2025 Cook Out 400 Predictions

The Cup Series heats up tonight with the 2025 Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway. First opened in 1946, Richmond Raceway first hosted NASCAR in 1953 and has run its races on a D-shaped oval that features 14 degrees of banking in the turns, eight degrees of banking on the frontstretch and two degrees of banking on the backstretch since 1988. With just two races to go in the regular season, expect plenty of short track beating and banging under the lights as the playoff picture shifts one step closer to coming into focus.

The biggest strategy point tonight is tires. Drivers will have eight sticker sets of tires, plus the set they’ll be starting the race on. With Richmond being one of the most abrasive racing surfaces on the schedule, drivers will be hard pressed to managing their tires over the course of a long run, begging for four fresh tires at every possible opportunity and praying they have enough sets to make it to the end of the race. For that reason alone, give the advantage to the savvy veterans and those drivers who do a great job of managing their tires in general. As always, short track racing is a special type of racing. Close, side-by-side action, lots of beating and banging and the occasional dump and run to pick up positions. Drivers will want to remain patient, not abuse their equipment and take their time in setting up passes. 400 laps is a long way  to the finish. If you damage your car early on, you won’t stand a chance of maintaining track position, making for a long night at the track. Finally, track position is king. Passing is so difficult on short tracks in the Gen 7 car without using the ol’ chrome horn. Because of that, drivers will want to make hay on restarts and on pit road. Finding your way to the front is so important at this style of track, but with the tire falloff, there aren’t really any strategy calls to get to the front. Drivers will need to be patiently aggressive and find the right balance to work their way forward under the lights. As always, short track racing is a marathon, not a sprint.

The Cook Out 400 has long been a staple on the NASCAR schedule, with the first edition taking place in 1958, and has produced an incredible list of winners through the years. Richard Petty has the record for most wins in this race, finding victory lane seven times in his career. Bobby Allison won this race five times, Rusty Wallace and Darrell Waltrip each won this race four times, while Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are three time winners of this race. Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Cotton Owens, David Pearson, Speedy Thompson, Martin Truex Jr. and Joe Weatherly are also multi-time Richmond winners.

Last year’s race was won by Austin Dillon, who led 35 laps and controversially wrecked Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano on the final lap to take home the win. Hamlin led a race high 124 laps on the way to a runner-up finish, Tyler Reddick led nine laps on the way to a third place finish, Bubba Wallace finished in fourth position and Ross Chastain rounded out the top five. Christopher Bell won Stage 1 and led 122 laps on the way to a sixth place finish, Kyle Larson led 17 laps on the way to a seventh place finish, Carson Hocevar led two laps on the way to an eighth place finish, Chase Elliott led five laps on the way to a ninth place finish, Daniel Suarez won Stage 2 and led 93 laps on the way to a 10th place finish and Logano led two laps on the way to a 19th place finish.

Coverage of the Cook Out 400 can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race beginning at 7 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 7:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

With the bulk of the road courses done for the season, it is back to reality for Shane van Gisbergen, who, fresh off a victory at Watkins Glen last weekend, has four wins (all on road courses) and five top 10’s (also all on road courses) to sit in 25th position in the Driver Standings, but also sitting in 2nd position in the Playoff Standings, courtesy of all those Playoff Points he built up with his road course victories. Unfortunately for SVG, the schedule returns to an oval this week, a short track, no less, which has been anything but a cake walk for him this season, finishing 30th or worse on all tracks totaling a mile or less in length this season. Making his Cup Series debut at Richmond, van Gisbergen hasn’t shown much chance of a change coming this week, logging the 32nd fastest lap of Practice before qualifying in 27th position for tonight’s race. Expect plenty more left turn struggles for our favorite Kiwi on the way to another finish outside the top 25 on short tracks.

Dark Horse:

The defending winner of this race, we all remember the controversial finish surrounding Austin Dillon, who led late and lost the lead on the final restart before dumping both Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin to claim the victory, his first since 2022. That being said, Dillon has surprisingly had a great track record at Richmond in his career, posting one win, a pair of top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 14 top 20’s and 91 laps led in 21 career starts. Dillon’s 2025 season has been far from ideal, posting just four top 10 finishes and eight top 15 finishes to sit in 28th position in the Driver Standings, albeit better than his position at this time last season, but sill in a must-win situation this week or next week if he wants to make the Playoffs. Last season’s run was no fluke for Dillon, who laid down both the 11th fastest lap of Practice and the 11th fastest lap of qualifying yesterday. Richard Childress Racing as a whole has shown great speed so far this weekend, with Dillon’s teammate, Kyle Busch, leading the way on 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages, while Dillon ranked inside the top 10 on 5, 10 and 15 Lap Averages and inside the top 5 on 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. A repeat win may be one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history, and isn’t even out of the realm given his pace so far this weekend, but I’m taking Austin Dillon to back up his victory with a quiet, and clean, top 10 finish.

Top 10:

Christopher Bell has put together a great season to date, posting three wins, nine top 5’s and 14 top 10’s to sit in 4th position in the Driver Standings. Bell hasn’t won since his three straight victories in the first four races, but he’s been heating up again in late summer, posting a pair of top 5’s and three top 10’s in his last five starts. Bell has never won at Richmond, but he’s a consistent threat anytime the Cup Series shows up here, posting four top 5’s, seven top 10’s and leading 221 laps in nine career starts at the short track. Bell didn’t show the greatest pace in Practice, posting only the 14th fastest lap of the session, but he did qualify 8th for tonight’s race. Joe Gibbs Racing has always run well at Richmond, and tonight will be no different. Expect Bell to be running upfront all night long on the way to another top 10 finish at Richmond.

Winner:

I hate that I’m starting to like this guy. Aggressive, outspoken and continuing to get better with age, Denny Hamlin has somehow managed to embrace both his elder statesman role and his role as a villain. Hamlin continues to flex his driving skills in 2025, posting four victories, 11 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s to slide into 3rd position in the Driver Standings, all the while missing a race for the birth of his third child. Hamlin has always been a short track stud and has absolutely dominated at Richmond in his career, with five wins, 20 top 5’s, 24 top 10’s, 31 top 20’s and 2,367 laps led in 36 career starts. Hamlin’s last 11 starts at Richmond? Nothing short of incredible, with two wins, nine top 5’s and 708 laps led during this stretch. If not for being right hooked by Austin Dillon coming back to the finish line last year, Hamlin would’ve swept the Richmond races last season and added another Richmond victory to his total, too. Hamlin didn’t show much aggression in Practice yesterday, but he did manage to lay down the third fastest lap of Practice on the way to a 4th place qualifying result. I predict that Hamlin’s will excel in managing his equipment, staying patient and ultimately put on a driving clinic on his way to a sixth Richmond victory and his fifth victory of 2025!