample passing opportunities, interesting strategy calls, and multiple racing grooves. At the end of the day, it’s still an intermediate track, and strategy is pretty straightforward: track position is king, four tires are better than two tires, and the best offense is a good defense. Drivers are looking to find that right balance, and based on what we saw in Practice and qualifying, there will be plenty of comers and goers early on, with a surprise front row of Spire Motorsports teammates Carson Hocevar and Daniel Suarez not showing strong long run pace, while Ford favorites Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano showing solid long run speed while starting from deep in the field. Tire management will be essential, as a blowout at these speeds will bring an automatic end to a driver’s race. Patience will be key, with the lead driver being able to manipulate the air and cause fits for a driver right behind them. With multiple racing grooves, drivers should be able to find a way around the track, with the bottom line being preferred, and the top line serving up more pace, but being so much harder on those tires. Which driver is going to lock in early, find the right groove and become the last driver standing in the Lone Star State?

The Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY has only been held since 2005, but it has produced a strong list of winners in its existence. Jimmie Johnson holds the record for most victories in this race, finding Victory Lane five times in his career. Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick are both three-time Texas winners, and Tony Stewart is also a multi-time winner of this race.

Last year’s race was won by Joey Logano, who overcame a 27th place starting position to lead seven laps and take home the victory. Ross Chastain finished second, Ryan Blaney led two laps on the way to a third place finish, Kyle Larson won Stage Two and led a race-high 90 laps on the way to a fourth place finish, and Erik Jones was the highest placing Toyota in fifth position. John Hunter Nemechek led one lap on the on the way to an eighth place finish, Todd Gilliland led four laps on the way to an 11th place finish, William Byron led 22 laps on the way to a 13th place finish, Tyler Reddick led one lap on the way to a 21st place finish, Polesitter Carson Hocevar led 22 laps on the way to a 24th place finish, Austin Cindric won Stage One and led 60 laps on the way to a 25th place finish, Michael McDowell led 19 laps on the way to a 26th place finish, Josh Berry led 41 laps on the way to a 32nd place finish, Alex Bowman led one lap on the way to a 35th place finish, and Denny Hamlin finished 38th after leading one lap.

Coverage of the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY can be seen on Fox Sports One, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

I hate to kick a good man while he’s down, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do today. Alex Bowman has had a pretty forgettable start to his 2026 campaign, missing four races due to vertigo and posting three finishes of 36th or worse in six starts to rank 36th in the Driver Standings. Bowman is coming off of a season-best third place finish one week ago at Talladega but comes to a track that has proven to be a struggle for him in his career. In 16 starts at Texas, Bowman has just a pair of top 5’s and six top 20 finishes to go along with six DNF’s, four of which have come in his last seven starts. Bowman didn’t show much pace in Practice, ranking 33rd in the session before qualifying ninth for this afternoon’s race, his best qualifying effort of the season. Alex Bowman is eventually going to rebound and start running better each race, but this race isn’t going to serve as the catalyst. Mark down Bowman for another finish outside the top 25 today.

Dark Horse:

Making his 10th Cup Series start today, Corey Heim is the future of the sport. The man who accomplished more in three full-time Craftsman Truck Series seasons than 99.9% of drivers in the history of the sport have accomplished in the entirety of their career can’t find a full-time ride in any of the top three series? Give me a fucking break. In four Craftsman Truck Series starts at Texas, Heim has one win, two top 5’s, and four top 10 finishes, highlighted by a victory last spring where he won Stage Two and led 96 laps on the way to victory. So far this weekend, Heim is already flexing more of his high ceiling, laying down the third fastest lap of Practice while ranking inside the top 10 on 5, 10, and 25 Lap Averages and inside the top five on 15 and 20 Lap Averages before qualifying in 17th position. Expectations still need to be kept in check. This is the fourth car for 23XI Racing that’s only run in two other races so far this season. Considering that Heim already has one top 10 and a pair of top 15 finishes (both of which have come on intermediate tracks) in his young Cup Series career, another top 15 finish this afternoon is certainly within his reach.

Top 10:

I already know this pick is going to come back to bite me since he pricks me every time I pick him, but we are so ready to get hurt again. Kyle Larson. Young Money. What can I say about him that hasn’t been said before? Not much, but here’s the facts. Larson hasn’t won a Cup Series race in over a year now, but he did win the Championship last season. He’s still driving at a competitive pace, but he just can’t close the deal. Three wins and six top 10’s already this season is nothing to sneeze at, including finishes of second at Kansas and seventh at Las Vegas, to rank sixth in the Driver Standings. Larson has been very successful at Texas in his career, posting one win, five top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 10 top 20’s, and 615 laps led in 18 starts, not to mention winning the All-Star Race at the track in 2021 and winning a Stage in each of the last four Texas races and in five of the last six. The winner of the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race at the track yesterday, Larson is flexing his intermediate track prowess in the Cup Series as well, laying down the 9th fastest lap of Practice and ranking inside the top five on 5 and 10 Lap Averages before qualifying in 11th position for the race today. Larson has it rolling right now on the mile and a half tracks and is geared up to log another top 10 Texas finish this afternoon.

Winner:

This pick probably seems like a surprise at first glance, but hear me out. Chase Briscoe has been sneaky good on intermediate tracks since joining Joe Gibbs Racing last season, winning last fall at Darlington and posting seven top five finishes in 13 starts. Briscoe’s 2026 season got off to a disastrous start, posting three finishes of 36th or worse in the first four races, before righting the ship since, posting a pair of top 5’s, three top 10’s, and five top 15 finishes in the last six races, including an eighth place finish at Las Vegas and a season-best third place finish at Kansas. In his brief Cup Series career, Briscoe has shown flashes of success at Texas, posting one top five, three top 10’s, and four top 20 finishes in five career starts at the track. This weekend is shaping up to be a strong one for Briscoe, ranking inside the top five on 15, 20, and 25 Lap Averages and pacing the field on 30 Lap Averages in Practice before locking in a top five starting position in qualifying. Starting up front, having strong long-run speed, AND driving a Toyota? Could be another long day at the office for the DARF’s on social media. I’m taking Chase Briscoe for his first win of the season at the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY at Texas Motor Speedway!