The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week as the PGA Tour visits Caves Valley Golf Club for the 2025 BMW Championship. Designed by Tom Fazio, Caves Valley Golf Club was opened in 1991 and will play host to the PGA Tour’s best for the second time, hosting the BMW Championship previously in 2021. This week, Caves Valley Golf Club will play as a Par 70, 7,601 yard layout. Following this tournament, players ranked inside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings will move on to the third and final round of the Fedex Cup Playoffs next week and play in the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
Caves Valley Golf Club is a much different course compared to when the tour last visited in 2021. The course was lengthened by 50+ yards, Par was lowered from 72 to 70, new hazards were added and the rough has been lengthened considerably. Despite the changes, many things remain the same. Ball striking is vital as always due to the thick rough awaiting wayward shots, but the tee box specialists have an edge with the course length. Hitting it 300+ yards from the tee certainly doesn’t hurt this week. Course management is vital, as well. Accuracy from the tee matters, but avoiding the sand, the water hazards and the woods certainly goes a long way towards finding success. With Par being reduced from 72 to 70, I’m almost certain we won’t see the winner reach -27 this year. But with the bentgrass greens drying out and firming up as the week goes on, give an edge to the elite putters on tour, especially those who are able to adapt quickly and hold their nerves on fast green complexes, all of which were rebuilt and beefed up since the tour’s last stop here. With Caves Valley Golf Club only hosting the PGA Tour on one other occasion, no player truly has a distinct advantage, which opens things up for some potentially unexpected faces at the top of the leaderboard. The Tour Championship is next week, so this is the final chance for players to punch their ticket to East Lake. We have a good idea of the majority of the players who will be there in a week’s time, but will any players from outside the top 30 put together an incredible week to keep their season alive? Which players will crumble under the pressure and see their season come to an end?
The BMW Championship was first held in 2007, replacing the now defunct Western Open, one of the most prestigious tourneys in golf history. Serving as a part of the FedEx Cup Playoffs since inception, the BMW Championship produces an elite field, with the best of the best showing up and laying it all on the line. Among the favorites this week are Ludvig Åberg, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas, while players like Thomas Detry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ryan Fox, Kurt Kitayama, Taylor Pendrith and Xander Schauffele are looking to play their way into the top 30 and into a spot in the Tour Championship, just to name a few.
Four players hold the record for most wins in this event, with Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson and Tiger Woods all winning the BMW Championship twice in their career.
Last year’s edition was won by Keegan Bradley, who posted an even par round of 72 in the final round to hold off Ludvig Åberg, Sam Burns and Adam Scott by a single stroke. Cam Davis, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim and Xander Schauffele all finished T-5, four strokes off the pace.
Tom Hoge has been coasting to the finish as this season comes to a close, posting six missed cuts in his last 10 starts, with his T-7 finish at the Memorial Tournament presented by Mastercard being his only top 40 finish during this stretch. Things just haven’t gone Hoge’s way this season on the course, losing strokes in five of the six major Strokes Gained categories and ranking outside the top 100 in Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy Percentage, Greens in Regulation Percentage and Strokes Gained: Putting, all red flags at a course as long as this one that also produced a winning score of -27 the last time the tour played here. Hoge finished T-49 in this event the last time it was held at Caves Valley Golf Club, although the field contained 70 players last time compared to the 50 this season. Regardless, I predict that Hoge’s season will come to a pitiful close this week with a finish outside the top 35.
Harry Hall has put together a solid season on tour in 2025, posting four top 10 finishes and 13 top 25 finishes in 23 starts to slot in 45th in the FedEx Cup Standings, guaranteeing him that he will play in all of the Signature Events in 2026. Hall is not the best ball striker on tour, but he makes up for it with an elite short game, ranking 14th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, 6th in Scrambling and 1st in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Hall has been on an absolute heater on the greens of late, gaining 1.00 or more strokes in six of his last 10 starts and 0.50 strokes or more in each of his last eleven starts. Hall’s consistent play of late hinges squarely on this stat, posting two top 10’s, seven top 20’s and 10 straight top 30 finishes dating back to May. A win would be unhearlded given the strength of field, but I predict that Hall will do his best to move into the top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings by finishing inside the top 20 this week.
Firmly in the mix for Player of the Year, Rory McIlroy has had a stellar 2025 campaign, picking up three wins, eight top 10’s and 12 top 25’s in 14 starts, including victories at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, THE PLAYERS Championship and a long-awaited Masters Tournament victory to complete the career Grand Slam. McIlroy is one of the best drivers of the golf ball today, ranking 11th on tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 2nd in Driving Distance, averaging a massive 323.4 yards per drive. Pair that with the fact that McIlroy ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and you’ve got one of the true elite players each and every week, regardless of course. McIlroy finished in 4th place the last time the BMW Championship was held here, and enters the week on the heels of three straight top 10 finishes, highlighted by a T-2 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. I predict that Rory will be a factor for much of the week and go on to pick up another top 10 finish.
2025 is the season that Cameron Young has been waiting for, picking up that long-awaited first win in his 94th career PGA Tour start at the Wyndham Championship to go along with six top 10’s and nine top 25’s in 22 starts. Much like McIlroy above, Young is one of those players with the rare ability of both mastering the long ball and having a deft touch on the greens, ranking 35th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 23rd in Driving Distance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Young does come as a risk, given that he struggles with his irons, ranking outside the top 130 in both Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and Greens in Regulation Percentage. Young comes in with plenty of confidence and momentum, finishing in the top five in four of his last seven starts. That success rests squarely on the putter, gaining a stroke or more on the greens in four of those starts and over two strokes on the greens in two of those starts, including a season best 2.62 strokes during his victory at the Wyndham Championship. Now that Young has that first victory, the pressure is off, and the sky is the limit. I predict that Cameron Young will keep up his good form and pick up his second career victory at the BMW Championship!
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