The Cup Series picks back up this afternoon with the penultimate race of the season, as it visits Martinsville Speedway for the 2025 Xfinity 500. The oldest and shortest track on the NASCAR schedule, Martinsville is a 0.526 oval with asphalt on the straights and outer lanes of the turns and concrete in the lower lanes of the turns. Opened in 1947, Martinsville has been on the schedule each and every year since NASCAR’s debut in 1949. With the Championship Four next week in Phoenix being set following today’s race, expect plenty of fireworks as drivers become increasingly more desperate to keep their championship aspirations alive.
The biggest wild card today is tires (wow, what a shocker). Goodyear has brought a new left side tire to the track this weekend, which is expected to wear more aggressively over the course of a run. With temperatures in the high 50’s for most of the day, I expect tire wear to actually come into play this go around, so give an edge to the veterans that are able to manage their equipment effectively. Per usual, it’s a short track, so track position is king. Passing is damn difficult on short tracks in the Gen 7 car, regardless of how fast your car is, so drivers will need to be patient during the race as they make their move. Drivers will want to make their way to the front in any way possible to have a realistic chance of winning. Pit road and restarts will be open season, as more ground can be made up quickly in these areas. A pit road penalty equals an instant death sentence this afternoon, so drivers will need to be on their toes coming down pit road. Managing equipment is vital on short tracks. 500 laps of beating and banging is a very long time. The brakes will be pushed to their max, as will drivers’ tempers. Using your tires or brakes up early will make for a long day at the track. Patience and aggression are the key words of the day. Drivers will need to be patient to set up their passes on track, which can often take 10 or 20 laps to time the pass properly. But at the same time, drivers must be aggressive, because it’s a short track, and using the ol’ chrome horn is the only real way to make up ground. With four drivers seeing their championship dreams come to a close today, how aggressive will they become late in the going? How desperate will a driver become with a championship berth on the line? What is a driver willing to do when their back is against the wall?
The Xfinity 500 was first held in 1949 and has produced an incredible list of winners through the years. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip share the record for most wins in this race, finding victory lane six times each. Dale Earnhardt Sr., Fred Lorenzen and Cale Yarborough each have three victories in this race, while Ryan Blaney, Geoffrey Bodine, Denny Hamlin, Ricky Rudd, Tony Stewart, Herb Thomas, Rusty Wallace and Rex White are also multi-time winners of this race.
Last year’s edition was won by Ryan Blaney, who led 32 laps on the day, including the final 15, to take the victory and punch his ticket to the Championship Four. Chase Elliott finished second after winning Stage 1 and leading 129 laps, while his teammate, Kyle Larson, finished third after leading 71 laps. Austin Cindric finished in fourth place, while Denny Hamlin finished in fifth position. Brad Keselowski won Stage 2 and led a race-high 170 laps on the way to a ninth place finish, Bubba Wallace led six laps on the way to an 18th place finish and polesitter Martin Truex Jr. led the first 41 laps on the way to a 24th place finish. The end of the race was marred in controversy, as Christopher Bell attempted to execute a wall ride move on the final lap to advance like Ross Chastain did in 2022, only to be removed from the Championship Four by NASCAR. Ross Chastain, Austin Dillon and Bubba Wallace were also accused of race manipulation, with Chastain and Dillon trying to help William Byron advance and Wallace trying to help Bell advance. All three teams were fined, penalized with a deduction of driver points and their executives, spotters and crew chiefs being suspended from the Phoenix race the following week.
Coverage of the Xfinity 500 can be seen on NBC, with pre-race beginning at 1:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.
2025 has been a season to forget for Justin Haley, posting just one top five and two top 10’s to sit 31st in the Driver Standings for Spire Motorsports. With it being recently announced that Haley will be leaving the team following this season and being replaced by everyone’s favorite amigo, Daniel Suarez, Haley is simply going through the motions as this season draws to a close. Unfortunately for Haley, Martinsville ranks as arguably his worst track on the circuit, posting nine finishes of 27th or worse in nine career starts at the Paperclip. This weekend is shaping up to be another struggle for Haley, who logged only the 25th fastest lap of Practice and rolls out from an abysmal 34th place starting position. With Haley on the way out, Spire Motorsports has no incentive to give him a fast race car this weekend, especially at a track where he has struggled so much in his career. Haley just hopes to avoid the chaos on the way to a 10th straight finish outside the top 25 at Martinsville.
Like it or not, Bubba Wallace is having a career season, winning the Brickyard 400 to go along with six top 5’s and 14 top 10’s to rank inside the top 10 in the Driver Standings with just two races remaining. Wallace is usually thought of as a superspeedway or an intermediate favorite most of the time, but he’s starting to become pretty sporty on the short tracks of NASCAR, with Martinsville being arguably his strongest short track, posting a pair of top five finishes in his last three starts and four top 10’s in his last six starts at the track, highlighted by a best finish of third in the Martinsville spring race back in March. Wallace showed solid speed throughout Practice, laying down the fourth fastest lap of the session, leading the field on 5 Lap Averages and ranking inside the top five on 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Despite the pace, Wallace has some work to do this afternoon, as he starts from mid-pack in 21st position. It’s tough to back a driver for the win on a short track that is starting in the back half of the field, but Wallace has the pace, he has the recent success and, more importantly, he has the confidence in knowing he can drive with the best. Expect Wallace to make some moves early on on the way to another top 10 Martinsville finish.
2025 has been a season of resurgence for Chase Elliott, ending a 44-race winless streak and posting a pair of wins (Atlanta summer and Kansas fall races), 10 top 5’s and 17 top 10 finishes. Despite the success, Elliott now finds himself with his back against the wall after posting finishes of 18th at Las Vegas and 40th at Talladega. Sitting 62 points below the cutline, Chase Elliott has to win today to make the Championship Four in Phoenix next weekend. With that goal in mind, Elliott comes to a track where has found plenty of consistency and success in his career, with one win, eight top 5’s, 13 top 10’s, 17 top 20’s and 1,275 laps led in 20 Martinsville starts. So far, so good this weekend for Elliott’s championship aspirations, as he laid down the fastest lap of Practice and ranked inside the top five in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages, including pacing the field on 15, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Rolling out from eighth position this afternoon, I predict that Elliott will work his way forward early and be a factor all race long before seeing his title hopes draw to a close with a strong top 10 finish.
Kyle Larson has had such an up-and-down season, winning three of the first 12 races of 2025, going through a mid-season slump that saw him post five finishes of 28th or worse over the next 12 races and finally righting the ship in the Playoffs, posting a pair of runner-ups and four top 10 finishes over the last five races, which could’ve been even better had he not ran out of gas late in the going last week in Talladega. At the end of the day, Larson sits 36 points above the cutline entering Martinsville, which has to feel pretty good… unless someone below the cutline wins. Larson can’t just rest on his laurels this weekend, needing to earn points to solidify his spot in the Playoff Standings, with a win trumping all and automatically advancing him to the Championship Four. Martinsville was a struggle for Larson early in his career, posting just one top five and two top 10’s in his first 12 starts at the track. Since switching to Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, it’s been game on, posting one win (2023 spring race), six top 5’s, seven top 10’s and leading 332 laps in his last nine starts at the track. With three straight top 5’s and four straight top six finishes at Martinsville, Larson has been locked in of late and looks to lock in his spot in the Championship Four with a strong performance. Much like Elliott above, so far, so good this weekend, posting the fifth fastest lap of Practice and ranking inside the top five on 5, 10, 15 and 20 Lap Averages, pacing the field on 10 and 20 Lap Averages. Kyle Larson rolls out from third this afternoon, and I predict he will put on one of his signature clinics on his way to a second career Martinsville victory, a fourth victory in 2025 and a spot in the Championship Four next weekend in Phoenix!
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