2026 Jack Link’s 500 Predictions

If you’re any kind of a (stock car) racing fan, this is one of those weekends you circle on the calendar when the schedule is released in the fall prior. 2.6 miles of relentless, near-uncontrollable, razor’s edge, all-out, balls-to-the-wall, wide-open throttle for 188 laps at NASCAR’s largest oval on the circuit. Over the past few weeks, fans have been treated to (or, for some, “punished with”) some fairly strategic and clean racing, reminiscent of the original “chase format” days when agendas were wildly different, and accumulating points sometimes mattered more than a win itself. But here, in Talladega, AL, the spring superspeedway race represents new life – a win for an underdog can change an entire career trajectory and get you right back into points contention, offering hope where there was otherwise very little. The caveat? The Big One. The OG home of the big one. It takes nothing to lose control at 190 mph and ruin the day of half the field around and behind you. It takes cutting edge precision, patience, focus, steadiness, and a little luck to even finish the race, let alone win it.

Hear that, Stephen A.? You know, the type of skill an athlete needs to compete and win. Or is that not “athletic” enough for ya? Let us know when you’re ready to buckle in for four hours in 110℉ heat, my dude. 

‘Dega is synonymous with the Earnhardt name. Dale Sr. won here an astonishing 10 times, followed by Dale Jr.’s six victories here between 2004 and 2015 – a streak dominated by four wins in a row over three seasons. That’s dominance. Today, an entire crop of driver’s pose significant threats here: Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace, and Michael McDowell, to simply name a few. So, without further ado, let’s get to it. It’s the Jack Link’s 500 from Talladega Superspeedway.

Driver to Fade:

I hate doing this, kicking a good man when he’s down. Hell, his whole team is down. But it’s been nothing but trial by fire this season for the 19 year old rookie that, leave no doubt, will one day be a threat at the Cup level. But not today. Yesterday’s rainout did very little to position the young man for a good start this afternoon, and starting at the near tail-end of the field poses a significant hazard for the 88 team today. Anything’s possible here, but we’re just not seeing it today. At a track of surprises and unknowns, we’re taking Connor Zilisch for the fade. Due time, young padawan.

Dark Horse:

Call us crazy, but he’s sneaky here. And this is starting to feel like an ever important year for the former JR Motorsports prodigy. Since 2024, Noah Gragson has punched two Top 5 finishes and two Top 10 finishes here alone, all with an average starting position of 30th (courtesy Driver Averages). Hard to ignore. Overlooked by many, Gragson is a superspeedway fiend; he thrives under wide-open, all-out conditions and is more than brave enough to peek out of line and get to the front. Keep an eye on the #4 today – you may wanna pop him into your lineup or parlays today. He starts 29th.

Top 10:

Another superspeedway ace that, hate to say it, circles the superspeedway races as his biggest potential year in and year out. And rightfully so. Maybe the most overlooked superspeedway racer on the circuit, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. seems to always be right in contention for the win when the white flag falls. Yep, there are plenty of potentials we could’ve taken for the Top 10 today, but give us another dark horse, for all we care. He’s logged a win here in the past couple years, concurrent with 2 Top 10 finishes. We like his odds today, and could be another moneymaking play for your lineup this afternoon. He rolls off P22 today.

Winner:

I can’t help myself. If we’re gonna give you a bunch of underdogs to start our predictions off for this week, we’re gonna stay right in line (ha, get it?) with the underdogs. Two weeks ago, Ty Gibbs punched his first ever win-column ticket with a thrilling last lap victory over Ryan Blaney at Bristol Motor Speedway. This week, we’re taking the 23-year-old from Portage, Michigan, to punch his first ever win on the high banks of Talladega. There is NO reason to believe he can’t do it today. Rolling off 12th this afternoon, Carson Hocevar has been positively consistent all year. His weakest track type this season? Hell… none of them, really. We’re not saying that he’s the next coming, but it’s undeniable that his aggression and grit embody that of the late Dale Earnhardt Sr. And, what better a place to punch his first win than the place that Earnhardt dominated? We’re taking the #77 for the W today in Talladega, AL!