The 2025 Cup Series season comes to a close today as it returns to Phoenix Raceway for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. A one mile asphalt dogleg oval featuring three degrees of banking on the backstretch, nine degrees of banking on the frontstretch and in turns one and two and eleven degrees of banking in turns three and four, Phoenix Raceway has challenged NASCAR’s best since 1988, and, most recently, has served as the host of the Championship race since 2020. Following today’s race, the highest finisher among the Championship Four drivers will be crowned the 2025 Cup Series Champion.
Strategy is pretty straightforward this week. Track position will be king this afternoon. Passing is so tedious at this track, so patience is an absolute must. The most effective way to pass is on pit road and on restarts. With drivers having the ability to go six and seven wide on the restarts, ground can be made up very quickly. In terms of pit strategy, four tires is the only correct answer. As we watched Corey Heim demonstrate on Friday night, four tires always win at the end of the day. Finally, drivers need to manage their equipment. As we saw during Practice, several drivers cut tires. Some were able to manage, but others got into the wall. Managing your tires and managing your brakes will go a long way towards making it to the end of 312 laps and a chance at not only a race victory, but a career-defining championship.
This race was first held in 1988 and has produced an incredible list of winners through the years. Kevin Harvick holds the record for most wins in this race, finding victory lane four times in his career. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano each have three wins in this race, while Davey Allison, Jeff Burton, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth are each multi-time Phoenix winners.
Last year’s edition was won by Joey Logano, who capitalized on a front row starting position by winning Stage 1 and leading 107 laps on the way to a Phoenix race victory and a third career Cup Series Championship. Teammate Ryan Blaney won Stage 2 and led 12 laps on the way to a runner-up finish in his quest for a second consecutive championship, Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron and Kyle Larson finished third and fourth after leading 19 laps and 13 laps on the day, respectively, and Christopher Bell finished in fifth after leading a race-high 143 laps. Chase Elliott led seven laps on the way to an eighth place finish, Alex Bowman led one lap on the way to a 14th place finish, pole sitter Martin Truex Jr. led nine laps on the way to a 17th place finish in his final full-time Cup Series start and Todd Gilliland led one lap on the way to a 20th place finish.
Coverage of the NASCAR Cup Series Championship can be seen on NBC, with pre-race beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.
2025 was expected by many (myself included) to finally be that breakout campaign for Ty Gibbs. Alas, it was another middling showing for the driver of the #54 for Joe Gibbs Racing, posting five top 5’s and 10 top 10’s against four DNF’s to sit 19th in the Driver Standings entering the final week of the season. Despite driving for a top tier team, Gibbs has been feast or famine in the desert, as he led 57 laps on the way to a third place finish in the spring 2024 race and finished outside the top 20 in his other four starts at the track, including wrecking out in each of the last two Phoenix races. No doubt that Gibbs has pace, as he laid down the fastest lap of Practice and ranked seventh on 5 Lap Averages. But alas, Gibbs fell off on long run speed and ultimately qualified in 25th position for today’s race. With two of his teammates racing in the Championship Four, Gibbs has the potential to make it there one day. But this weekend, expect more struggles for Gibbs on the way to another finish outside the top 20 at Phoenix.
For the second straight season, Chris Buescher is 17th in the Driver Standings, AKA the best driver to miss the playoffs. Although several drivers who were lower in the standings made the playoffs, they did so because they found their way to victory lane. Gone with this playoff format are the glory days of consistency paying dividends for drivers. With Buescher, he isn’t a flashy driver, but he gets results, posting five top 5’s, 16 top 10’s and 22 top 15 finishes, to go against only two DNFs. Buescher posted the ninth best average finish of 2025 with those numbers, a respectable 14.4, but at the end of the day, consistency doesn’t matter anymore, right? And speaking of consistency, Buescher has been an absolute model of consistency at Phoenix of late, posting four straight top 10 finishes at the track, including a fifth place showing in the spring and a best finish of second during the spring 2024 race. Buescher didn’t exactly wow during Practice, posting just the 27th fastest lap of the session, but he improved over the course of a run, ranking 23rd on 5 Lap Averages, 19th on 10 Lap Averages, 11th on 15 Lap Averages and 7th on 20 Lap Averages. With a ninth place starting position, Buescher is well primed to once again thrive at Phoenix. A win is unlikely, but a fifth straight top 10 finish is certainly within reach.
The 2023 Cup Series champion, Ryan Blaney left it all on the track last week, but a second place Martinsville finish was not enough to overcome finishes of 38th and 23rd at Las Vegas and Talladega, respectively. Overall, this was a season of what if Blaney, posting three wins, 14 top 5’s and 18 top 10’s, but also posting eight DNF’s, T-4 among all Cup Series drivers. Fortunately for Blaney, the Cup Series returns to one of his favorite tracks this week. The new King of the Desert, picking up the torch from Kevin Harvick, Blaney has done everything but win at Phoenix in his career, posting nine top 5’s, 13 top 10’s, 15 top 20’s and 443 laps led in 19 starts at the track. This weekend is once again setting up Blaney for another successful Phoenix race, as he laid down the second fastest lap of Practice and paced the field on 5, 10 Lap and 20 Averages. A fifth place starting spot for Blaney will lead to him being arguably the biggest threat among the non-playoff drivers this afternoon. Expect Blaney to lead some laps and be in the mix for the win all race long on the way to another top 10 Phoenix finish.
This was genuinely a difficult pick, as all four of the Championship Four drivers are capable of winning the Championship, not to mention that all four are previous Phoenix winners as well. That being said, Kyle Larson’s season has been an absolute roller coaster, winning three races early in the year, slumping throughout the summer after a disastrous Memorial Day Double attempt and eventually righting the ship late, posting three top 5’s and five top 10’s over his past six starts to make his third Championship Four appearance in the last five years. While most people think of Blaney and Harvick when it comes to Phoenix dominance, Kyle Larson has a pretty strong track record (once again, I think I’m hilarious) at Phoenix himself, with one win, 10 top 5’s, 14 top 10’s, 19 top 20’s and 395 laps led in 22 career starts at the track. Since moving to Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, Larson has been particularly strong, posting one win, five top 5’s (including in four of the last five Phoenix races), seven top 10’s and leading 324 laps over the last seven Phoenix races. This weekend has started off favorably for Larson, posting the eleventh fastest lap of Practice, pacing the field on 15 and 25 Lap Averages and ranking inside the top five on 10 and 20 Lap Averages. Rolling off from the third position today, I predict that Kyle Larson will cap his season in grand fashion, picking up his second Phoenix win and a second career Cup Series Championship.
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