2025 Tour Championship Predictions

The FedEx Cup Playoffs reach their conclusion this week as the PGA Tour returns to East Lake Golf Club for the 2025 Tour Championship. East Lake was designed by Tom Bendelow in 1908 and has undergone several redesigns through the years by Donald Ross, George Cobb, Rees Jones and Andrew Green. East Lake first hosted the Tour Championship and has served as the permanent host since 2004. This year, East Lake will play as a Par 70, 7,490 yard layout this week. Per usual, the winner of the Tour Championship will ultimately win the FedEx Cup and take home a crisp $10,000,000 payday.

The big storyline this year is no more starting strokes! That’s right, like every other tour event, the entire field will once again start at even par on Thursday, and after the 72 holes, the winner of the tournament will hoist the FedEx Cup, whether you started the week first or 30th in the standings. Given the course length, given an edge to the long ball hitters. Accuracy matters as well, but with East Lake fairways playing slightly wider this season, expect the off the tee specialists to thrive this week. Rain is going to be the other main storyline this week. With rain expected in the forecast all four days, players can be more aggressive coming into the greens. The course will be playing its length, so give an edge to the long iron players who are able to flight the ball high in order to get those approach shots to land close and stay close to the pin. Players will be ripping darts all weekend long, so expect plenty of birdies. Par was lowered from 71 to 70 this year, with the Par 5 14th hole now playing as a Par 4. Scoring can still be made on these Bermudagrass greens, but with the winning score typically falling around -10 each year, players will need to be methodical. They’ll need to know where they can attack, but more importantly, where not to miss. With plenty of sand and water ready to take in wayward shots, big numbers can creep up in a hurry. This is it. Players need to lay it all out on the line this week if they want to win the Tour Championship, the FedEx Cup AND take home that $10,000,000 payday. Which player is primed to pounce for the kill and become the latest FedEx Cup Champion?

The Tour Championship was first held in 1987 and produces one of the strongest non-major fields each and every season. Among the favorites this week are Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas, while players like Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, Chris Gotterup, Sungjae Im, Maverick McNealy and Andrew Novak are looking to make some noise as well, just to name a few.

Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy share the record for most wins in this tournament, each finding victory here three times. Phil Mickelson is the only other multi-time winner of this event, with two Tour Championship wins.

Last year’s edition was won by Scottie Scheffler, who shot a final round 67 to win by four strokes over Collin Morikawa. Sahith Theegala finished in third place, six strokes back, while Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott all finished T-4, eleven strokes off the pace.

Player to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://www.golfcanada.ca/articles/canadas-corey-conners-sits-t2-after-round-2-of-bmw-championship/

Corey Conners may have gone winless in 2025, but he still put together an excellent season, posting six top 10’s and 11 top 25’s in 20 starts to qualify for his fifth Tour Championship. Unfortunately for Conners, it is likely going to be another long week in East Lake, where he has finished no better than T-22 in any of his previous four starts. Conners has been stuck in neutral for most of the summer, posting just one top 10 finish (T-10 at The Open Championship) and two top 30 finishes in his last six starts. Conners’ recent woes can be placed squarely on the short game, losing strokes around the green in nine of his last 10 starts and on the greens in four of his last six starts, including in each of his last three starts. East Lake just doesn’t suit Conners and his style of play, which is a shame for one of the better ball strikers on tour. I predict another week of struggles for Corey Conners and another finish outside the top 20 this week at East Lake.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/c5y32z9dq7zo

Fresh off of a Creatine overdose (What is headlines I never thought I would write?) during the final round of the BMW Championship last week, Ben Griffin is looking to put a nice bow on what has been a breakout season for him, picking up his first two career PGA Tour victories at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans (with Andrew Novak) and the Charles Schwab Challenge, nine top 10’s and 14 top 25’s in 27 starts to enter the week in sixth position in the FedEx Cup Standings. Griffin is one of the rare players who is great all through the bag, ranking inside the top 60 in all six of the major Stroke Gained categories, excelling from the tee to the green and everywhere in between. Griffin has been especially locked in during this last portion of the season, posting one win, two top 5’s, five top 10’s and nine top 15 finishes in his last 11 starts. Griffin is making his Tour Championship debut this week, but don’t let that fool you. He’s playing the best golf of his career and continues to rise to the top of leaderboards week after week, no matter the course. A win would be improbable given the studs he’d have to defeat, but I predict that one more top 15 finish is in the cards this week for Ben Griffin.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://golf.com/news/why-russell-henley-called-penalty-on-self/?srsltid=AfmBOoqeo-MzfeSwXe0qxjIdT0WDqsXqIQb9h6e5dMkJb9sJZJgE9oA_

Russell Henley has had arguably his best, and most consistent, season in 2025, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard to go along with nine top 10’s, 11 top 25’s and just two missed cuts in 17 starts, not to mention entering the week ranked seventh in the FedEx Cup Standings and ranking a career-best of fourth in the Official World Golf Ranking. Henley is reminiscent of many of the great old school players, those who don’t hit the ball far, but make up for it with incredible ball striking abilities, ranking inside the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approach the Green and Around-the-Green, 11th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 35th in Greens in Regulation Percentage, 16th in Scrambling and 10th in Bogey Avoidance. Henley isn’t a flashy player by any means, but he goes out there and gets the job done, as evidenced by his six straight top 20 finishes entering this week. Henley’s has shown great promise at East Lake in his career, posting a pair of top 5’s and never finishing outside the top 15 in four Tour Championship starts. Henley finished T-4 in the Tour Championship last season, and I have no doubt he will finish in the top 10 again this week.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/46019715/ranking-tour-championship-field-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-fedex-cup

Was there ever a doubt? Scottie Scheffler has once again had an incredible season, picking up five wins at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, the PGA Championship, the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, The Open Championship and the BMW Championship, to go along with 15 top 10’s and no finishes outside the top 25 in 18 starts. Scheffler leads the tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Approach the Green, ranks inside the top 20 in all six major Strokes Gained categories, ranks 6th in Greens in Regulation Percentage, 3rd in Proximity to Hole, 2nd in Scrambling and first in about 30 other categories. Scheffler enters the week atop the FedEx Cup Standings, thanks to three straight top five finishes, including a pair of wins, and 13 straight top 10 finishes, a stretch which has seen him post all five of his wins this season. As much as I want to give him the trophy right now, Scheffler still has to go out this week and execute on the course. East Lake has been good to Scheffler in his career, winning the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup here last season and posting three top 5’s and four top 10’s in five Tour Championship starts. At the end of the day, the best players rise to the occasion, and this week is no different. I predict that Scottie Scheffler will close out another monster season with another Tour Championship victory, a $10,000,000 payday and become the first ever repeat winner of the FedEx Cup!


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