2026 Daytona 500 Predictions

The 2026 Cup Series season officially gets underway this afternoon with the 68th running of the Daytona 500. A 2.5-mile superspeedway, Daytona International Speedway opened in 1959 and features 31 degrees of banking in the turns, 18 degrees of banking in the tri-oval, and three degrees of banking on the backstretch. With engines cranked wide open, there is no better way to kick off the season than by watching 41 drivers take to the track at speeds approaching 200 mph for 500 (or maybe a few more) miles in pursuit of their share of the $31,045,575 purse and their chance of adding their name to the iconic Harley J. Earl Trophy with a victory in The Great American Race.

The strategy: don’t wreck, you big dummy! Daytona is a crapshoot, anymore. There will be plenty of comers and goers over the course of 500 miles, and nobody is ever safe from a wreck. The Big One can happen to anyone at anyplace at anytime. All it takes is one dumbass (usually Logano, Stenhouse, Keselowski, or McDowell, let’s be honest) to throw a shit block or bump the driver in front of them at the wrong angle to take out half the field in one swoop. Drivers are just hoping they’ve picked the right lane, made the right passes, and have enough luck on their side to not get involved in somebody else’s wreck. Throw in the fact that the race was moved up an hour earlier from its initial start time of 2:30 PM EST due to the threat of incoming weather, and you have the perfect storm (I think I’m hilarious, by the way) of chaos and aggression as drivers cut their way forward and backward in hopes of claiming a career-defining victory.

The Daytona 500 was first contested in 1959, and the list of winners reads like a true list of both Hall of Famers and underdog triumphs. Richard Petty has won the Daytona 500 the most, notching seven career victories in The Great American Race. Cale Yarborough sits in second position on the list with four Daytona 500 victories. Three-time winners of The Great American Race include Bobby Allison, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Jarrett, while William Byron, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bill Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Sterling Marlin, and Michael Waltrip are all two-time winners of the Daytona 500.

Last year’s edition was won by William Byron, who led 10 laps and survived the carnage of a final lap pileup to win the Daytona 500 for the second consecutive season. Tyler Reddick finished in second place, while auto racing legend Jimmie Johnson logged a third place finish. Polesitter Chase Briscoe led four laps on the way to a fourth place finish, while fellow Toyota driver John Hunter Nemechek rounded out the top five. Alex Bowman (Stage 2 winner), Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric (led race-high 59 laps), Michael McDowell, Ty Dillon, Chase Elliott, Corey LaJoie, Denny Hamlin, Noah Gragson, Bubba Wallace, Carson Hocevar, Ryan Preece, and Joey Logano (Stage 1 winner) all led laps during the race as well.

William Byron looks to become the first driver to win the Daytona 500 in three consecutive seasons this afternoon in the 68th running of the Daytona 500. Pre-race coverage can be seen on FOX beginning at 11:30 AM EST, with green flag coverage beginning at 1:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Todd Gilliland has had a reputation early in his career as a perennial superspeedway dark horse, primarily thanks to being in a Ford, which always seemed to qualify well at every drafting track for a hot minute, and for being teammates with Michael McDowell, who won the 2021 Daytona 500 and who always seemed to find himself in the hunt for the victory late in the going at drafting tracks. Unfortunately for Gilliland, that’s where the good times end for him at Daytona. In eight starts at the track, Gilliland has seven finishes of 23rd or worse, and in the Daytona 500, he has never finished better than 27th (in both 2023 and 2025). He’s run up front and gotten stage points in multiple races, leading 21 laps to boot, but he is more likely than not going to get caught up in the Big One as the race progresses. Starting from 18th position, expect Gilliland to be in the hornet’s nest early on the way to another finish outside the top 25 in The Great American Race.

Dark Horse:

If you had to hazard a guess for the best average finish at Daytona among drivers with multiple starts at the track, I’m almost certain that John Hunter Nemechek would not have been one of your first two dozen guesses. That being said, Nemechek has been sneaky good at Daytona, posting one top five, two top 10’s, five top 15’s, and no finishes worth than 17th in six career starts on the high banks, while elevating those skills even further for the Daytona 500, finishing 11th or better in all three of his starts in this race. Nemechek has had a great Speedweeks so far, showing solid pace in each of the first two Practice sessions, ranking ninth in Wednesday night’s qualifying session, and finishing fifth in his Duel race to start today’s 500 mile race from the 11th position. On top of that, Nemechek ran the Craftsman Truck Series race on Friday night, leading three times for 10 laps and being one perfectly timed block away from walking away with the victory in that race. Expect Nemechek to run up front early and be a threat late in the going on the way to a fourth straight top 15 finish in the Daytona 500.

Top 10:

To some, he’s just a hack. But to others, he is Bowman the Showman. In spite of the haters, Alex Bowman is nothing if not consistent, making the playoffs in seven of his eight full-time seasons driving for Hendrick Motorsports, but finishing outside the top 10 in the final Driver Standings in five of those seven appearances. An eight-time Cup Series winner, Bowman more often than not gets off to a strong start each season, posting six or more top 10 finishes over the first 10 races in three of the last four seasons. Those hot starts have been ignited by being in the hunt for the Daytona 500 victory on the final lap, posting three consecutive top six finishes in The Great American Race, include a runner-up performance in 2024. In 16 Daytona races since joining Hendrick Motorsports, Bowman has posted a pair of top 5’s, seven top 10’s, and 12 top 20 finishes. Not too bad for a hack, am I right? Bowman showed great pace during Practice, ranking inside the top 10 in each of the first two sessions. After a sixth place qualifying effort on Wednesday, Bowman came in 10th place during his Duel race, relegating him to a 21st place starting position this afternoon. Bowman came from a 38th place starting position last year on the way to a sixth place showing, and I predict he will come from deep in the pack again to lock down a fourth straight top 10 finish in the 500.

Winner:

After showing flashes of his potential for years at Stewart-Haas Racing, Chase Briscoe finally had his breakout season in 2025, posting three wins, 15 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s, claiming seven Poles, and posting a career best average finish of 12.67 (ayo, 6-7) on the way to a career-best third place finish in the Championship Standings. Briscoe showed his prowess early on last season by winning the Pole for the Daytona 500 on the way to a fourth place finish. Briscoe is another driver who doesn’t immediately come to mind as a superspeedway ringer, but the stats tell a different tale. In 10 career starts at Daytona, Briscoe has two top 5’s, three top 10’s, five top 20’s, and 84 laps led. His Daytona 500 stats are even more impressive, posting a pair of top 5’s and three top 10’s in five starts, highlighted by a best finish of third in 2022. The winner of the Talladega fall race last season, Briscoe picked right back up where he left off, showcasing what his #19 Toyota Camry can do, by earning a front row starting spot alongside Polesitter Kyle Busch. I predict that Chase Briscoe will kick off another massive campaign in 2026 in style by becoming just the second Toyota driver to ever lift the Harley J. Earl Trophy by winning the 68th running of the Daytona 500!