2026 Go Bowling at The Glen Predictions

The Cup Series heats up (chills down, given the forecast?) this Mother’s Day weekend as it returns to Watkins Glen International for the 2026 Go Bowling at The Glen. Watkins Glen is one of the most iconic road courses in the country, opening in 1956. Racing on the seven-turn, 2.45 mile asphalt Short Circuit (with Inner Loop Chicane), the track first hosted NASCAR in 1957 and has been an annual fixture on the schedule since 1986.

The biggest variable today is the weather. This is the first time NASCAR has ever raced at Watkins Glen in May. With temperatures expecting to peak around 60 degrees Fahrenheit at the drop of the green flag and the infield being completely soaked thanks to a boatload of rain earlier in the week, managing your equipment will be vital. Drivers will want to utilize as much of the track as they can, but if they overcook any of the turns and get caught in the grass, they will 100% destroy their splitter (See Sheldon Creed and Connor Zilisch yesterday), making the rest of their race a long one, if they can even continue at all. Patience is a virtue, especially since passing on a road course in the Gen Seven car has proven to be challenging. The chrome horn will be used, but if you use it, don’t tell anyone you’re going to do so (cough cough, Ryan Preece, cough cough). With cooler temperatures, there will be significant tire fall off, as we saw drivers lose multiple seconds over the course of a run during Practice. At arguably the fastest road course on the schedule, with the bravest drivers approaching 180 mph as they enter the Inner Loop Chicane, a tire blowout or brake failure will almost certainly be race-ending. And speaking of track limits, this year’s edition looks slightly different, with tire barriers in place down in turn one and at the exit of the carousel. What was often a three or even four-wide free for all in the past, drivers will be hard pressed to go three-wide this year, or risk causing The Big One on a road course (Looking at you, Kris Wright). Track position is king, but with tire fall off being at the forefront, two-tire calls may not even be on the table, barring a late race caution. Restarts and pit stops will always be the easiest times to make up ground, but a pit road penalty or restart violation is an instant death sentence on a road course (Whatever you do, DO NOT give it the gas before you reach the restart zone). Finally, who will have the winning strategy? Will Stage Points be most important? Or will short pitting at the end of the Stage prove to be the right call? How far can a tank of gas really last when climbing up through the esses and down through the carousel? And heaven forbid there be a caution in the final 20 laps, as that always leads to a demolition derby from drivers racing with no respect whatsoever (See the 2024 race). It all depends on the driver’s agenda and whether or not they truly think they have a car capable of winning the race (If you have to question whether you have one, that usually means you don’t). Will the road course ringers once again reign supreme across 100 laps in the Empire State?

The Go Bowling at The Glen was first held in 1957 and has produced an impressive list of winners throughout the years. Tony Stewart has won this race the most times, finding Victory Lane fives times in his career. Jeff Gordon has four Watkins Glen victories (including three in a row in 1997, 1998, and 1999), Mark Martin is a three-time winner at The Glen, and Marcos Ambrose, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Ricky Rudd, and Rusty Wallace are also multi-time winners of this race.

Last year’s edition was won by Shane van Gisbergen, who started on the front row and led a race-high 38 laps on the way to his first Watkins Glen victory, and the fourth of five consecutive road course victories last season. Christopher Bell finished in second, while the defending race champion, Chris Buescher, won Stage One and led five laps on the way to a podium finish. William Byron finished in fourth position, while Chase Briscoe led six laps on the way to a top five finish. Polesitter Ryan Blaney won Stage Two and led 35 laps on the way to a sixth place finish, while Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing’s Ryan Preece led one lap on the way to a 13th place finish and his teammate, Brad Keselowski, led five laps on the way to a 31st place finish.

Coverage of the Go Bowling at The Glen can be seen on Fox Sports One, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 1:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

This will be a very unpopular take, but oh well. Carson Hocevar has thrust himself into the conversation as one of the sport’s most popular drivers, with his third season serving as the break out we all expected would happen sooner rather than later. Picking up his first career Cup Series victory just two weeks ago at Talladega, not to mention giving us one of the greatest post-race victories in the history of the sport, Hocevar has also logged three top five finishes and five top 10’s to rank sixth in the Driver Standings. Throw in a victory in the Craftsman Truck Series just one week ago at Texas Motor Speedway and a recent appearance at the Met Gala, and Hocevar is truly living his best life right now. So, why fade a guy who seemingly has it all? Hocevar is very much a risk every single week due to his aggressive driving style. He’s shown his road course potential already this weekend, laying down the second fastest lap of Practice and ranking third on 10 Lap Averages. But alas, it isn’t where you start, it’s where you finish, and that is starting to become an issue for Hocevar on road courses. In exactly one dozen road course starts, Hocevar has qualified inside the top five twice, inside the top 10 three times, and inside the top 15 six times. Sounds promising, right? Well, it would be if he hadn’t finished outside the top 15 in nine of those 12 starts, including five finishes of 29th or worse. Ironically, his best ever road course finish, a third place finish in this race in 2024, came from a 29th place starting position, his worst ever on a road course. With Hocevar’s pace this weekend, expect him to make his way forward early on, but ultimately, Hocevar will ride that Dente straight to the back and finish outside the top 15 this afternoon.

Dark Horse:

The teammate of Hocevar above, Michael McDowell started off the year strong, nearly winning the Daytona 500 on a contrarian strategy before wrecking on the final lap, logging a fifth place finish at Circuit of the Americas, and backing it up with a ninth place showing at Phoenix before becoming mortal again, logging just two top 20 finishes since then. McDowell enters this week on a real “heater,” posting four consecutive finishes of 24th or worse (the thrill of victory for Hocevar, the agony of defeat for McDowell). Arguably as big of a threat each week as Hocevar due to his ability to throw a shit block on a drafting track or overdrive his equipment when he ends up on a contrarian pit strategy, McDowell is low-key a great road course racer, finishing inside the top five in four of the last six and six of the last eleven road races, not to mention kissing the bricks by winning on the Indianapolis Road Course in 2023. McDowell has been dialed in at Watkins Glen of late, qualifying inside the top 10 each of the last four races, leading laps in three of those races, and bringing home a pair of top 10 finishes over that stretch. So far this weekend, McDowell is picking up right where he left off in past years, logging the 12th fastest lap of Practice and ranking inside the top five on 5 Lap Averages before laying down a monster lap in qualifying to lock in a front row starting position, his best ever at Watkins Glen. Spire Motorsports has speed, and at a road course often dubbed the superspeedway of road courses, McDowell is going to utilize that to his advantage, maximizing his road course prowess, the fast pace his #71 Chevrolet has, and great starting track position to automatically make himself one of the favorites, whether we choose to admit it or not. A victory IS NOT out of the equation today for McDowell. But keeping expectations in check, I predict that McDowell will lead some laps and be in the mix all race long on the way to another top 10 finish on a road course.

Top 10:

“Channels my inner Cris Collingsworth.” Now here’s a guy who’s desperately in need of a good finish. Christopher Bell has been all aboard the struggle bus of late, finishing outside the top 15 in five of his last six starts after posting a trio of top five finishes in his three starts prior to that, plummeting to 12th position in the Driver Standings, nowhere near falling out of The Chase, but enough to start sweating a little as we enter the summer months. When we go to a road course, the usual storyline, at least lately, has been Shane van Gisbergen this, Tyler Reddick that, one trick ponies this, them cheating ‘Yotas that. Well, that last one is every week, but you get my gist. Besides SVG and Reddick, Bell has arguably been the best road course racer over the past few seasons, winning at Circuit of the Americas last spring and finishing inside the top five in seven of the last eight road course races, including each of the last four. His Watkins Glen stats are solid as well: two top fives (coming in his last three starts at the track), four top 10’s, and a worst finish of 14th in five career starts at the track. So far this weekend, Bell has been pacing the Toyota camp, ranking third on 5 Lap Averages and posting the fourth fastest lap of Practice before qualifying in eighth position, best among all Toyotas. Bell is a patient and methodical driver when it comes to road course racing, managing his equipment and not making dumb moves early to give himself a chance at the victory late in the going. I absolutely expect Bell to be in the hunt all race long and bring home a much-needed top 10 finish today.

Winner:

If I told you at the very beginning I was taking a Trackhouse Racing driver to win today’s race, your response probably would’ve been, no shock there. But if I told you that I am NOT picking Shane van Gisbergen to win, you’d probably ask me what kind of dope I was smoking. Enter Connor Zilisch. Currently in the midst of the most anticipated rookie camapaign that we have seen in quite a long time, the results have been, well, very underwhelming, posting just three top 20 finishes and eight finishes outside the top 25 to sit a horrendous 33rd in the Driver Standings, ranking ahead of just Alex Bowman, who missed four races due to Vertigo symptoms, and Cody Ware and Cole Custer, both of whom are ass on the track (sorry, not sorry). His O’Reilly Auto Parts Series career was, and continues to be, incredible, posting 13 wins, 25 top 5’s, 29 top 10’s, and 1,163 laps led in 41 career starts. Most drivers would be content to have those type of numbers for their ENTIRE career, if we’re being honest. Of his 13 wins, seven of them have come on road courses. And of those seven road course wins, three of them have come at Watkins Glen, a track where he has started from the Pole twice, won three Stages, and led 125 laps in three starts. That’s right, he’s undefeated at this track in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, and enters with all the momentum in the world after leading 20 laps and running down Jesse Love, who was trying to stretch his fuel and tire to the finish, from 18 second back with just 25 laps remaining, all the while nursing a wounded race car, and passing him for the victory in the final corner to land his third straight victory at the track. And, to top things off, he stuck the landing (If you know, you know)! Zilisch also finished runner-up in the Craftsman Truck Series race at Watkins Glen on Friday, winning Stage Two and leading 28 laps. Other starts at Watkins Glen for Zilisch? One win (2024) and one runner-up (2023) in the ARCA Menards Series and an eighth place finish in the Craftsman Truck Series race last year. And did I mention he’s only 19-years-old? This kid is the real deal, and not overrated whatsoever (Justin, if you’re reading this, you’re welcome). Zilisch did not jump off the board in Practice yesterday, ranking in the back half of the top 10 on 5 and 10 Lap Averages and only posting the 21st fastest lap of Practice before showing up in qualifying and locking down a top five starting position. A rising superstar in the sport who will be a fixture for decades to come, I predict that Connor Zilisch will get his rookie season back on the track and keep the youth trend going today by becoming the third first-time winner this season (fourth if you count Ryan Preece at The Clash at Bowman Gray) and the second youngest winner EVER in the Cup Series with a victory at Watkins Glen!