2026 NASCAR Cup Series Preview and Predictions

Drivers, start your engines! The 2026 NASCAR season is now upon us. There is no shortage of storylines as we embark on the drive to another championship. Below are the biggest happenings in the off-season, a preview of what is to come in 2026, who I predict will win their first championship, and so much more. With plenty to unpack, let’s take a lap through the garage and dive into what you need to know for the upcoming season.

The Return of the Chase:

So much news happened this off-season. The biggest was arguably the return of a previous points system. For some fans, this is welcome news. For bitter pricks, it’s just more ammo for them to use in the comments sections of “social” media. After the use of a playoff-style format with an elimination every third playoff race, the NASCAR championship format is changing once again, returning to The Chase format, which they previously used from 2004-2016. The top 16 drivers (top 12 in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, top 10 in the Craftsman Truck Series) in the season-long Driver Standings qualify for The Chase, which will be held over the final 10 races of the season. In terms of points, a race win is now worth 55 points, a second-place finish is worth 35 points, a third-place finish is worth 34 points (you get the gist). Stage Points will still be in effect throughout the season. Once The Chase begins, the points will be reset based on the driver’s finishing position in the regular season Driver Standings. The points will be as follows to start The Chase:

• 1st: 2,100 points
• 2nd: 2,075
• 3rd: 2,065
• 4th: 2,060
• 5th: 2,055
• 6th: 2,050
• 7th: 2,045
• 8th: 2,040
• 9th: 2,035
• 10th: 2,030
• 11th: 2,025
• 12th: 2,020
• 13th: 2,015
• 14th: 2,010
• 15th: 2,005
• 16th: 2,000

From there, it’s 10 races, no eliminations, the driver with the most points following the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway will be the 2026 Champion. Seems straightforward, no? No more win and you’re in. No more drivers with strong seasons without a win who only miss the Playoffs because drivers below them happened to find Victory Lane. Consistency matters. Wins matter. Every single position matters every single race. Despite the boomers clamoring for a full season Championship like the good ol’ days, The Chase format serves as a nice compromise from NASCAR management. Will there be kinks to work out? Undoubtedly so. But nevertheless, this new (old?) format will do a better job of rewarding those drivers who are consistent throughout the year and will ultimately crown a most deserving champion at the end of the season.

The Charter Lawsuit is Over: Now What?

After much pomp and circumstance, NASCAR finally faced off in court against 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports regarding the claims of NASCAR violating anti-trust laws as a monopolistic organization (NASCAR owns the series, owns many of the tracks that the drivers race at, and allows teams to buy their car parts from NASCAR-approved suppliers only, among other issues) and forcing teams to sign what was perceived as an unfair Charter Agreement in 2022. The trial began on December 1, and there were many moments that painted NASCAR in a bad light (not that it takes much effort these days). Among the highlights (lowlights?):

Steve Phelps’ thoughts on Richard Childress:

“Childress is an idiot. If they don’t like the state of the sport, sell your charter and get out.”

“Did I mention Childress was an idiot?”

“If he’s that angry (and apparently he is) sign your charter extension and sell. He’s not smart, is a dinosaur, and a malcontent. He’s worth a couple hundred million dollars – every dollar associated with nascar in some fashion. Total ass-clown.”

“Childress needs to be taken out back and flogged. He’s a stupid redneck who owes his entire fortune to nascar”

Steve Phelps and Steve O’Donnell Feeling Threatened by SRX:

Phelps: Oh great, another owner racing in SRX

O’Donnell: This is NASCAR. Pure and simple. Enough. We need legal to take a shot at this.

Phelps: These guys are just plain stupid. Need to put a knife in this trash series.

Joe Gibbs Racing co-owner Heather Gibbs wrote a letter to NASCAR, begging the sport to give teams permanent charters:

“It is imperative for the partnership of teams and NASCAR unify in order to grow this sport. That begins with transferring to permanent or evergreen (some sort of auto renewal based on metrics we can all agree upon) charters. It’s not transferring wealth, it’s a commitment from NASCAR to the team owners that they should continue to invest over a billion dollars a year into your sport.”

Scott Prime, Executive Vice President in Charge of Strategy, quite literally admits the sport is a monopoly while being questioned on the stand by 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports attorney Jeffrey Kessler:

“You’re a monopoly,” Kessler told Prime. “There’s no place else to compete. There was no place else for them to go, correct?”

“NASCAR is the premier stock car racing series today, yes,” Prime said.

• NASCAR invoked their exclusivity clause to prevent SRX from hosting races at any SMI-owned tracks.
• Bob Jenkins has often sponsored his own race cars and has lost approximately $100 million as a Cup Series owner over the last 20 years.
• NASCAR revealed some of their financials, which have long been kept hush hush by the upper brass. In 2024 alone, NASCAR grossed $1.7 billion, with a net profit of $103 million.
• An economist testified during the trial that NASCAR owed 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports $364.7 million in damages, and that NASCAR shorted 36 chartered teams $1.06 billion from 2021-24.

There are so many other greatest hits from the trial. Need I really go on?

Finally, on December 11, 2025, the white flag waved. NASCAR agreed to settle with 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports, thereby improving the financials of every team in sport, from the alphas to the underdogs, moving forward, and effectively changing the entire business side of the sport for team owners. The result:

• 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports were given their charters back
• 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports received compensation for the races they ran as uncharted teams
• 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports receive an unknown amount in monetary damages
• Charters for all Cup Series teams are now permanent
• All Cup Series teams receive revenue from NASCAR’s international media rights deal
• Cup Series teams will receive 1/3 from any deal brokered by NASCAR involving a team’s intellectual property usage

The settlement also included specifics about the approval, sale, and revocation of charters.

Two-thirds of teams need to okay the renewal of charters, and if they don’t sign a renewal, they are still chartered for a year (or more) while they sell off their charter. If a team doesn’t meet certain performance standards, they must sell their charter, with NASCAR receiving 10% of the sale price (NASCAR previously received 2%).

At the end of the day, NASCAR stood firm and banked on the teams backing down before this lawsuit ever went to trial. When it was all said and done, NASCAR management has become an even bigger laughing stock in the sport. NASCAR immediately went into damage control, with Commissioner Steve Phelps “stepping away” from his role effective immediately. The France family still reigns supreme over the sport, but now realize that folks aren’t afraid to go against them. The NASCAR higher-ups are going to need to do some serious brown nosing moving forward to make amends with insulting drivers, team owners, the fans, and auto racing as a whole in their private communications, which is a great reminder for us all to never put anything in writing you wouldn’t be comfortable with somebody else reading.

Teams have permanent charters and are now set up for exponential financial growth moving forward in regard to potential sponsors and future media/ip deals and NASCAR brass got knocked down a few pegs and have to figure out how to make amends with pretty much everyone involved with the sport. The real winner: everybody.

The Health of Hamlin: What to Expect in 2026?

2025 will go down as arguably the most dramatic of Hamlin’s career. On the track, he posted six wins (including Cup Series career win #60), 14 top five finishes, 18 top 10’s, five Poles, and led over 1,000 laps on the year to finish runner-up in the Point Standings. The runner-up finish only tells part of the story on paper, which is made all the more bitter after a dominant Phoenix performance where Hamlin started on the Pole and led over 200 laps before a caution came out with four laps to go. Hamlin took four tires, several drivers took two tires, and several drivers just stayed out on the track and rolled the dice. Hamlin would finish the race in sixth position, losing the race to Kyle Larson, who took two tires and held on to a third-place finish to clinch the Championship.

On the business side, as we touched on earlier, Hamlin and his team, 23XI Racing, settled their lawsuit with NASCAR and completely changing the future of the sport (for drivers, owners, and the fans) for the better with their victory.

On the family side, it was the highest of highs and lowest of lows for Hamlin, with his third child being born in June. Sadly, Hamlin’s father, who had been terminally ill for some time, passed away in December from injuries sustained in a house fire. Hamlin’s mother was also injured in the fire but is on the way to recovery.

Physically, Hamlin isn’t 100% either, as he reinjured his shoulder while combing through the fire-damaged home of his parents. Hamlin has gone on the record saying he’s dealt with lingering side effects in his shoulder since he initially tore his labrum two years ago, but he hopes to race through another NASCAR season and avoid surgery for the time being.

Like him or not, you have to feel for the guy. One of the most polarizing figures in the sport, Hamlin knows which buttons to push and just the right things to say to get the masses fired up. Hamlin has been one of the all-time great drivers in terms of the mental game, as he has gotten better with age on the track while finding ways to compartmentalize his driving focus apart from a family focus apart from a team owner focus. With the amount of stress and just the rollercoaster of events going on in Hamlin’s life of late, surely some regression might be in store for Hamlin this season.

Hamlin still has the skillset necessary to compete and hold his own against drivers half his age, but nobody can outrun Father Time, as evidenced by his shoulder injury. He may only get one or two more legitimate chances before the bottom falls out completely for him. Given how close he was with his dad, it’s safe to assume Hamlin is still working through the grieving process as well. The settlement of the lawsuit with NASCAR is sure to lift some weight off of his shoulders in the interim. By no means is Hamlin going to blow this season. He’s going to find his way to Victory Lane once or twice and be in the Championship hunt, per usual. As long as Denny Hamlin still has the fire inside of him to compete, and as long as he still has the driving skills necessary to make a run at earning that long-awaited Championship, expect him to remain a force on the track.

New Faces in New Places:

After a wild 2024 off-season that featured plenty of driver swaps and teams folding, the 2025 off-season was a lot calmer in the Cup Series. The biggest change: Connor Zilisch. The new Golden Boy. After a dominant season in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series that included 10 wins and coming up just short of a championship trophy, Zilisch will embark on his rookie campaign with Trackhouse Racing, driving the #88 car in 2026. Shane van Gisbergen, who previously drove the #88, will now drive the #97 moving forward.

So, what happens to Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez? He will be driving the #7 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports, replacing the outgoing Justin Haley, who will be racing for Kaulig Racing this season in their new Craftsman Truck Series program. Although he isn’t racing full-time (as of yet), Corey Heim will be driving 12 races in the #67 car for 23XI Racing, which could parlay itself into additional starts elsewhere, depending on his performance.

With plenty of transactions across the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and Craftsman Truck Series, there will be plenty of new names to learn as the season progresses.

New Tracks, Returning Tracks, and Schedule Changes:

No off-season is complete without NASCAR tinkering with the schedule (insert angry boomer noises). Let’s dive into what to expect:

The Championship Race returns to Homestead-Miami Speedway! After previously hosting the Championship Race from 2002-2019, Homestead-Miami takes up the torch again from Phoenix Raceway, who hosted the Championship Race from 2020-2025. Ripping the boards once again with a Championship on the line? Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick are all licking their chops as we speak. Phoenix will still host a second race in The Chase, serving as the seventh of the 10 playoff races.

Purists rejoice! Three road courses have fallen off the schedule this season. Say goodbye to Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, the Chicago Street Course, and the Charlotte Roval (insert sad SVG, Dinger, and Zilisch tears). Autodromo will be replaced by another unique road course, with NASCAR taking its talents back to the West Coast as it hosts its inaugural race at Naval Base Coronado. The 16-turn, 3.4-mile street circuit will test even the most seasoned road racers, with sharp turns, tight chicanes, and even racing across aircraft carriers and runways! The remaining two road course races will be replaced with mile-and-a-half tracks, with Chicagoland Speedway returning to the schedule for the first time since 2019 (Slide job! Slide job!), and the Charlotte Roval being replaced by the Charlotte oval during The Chase, with drivers returning to a two oval Charlotte schedule for the first time since 2017.

Not to be left out, the Craftsman Truck Series will also feature a new track this year, as the series visits the Streets of St. Petersburg for the first time. An annual favorite in the NTT IndyCar Series, St. Petersburg will be sure to test the up-and-coming drivers of the sport, as well as draw back IndyCar legend Dario Franchitti into NASCAR, who will make his first NASCAR start since 2008 and just his second ever Craftsman Truck Series start, as well as another IndyCar fan favorite, James Hinchcliffe, who will be making his NASCAR debut in this race.

The last major change revolves around North Wilkesboro Speedway and the All-Star Race. After three successful All-Star Races, the 0.625 asphalt oval of North Wilkesboro has been promoted back to the regular season schedule, as it will host the first points-paying Cup Series race at the track since the 1996 Tyson Holly Farms 400. With this change, where will the All-Star Race be held? Strap in, everybody, as the cheese grater concrete-banked oval of Dover Motor Speedway will host the All-Star Race for the first time. Automatic advantage to Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, regardless of the format.

Other schedule tweaks include:

• The Darlington spring race will move up one week earlier in the schedule and will be held the week before Martinsville.
• The Kansas spring race will move up two weeks in the schedule and take place the week before Talladega.
• Watkins Glen makes a big switch, moving from its traditional late summer location to springtime, taking place the week after Texas.
• Pocono moves up one week earlier in the schedule and will be followed by the inaugural race at Naval Base Coronado.
• The In Season Challenge (more on this below) will include the following tracks: Sonoma Raceway, Chicagoland Speedway, EchoPark Speedway, North Wilkesboro Speedway, and Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
• Richmond Raceway moves up one week earlier in the schedule and will immediately be followed by New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which moves out of The Chase to make room for Homestead-Miami Speedway.
• The Kansas fall race moves up one week earlier in the schedule and will be followed by two more intermediate tracks: Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Will Bad Brad Drive off into the Sunset?

With the old guard retiring, Brad Keselowski quickly finds himself becoming one of the elder statesmen of the sport. A Cup Series champion and team owner, Keselowski has had proven success both on and off the track. Since a runner-up finish in the Championship Standings in 2020, it’s hard not to notice Brad’s decline in performance. Over the past five seasons, Keselowski has just two wins, 33 top 5’s, 66 top 10’s, and one Pole in the last 180 races, not to mention leading less than 350 laps in each of the last five seasons and posting an average finish of 12.97 or worse during that stretch. It’s not all bleak, as he posted 11 runner-up performances during that stretch and has been in the hunt on the final lap plenty of times, most recently losing to Ryan Blaney at Phoenix by a mere .097 seconds. Keselowski was in an all-time slump at the start of last season, posting nine finishes of 25th or worse in the first 12 races before righting the ship and finishing 20th in the final Point Standings. Keselowski will also be racing at less than 100% this year, coming off a broken leg sustained less than two months ago. Now overseeing a successful three-car (sometimes four-car) organization and turning 42 years old yesterday, the end of full-time driving is certainly within sight for Brad Keselowski. Will he win again? I’m honestly not sure. He may pull off one final victory at Talladega, or possibly finally capture that elusive Daytona 500 victory he so desires, but like many great drivers, the bottom can fall out without warning. He could very much pull back and race some one-off races here and there while successfully managing his team into the next generation. Time will tell if this will be the final full-time drive of Brad’s career.

Rule and Procedural Updates:

No NASCAR off-season is complete without the governing body reviewing the year, seeing what went right, and then tweaking the rules just to piss off the boomers. As always, I’m already looking forward to the armchair crew chiefs chiming in with tone deaf takes as the season progresses. This off-season was a relatively quiet one in terms of rule changes, but there are some big ones.

The driver who drives the fastest lap of the race is awarded a one-point bonus, but some of the drivers only did so after wrecking out, making repairs, and coming back on the track (The new Larson Rule 2.0). Because of that, a driver is no longer eligible to earn the bonus point if their fastest lap comes after repairs were made in the garage. I personally think that’s a bit over the top. If your car is damaged and you still find a way to run the fastest lap, kudos to you. Well deserved. Folks only got up in arms about it because Kyle Larson was the one who was able to do it. Change my mind.

With the top three series using a different amount of lug nuts (single lug wheel in Cup Series, five lug wheel in O’Reilly and Trucks), NASCAR has adjusted the penalty for both of the lower series. If one lug is found loose after the race, the team loses pit selection for the following race. If two lugs are found loose, it’s a one-race suspension for the crew member and the team is fined ($5,000 in O’Reilly and $2,500 in Trucks). If four lugs are found loose, the team is disqualified and receives a last place finish for that race. Any rule that involves the safety of teams, drivers, and fans is good in my book.

With the sport getting younger and younger, the minimum age at certain tracks has been lowered accordingly. For races held on tracks of 1.25 miles in length or shorter, drivers in the Craftsman Truck Series must be 16 years old; drivers in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series must be 17 years old; and drivers in the Cup Series must be 18 years old. This is just a common-sense move. The sport is very youthful right now, and with so many up-and-comers rising through the ranks, the sport should be willing to get them as many opportunities as early as they can. The rules need to be tweaked from generation to generation, and this is a prime example.

The infamous Kyle Busch rule has now been revised. Cup Series drivers can now race more races in lower series if they choose to do so. Drivers with three or more years of Cup Series experience can race up to 10 races per season in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and up to eight races per season in the Craftsman Truck Series, excluding the regular season finale and The Chase races for both series. This is an increase from the old five-race limit, which was initially put in play because certain drivers (cough cough, Kyle Busch) would race and win in these lower series, thereby “stealing” wins away from the rising stars of the sport. I say let the drivers race! To be the best, you have to beat the best. Nothing can improve a driver’s confidence faster than beating a Cup star on Friday night or on a Saturday. Limiting those opportunities is detrimental to a driver’s growth. It gives them a chance to run with the best more often and to learn by watching them up close. Is that really a bad thing at this point?

The Joey Logano rule is also being enforced moving forward. When qualifying on drafting tracks, drivers can no longer deflect the air with their left hand. Drivers try to find every advantage they can, but I think we all breathe a little easier when a driver has two hands on the steering wheel at 190 mph.

Qualifying Metrics 2026:

NASCAR Cup Series 2026 Qualifying Procedures – Jayski’s NASCAR Silly Season Site

I’m too tired to type out all the details. Check out this link above from Jayski, which tells you everything you need to know about qualifying procedures and the qualifying metric for the 2026 season.

A New OEM: Dodge’s Triumphant Return to NASCAR:

After being a long-time fixture of the sport, Dodge left the sport of NASCAR following the 2012 season. But at last, the brand has decided to rejoin the ranks, making its debut in the Craftsman Truck Series with Kaulig Racing, who has shut down their O’Reilly Auto Parts Series team to go full throttle in the Trucks with Dodge. Matt Kaulig has never been one to shy away from a challenge, and he has already got big plans in place for the organization’s inaugural season, fielding five full-time trucks in the Craftsman Truck Series. NASCAR veterans Daniel Dye and Justin Haley have signed on with the team, while rising star Brenden “Butterbean” Queen will also make his full-time debut in the Craftsman Truck Series with the team after running some races for them last year in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and in the trucks with both Tricon Garage and Spire Motorsports. Kaulig took two different approaches to fill their last two truck seats, hosting a contest called Race For The Seat, which pitted 15 up and coming drivers against each other to earn a full season ride with the organization. Mini Tyrell won the competition and will make his NASCAR debut with the team, looking to build on a strong career in the CARS Late Model Stock Car Tour. The final seat serves as a “Free Agent Program,” which will essentially be made up of past champions, rising stars, and auto racing greats from various disciplines competing in one-off races with the team. Two drivers have been announced so far: Carson Ferguson at Martinsville and Tony Stewart at Daytona. I love this move for so many reasons. Seeing drivers you might not expect to see on the track, bringing in drivers from different disciplines, and just bringing in fan favorites is always a boon as far as I’m concerned.

NASCAR is also throwing the team a lifeline for the first three races (Daytona, EchoPark, St. Petersburg), allowing the teams to utilize an OEM provisional if there are any growing pains that cause them to not qualify for the race. If this were to happen, the team would start between 37th and 40th place. If it happens after the first three races, teams are shit out of luck. I think this is a plus for a new manufacturer joining the sport, but at the same time, it will rub other manufacturers the wrong way since it guarantees that team a spot, regardless of how good of a vehicle they bring to the track. Either way, I am very excited to see what Dodge and Kaulig bring to the table in the Craftsman Truck Series. If successful, this could be the first step in Dodge returning to both the Cup Series and the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, not to mention potentially opening the floodgates for other OEMs to enter the sport.

In Season Challenge Update:

After a successful inaugural edition last season, the In Season Challenge returns! The top 32 drivers in the standings at the start of the five-race challenge will be seeded like a March Madness bracket like before, but this season, there will be no re-seeding races leading up to it. They’ll just use the Driver Standings as they are, which is much easier to follow. Sonoma Raceway, Chicagoland Speedway, EchoPark Speedway, North Wilkesboro Speedway, and Indianapolis Motor Speedway will be the five host tracks this season, with half the field being eliminated after each respective race. It feels similar to last season, but is wildly different, with Sonoma and EchoPark swapping spots in the order, Chicagoland replacing the Chicago Street Course, and North Wilkesboro replacing Dover.

The one constant: the winner will be kissing those bricks before they get that massive payout. The highest finisher of the two drivers in the Championship Race at Indianapolis will take home a crisp $1,000,000! With the win and you’re in playoff format gone, we may see more desperation than normal from some of these mid-field and field filler drivers. With a chance of winning a race being nowhere on the horizon, a million-dollar payday could very much turn a driver’s season or an organization’s season around. Drivers are competitors, plain and simple. With so much money on the line, how much risk will drivers be willing to take? We saw plenty of drama last year (Ty Dillon had the biggest cajónes on the track last year), and we will undoubtedly see plenty more this summer! I, for one, cannot wait!

Rest in Peace to Those We Lost:

The off-season is only about three months in length, but we lost three major industry members whose impact on the sport will be felt forever.

We start with Michael Annett, who passed away at age 39 on December 5. No cause of death was given. Annett was one of my personal favorite drivers, rocking the Pilot livery throughout a good portion of his career (a personal favorite livery of mine, as well as one of my go-to stops while traveling), and was one of the true journeymen drivers of the sport. Making 436 career starts across the top three series, Annett rose through the ranks, driving for many underfunded teams, before landing at JR Motorsports in 2017. Annett scored his only career win in the 2019 NASCAR Racing Experience 300 at Daytona International Speedway. After sustaining a stress fracture in his leg midway through the 2021 season, Annett ultimately called it a career following an 11th place finish at the season finale in Phoenix.

We touched on it earlier, but Denny Hamlin’s father passed away from injuries sustained in a house fire on December 28. He was 75 at the time of his passing. Hamlin’s dad was his biggest supporter from the very beginning, from starting his own race team for Denny to race for to selling off four antique cars and taking out two mortgages on his home to help fund his son’s racing dream. Everything Denny does on the track is for his dad, which makes his runner-up finish in the championship all the more bittersweet (just bitter?). Denny’s mom also sustained injuries in the fire but is slowly making her way towards recovery.

Finally, the elephant in the room. The Biff. Greg Biffle was a true legend both on and off the track. A winner of a combined 56 races across the Cup Series, O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, and the Craftsman Truck Series, Biffle was a proven champion on the track, winning the Craftsman Truck Series Championship in 2000 and the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship. Ranked as one of NASCAR’s 75 Greatest Drivers in 2023, Biffle remained a factor in the sport following his retirement from full-time racing in 2016, mentoring the future generation of drivers, most notably Cleetus McFarland, and continuing to race in a variety of series, including Stadium Super Trucks, in addition to the occasional NASCAR start. Most importantly, Biffle became an incredible humanitarian in his later years, flying in supplies and helping those displaced by Hurricane Helene in 2024. Biffle’s lasting legacy is to be kind to your neighbor and to help those in need. Be like Biff, everybody! Greg Biffle passed away on December 18, 2025, at the age of 55 in a plane crash that also took the lives of his wife, Cristina, his kids, Emma and Ryder, pilots Dennis and Jack Dutton, and Craig Wadsworth. May they all rest in peace.

Craftsman Truck Series Strength of Field at Daytona:

Taking place tonight, the Fresh From Florida 250 at Daytona International Speedway may arguably feature one of the strongest fields in the history of the Craftsman Truck Series. With 44 drivers going for 36 starting spots, the potential of eight drivers going home (depending on the Dodge provisionals) is highly possible. Besides the Craftsman Truck Series regulars, several big names are looking to run this race in a one-off opportunity. Among the highlights: Cleetus McFarland, Michael McDowell, Tony Stewart, Travis Pastrana, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, and Carson Hocevar, just to name a few. If all of these drivers lock into the field, we are going to be in for a real treat tonight!

Stewart Friesen Returns:

After a solid season that saw him pick up his fourth career Craftsman Truck Series win, Stewart Friesen’s life was turned upside down, as he fractured his pelvis and right leg in a Super DIRTcar Series race last July. Kaden Honeycutt took over Friesen’s ride for the final eight races of the season following this release from Niece Motorsports. Honeycutt capitalized on his opportunity and took the #52 truck to a Championship Four appearance, finishing third at Phoenix behind Corey Heim and Ty Majeski. Friesen makes his long-awaited return tonight, and his team is growing too, as Halmar Friesen Racing will also field the #62 truck full-time this season for multiple drivers, starting with John Hunter Nemechek at Daytona International Speedway. Good luck to Stewart Friesen and Halmar Friesen Racing in 2026!

O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Ironman: Jeremy Clements Set to Break Record:

One of the great journeymen drivers of the sport, Jeremy Clements is set to make history this season. Clements has made 530 career starts in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series as we begin the 2026 season. The all-time leader in this series is Kenny Wallace, who made 547 starts in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. Clements is set to tie his record this summer at Pocono Raceway and move into first place all-time the following week at Naval Base Coronado. Jeremy Clements is the true definition of an O’Reilly Auto Parts Series life, making all 530 career NASCAR starts in this series, posting two wins, six top 5’s, 42 top 10 finishes, and leading 116 laps in his career to date. Clements is part of a dying breed. In a sport full of million-dollar corporate sponsors, Clements continues to find sponsors for each race while racing for his family-owned race team. Birdies and Burnouts wishes Jeremy Clements the best of luck in 2026 and looks forward to seeing him become the new Ironman of the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series!

RIP Kaulig Racing in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series:

After taking the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series by storm in 2016 and joining the Cup Series in 2020, Kaulig Racing has shuttered its O’Reilly Auto Parts Series team in order to focus on its latest endeavor: welcoming the Dodge Ram back to NASCAR as the first team to utilize the OEM in the Craftsman Truck Series. Fielding five full time trucks this season, resources are undoubtedly spread thin. Could Kaulig rejoin the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series down the road? Time will tell. But if not, here are the final stats: 330 races between 28 different drivers, 27 victories among seven different drivers and three Championship Four appearances amongst two drivers. It’s been a hell of a drive, Kaulig, and we look forward to seeing what you accomplish in 2026!

O O O O’Reilllllllllllly!!!!! Auto Parts! Series!:

After an 11-year title sponsorship from Xfinity, the second national division racing series has a new title sponsor. The Xfinity Series is now the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and will continue to serve as the final proving ground for drivers before they rise to the Cup Series. O’Reilly has long been affiliated with the sport of NASCAR, sponsoring multiple drivers and races in recent years, and expects to be in this for the long haul, as the series has only had four previous sponsors since its debut in 1982: Budweiser, Busch, Nationwide, and Xfinity. Being an auto parts company, this is such a fitting title sponsor. I look forward to seeing how O’Reilly Auto Parts is able to grow the brand both on and off the track as this partnership thrives into the future. But the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series doesn’t quite roll off the tongue as smoothly or quickly as Busch, Nationwide, or Xfinity Series. Here’s to the O’Reilly Series, and here’s to O-RAPS (don’t worry, it’ll catch on.)!!!

How Come Nobody Wants Corey Heim:

Corey Heim has had a whiz-bang of a career since making his debut in the Craftsman Truck Series in 2021. In 89 career starts in the series, Heim has had 23 wins and 68 top 10 finishes alongside a whole host of records, including arguably the greatest season of all-time in the Craftsman Truck Series in 2025 that included:

• Most wins in a season – 12
• Most top 5’s in a row in a season – 9
• Most laps led in a season – 1,627
• Most stage wins in a season – 23
• First driver to lead at least one lap in every single race of the season

Despite the dominance and proven success at every single track type, Corey Heim mind-bogglingly does not have a full-time ride for 2026. Currently, he has 12 races (1/3 of the season) on tap in the #67 (you really thought you would be safe from a six-seven reference?) car for 23XI Racing, with the rest of his schedule TBA. If I’m an owner, I would be crazy not to lock this driver in for the long haul. He’s proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can contend with the best of them. If I’m a sponsor, why would I not be doing everything possible to get my brand on his racing machine? Plenty of screen time, laps led, and victory lane trips seem like the perfect partnership for any growing business. Come on, owners and sponsors, do better!

Who Will Win Rookie of the Year:

Checks notes. Blinks a few times and checks notes again. There is just one driver making their full-time Cup Series debut this season. Connor freaking Zilisch. In case you were living under a rock last season, Zilisch had about as great of a year in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series as a driver can, posting 10 wins (including blocks of three straight and four straight victories), 20 top 5’s (including a series-record 18 in a row), and leading over 1,000 laps before finishing second in the Championship Standings to Jesse Love, who took control of his destiny in Phoenix to lock up one of the biggest Championship upsets in the history of the playoff era. By default, he will win the Rookie of the Year title, but he’s so good on so many track types, winning on short tracks, intermediate tracks, flat tracks, high banked tracks, and, most importantly, on road courses. Finally, a driver who can take the fight to Shane van Gisbergen! Zilisch has already gotten the best of him before, beating him head-to-head in an O’Reilly Auto Parts Series duel at Sonoma last summer. As long as he can avoid a slick car window (see the above photo), I expect Zilisch to win at least one road course race this season, maybe pull off a second victory somewhere, and lock himself into The Chase in his rookie campaign!

Which Drivers Will Win Their First Career Cup Series Race:

Connor Zilisch – See above.

This may sound surprising, but hear me out. He has not been in the best of equipment for the bulk of his career, but Ryan Preece proved to us that he belongs in the highest levels of NASCAR last season, posting three top 5’s, 14 top 10’s, and 27 top 20 finishes on the way to an 18th place finish in the Championship Standings (although he probably would’ve made the Playoffs last season had they been using The Chase format, but I digress). Preece ranked T-10 for most top 10’s, T-3 for most top 20’s, ranked 11th in average finish (15.69), and only posted two DNFs (wrecked out in the Daytona 500 and at Texas Motor Speedway). He has a ton of momentum after picking up the victory less than two weeks ago at The Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray and has also shown solid speed so far during Speedweeks. Preece grew up as a short-track racer in the northeast and has flexed his muscles on short tracks, intermediates, and flat tracks of late in the Cup Series. He may not be a sexy pick by any means, but Preece gets results by keeping the car clean and by staying patient on track as a race progresses. He’s paid his dues, and it is now time for Preece to shine. I predict that Ryan Preece will find Victory Lane this season and make The Chase for the first time in his career.

Surprise Picks to Make the Playoffs:

Connor Zilisch and Ryan Preece – See above.

We’re showing the love for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing this season, so strap in for some more ass-kissing. Much like his teammate above, Chris Buescher is an absolute bulldog out on the track. He went winless last year, but he also would’ve made the playoffs had The Chase format been utilized. Buescher had a strong campaign in 2025, with five top 5’s, 16 top 10’s, and 27 top 20 finishes on the way to an average finish of 14.33, which was the sixth-best average in the series among full-time drivers. Buescher also had just two DNFs, wrecking out of both Talladega races. Much like Preece, Buescher also toiled away for many years in junk equipment before finally getting a top-tier ride at RFK Racing in 2020. He may have gone winless last season, but Buescher has five wins in the three seasons (2022-2024) before that, winning on short tracks, superspeedways, and road courses. He has the versatility, he has the patience, and most importantly, he has the talent. With back-to-back finishes of 17th in the Championship Standings, Buescher will be chomping at the bit for more in 2026. Expect Chris Buescher to get back to victory lane this season and make some noise in The Chase!

Rounding out that RFK love, it’s time to talk about the man who puts the K into RFK. Brad Keselowski had a tale of two seasons last year, posting nine finishes of 25th or worse over the first 12 races versus six top 5’s and 13 top 10 finishes over the final 24 races to finish 20th in the Championship Standings. It’s not out of the realm to expect that Keselowski would’ve made a return to the postseason had he had a few more average finishes earlier in the season. Keselowskì had only missed the Playoffs two times prior (one of which was his rookie season), so he knows how to put together solid runs and be a threat deep in the year. But coming off a broken leg suffered less than two months ago and having just turned 42 years old yesterday, Brad’s career is coming to a wind-down. That being said, I think the cagey veteran still has a little gas left in his tank. I’m not certain he will find victory lane this year, but I predict that he will put together a consistent enough season to make The Chase.

Surprise Picks to Miss the Playoffs:

Damn, it’s hard to justify omitting a driver from The Chase that won five races last season, but Shane van Gisbergen is going to be up against it this season. With win and you’re in gone, drivers will need to rely on pure pace and consistency. Van Gisbergen’s five wins were also his only top five finishes of the season, and he put up only 16 top 20 finishes for the campaign, tied for last among those who made the Playoffs. With 12 finishes of 30th or worse, those are not good numbers for a driver looking to make The Chase. By no means will SVG fall off a cliff this season. He’s still the best road course driver in the sport, although rookie Connor Zilisch is bound to take him to his absolute limit this season. Expect van Gisbergen to log multiple road course wins in 2026 but miss out on The Chase for the first time in his career.

We’re taking the two-for-one special on this one. Richard Childress, our favorite flogged redneck (too soon?) and his two drivers at Richard Childress Racing, Kyle Busch and Austin “Silver Spoon” Dillon, are absolute grinders, mainly because they aren’t in Grade A equipment. Last season, Kyle Busch had three top 5’s, 10 top 10’s, and 23 top 10 finishes, while Austin Dillon had one win (Mr. Richmond himself), one top five, five top 10’s, and 18 top 20 finishes. Dillon made the Playoffs, while Busch missed out for the second straight season. If you had told me that Austin Dillon would have more victories in the last two seasons than Kyle Busch, I would’ve asked for you to share whatever dope you were smoking. Busch averaged a finish of 17.94 with just 2 DNFs, and Austin Dillon had an average finish of 20.81 with 3 DNFs. Dillon has only made the Playoffs on points once in his career. With win and you’re in gone, the only bright spot Dillon has is his grandpa owning the team. Busch, on the other hand, is still a dark horse to make The Chase. Yes, he hasn’t won since 2023, but he’s won 63 times in his Cup Series. He still has the driving skills necessary to contend, and, more importantly, he still has the passion. Your 2026 Daytona 500 Polesitter, Busch is on a 93-race winless streak, last taking the checkered flag at World Wide Technology Gateway in June 2023. At the end of the day, you’re only as good as your equipment, but Busch is too talented to go winless for much longer. I predict that Kyle “Rowdy” Busch will be in the hunt to make The Chase for the bulk of the season and end his winless streak along the way, but ultimately fall short of the postseason for the third straight season.

Another two-for-one special. It’s tough to fade drivers on A-List teams like Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, but that’s exactly what we’re going to do with Ty Gibbs and Austin Cindric. Despite a dominant career in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, Ty Gibbs has yet to parlay that into any success in the Cup Series, looking for his first win still as he kicks off his fourth full-time campaign. Gibbs has posted 17 top 5’s, 32 top 10’s, and led 833 laps during this stretch, but has averaged a 17.42 or worse finishing position during this time, making the playoffs just one time (2024 season). The only difference between Gibbs and Cindric is that Cindric has been able to find victory lane on three different occasions, including a victory in the Daytona 500 in his rookie campaign in 2022. The overall stats? Much bleaker for Cindric, with three wins, 12 top 5’s, 26 top 10’s, and 700 laps led during his FOUR seasons, not to mention posting an average finish of 19.92 or worse in each of the last three seasons. For a driver in top-tier equipment, Cindric is a severe underachiever. With Tim Cindric gone at Team Penske, Austin’s days in this ride are numbered. With his teammates winning a combined three championships during his tenure there, Cindric is very much the weakest link, showing his prowess only on drafting tracks, for the most part. Cindric’s three playoff appearances are attributed to the fact that he was able to find Victory Lane. With The Chase format, Gibbs will be a perennial bubble boy until he finds a way to find Victory Lane, but Cindric is absolutely cooked moving forward.

I won’t badmouth Josh Berry too much because I very much love Wood Brothers Racing. But that being said, the Wood Brothers benefited greatly from the win and you’re in playoff format, making the postseason each of the last two seasons thanks to Harrison Burton’s Daytona victory in 2024 and Josh Berry’s victory at Las Vegas last year. They’re a good team, but they just aren’t a top 16 team on raw speed. In two full-time seasons, Berry has one career win, five top 5’s, 12 top 10’s, and 303 laps led, which are respectable, but nowhere near where a team needs to be if they want to make The Chase comfortably. With an average finish of 21.67 and 22.72 in his last two campaigns, Berry will need to step it up if he wants to make a return trip to the Playoffs. With a combined 19 DNFs in his first two seasons, Berry and the Wood Brothers will really need to clean up those mistakes if they want to be a dark horse for The Chase. A short track stud with a car capable of running well on intermediate tracks as well, Berry definitely has the ability to win if all of the ducks line up in a row for his team. I won’t be shocked if Josh Berry wins in 2026, but I will be shocked if he qualifies for The Chase.

Which 16 Drivers will Make the Playoffs:

• Ross Chastain
• Kyle Larson
• Brad Keselowski
• Chase Elliott
• Denny Hamlin
• Ryan Blaney
• Chris Buescher
• Chase Briscoe
• Christopher Bell
• Joey Logano
• Bubba Wallace
• William Byron
• Tyler Reddick
• Alex Bowman
• Ryan Preece
• Connor Zilisch

Your 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Champion Is:

Why Christopher Bell Will Win:

Over the last four seasons, Christopher Bell has been on an absolute tear, posting 12 wins, 50 top 5’s, 84 top 10’s, 14 Poles, led 2,599 laps, and finished in the top five in the Championship Standings each of those years. Posting four DNFs or fewer in three of those four seasons, Christopher Bell is the poster child of consistency. So why doesn’t Bell have a Championship or two? He’s the victim of the old Playoff format. Other drivers getting hot at the right time, bad luck, whatever you want to call it, a Playoff format that only cares about winning is flawed and doesn’t always reward consistency. With The Chase coming back into the picture, this format rewards both wins and consistency, which falls right into Bell’s wheelhouse. Bell’s average finish has improved each season since joining the Cup Series in 2020, capped off by an average finish of 11.19 last season. Bell may not be the flashiest driver on the track, but he gets wins, maximizes his equipment on off days, and just makes very few mistakes as a whole. All of this adds up to Christopher Bell winning the 2026 Cup Series Championship and clinching the championship for Toyota for the first time since 2019!