The regular season draws to a close tonight for the Cup Series as it takes to the track at Daytona International Speedway for the 2025 Coke Zero Sugar 400. Opened for racing in 1959 and hosting the Cup Series every year since, Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5-mile superspeedway that features 31 degrees of banking in the turns, 18 degrees of banking in the tri-oval and three degrees of banking on the back straightway. The top 16 drivers in the Playoff Standings following the conclusion of tonight’s race will qualify for the Playoffs, which begin next week at Darlington Raceway. With roughly half the field needing a win to qualify for the Playoffs, expect plenty of bold moves as driver try to avoid the Big One and take their season to the next level with a trip to the Playoffs.
What’s the strategy? Fuck if I know. I don’t have a crystal ball. Avoid the Big One, and hope you’re making the right moves at the right time all race long to set yourself up for the final lap. Drafting tracks are always a crapshoot. Expect the usual fuel conservation strategies, chaotic, green flag pit stops and lots of big pushes at less than ideal times. No one is safe. The Big One can happen at any time to any driver from first to last place. At the end of the day, drivers are just going to do everything they can to get to the front and hope that they don’t cause the Big One or get caught up in it. All it takes is one dumbass to throw a shit block and ruin the day for 20 drivers (Looking at you, Joey Logano, Wrecky Spinhouse and Hurricane Hocevar). Today’s race isn’t so much much skill as it is being lucky and being in the right place at the right time. There really isn’t a right or wrong strategy at this type of track. With qualifying being washed out due to weather, drivers have yet to turn a lap on the track this weekend. Expect plenty of movers and shakers early on and loads of chaos all race long, especially since drivers will be worrying about Mother Nature and those pesky summer storms that can pop up at any given moment. Expect plenty of aggression, bold moves and a thrilling conclusion to the regular season at the World Center of Racing.
The Coke Zero Sugar 400 dates back to 1959 and the list of winners reads like a true list of Hall of Famers, along with the occasional underdog winner thrown in for great measure. David Pearson has won this race the most times, visiting victory lane five times in his career. Tony Stewart and Cale Yarborough each won this race four times in their career, Bobby Allison, Jeff Gordon, Richard Petty and Fireball Roberts won this race three times each, and Dale Earnhardt Sr., Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bill Elliott and A. J. Foyt are also multi-time winners of the Coke Zero Sugar 400.
Last year’s edition was won by Harrison Burton, who passed Kyle Busch for the win on the final lap, his only lap led on the day, to earn his first career Cup Series victory and the 100th career victory for Wood Brothers Racing. Kyle Busch finished in second after leading eight laps, Christopher Bell finished in third place, Cody Ware finished in fourth position and Ty Gibbs rounded out the top five. Bubba Wallace finished in sixth after leading 16 laps, Brad Keselowski finished in eighth after leading eight laps and Chris Buescher finished in 10th after leading 10 laps. Carson Hocevar led one lap on the way to an 11th place finish, Chase Briscoe led two laps on the way to a 14th place finish, Austin Cindric led 15 laps on the way to an 18th place finish, Kyle Larson led five laps on the way to a 21st place finish, Todd Gilliland led five laps on the way to a 23rd place finish, Josh Berry won Stage 1 and led nine laps on the way to a 26th place finish, William Byron led one lap on the way to a 27th place finish, Pole sitter Michael McDowell led 26 laps on the way to a 30th place finish, Joey Logano won Stage 2 and led a race-high 34 laps on the way to a 31st place finish, Justin Haley led 21 laps on the way to a 32nd place finish and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. led two laps on the way to a 33rd place finish.
Coverage of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 can be seen on NBC tonight, beginning at 7 PM EST.
Driver to Fade:
When you race like a fuckhead, you rarely finish at the front. Case in point, Joey “I don’t lift at drafting tracks” Logano. Logano is always a threat to win in the draft, leading loads of lap behind the wheel of the #22 for Team Penske at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta in his career. The problem is, that bullheaded attitude means you’re more likely to wreck. Logano has led 158 laps in his last seven starts at Daytona. He did finish inside the top five in both races in 2023. However, those the lone highlights, as he has finished outside the top 30 in each of his last three Daytona starts, despite leading 30 or more laps in all three of those races. Drafting tracks have been an absolute wash for Logano in 2025, finishing 35th in the Daytona 500, 12th at the Atlanta Spring race, 39th at Talladega and 36th at the Atlanta Summer race. Logano will start from fourth position tonight, and with all three Team Penske drivers starting in the top five tonight, expect them all to be up front and leading laps early. I predict that Logano will either cause the Big One inside the final 10 laps or be a part of the Big One and finish outside the top 30 for the fourth straight Daytona race.
John Hunter Nemechek has put together the best ever season for the #42 Toyota for Legacy Motor Club, with one top five, six top 10’s and 10 top 15 finishes to slot in 26th in the Driver Standings. When you think drafting specialist, the safe bet is that Nemechek isn’t the first driver, or even among the first 10, that come to mind. But at Daytona, Nemechek is an absolute stud. No, he’s never led a lap here, and, no, he’s never even finished in the top 10 in a Stage. But Nemechek knows how to survive and keep himself in the running on the final lap. In five career Daytona starts, Nemechek has never finished outside the top 15 at the track, highlighted by a career-best finish of 5th at the Daytona 500 this year. Nemechek has had an average year outside of that on the drafting tracks, finishing 10th at the Atlanta Spring race, 30th at Talladega and 28th at the Atlanta Summer race. Nemechek rolls out from deep tonight from the 34th starting position, but will undoubtedly work his way through the field and put himself in prime position late in the going. A win is what it will take for Nemechek to make the Playoffs, but I predict that Nemechek will avoid the carnage and finish inside the top 15 once again at Daytona.
The last driver projected to qualify for the Playoffs entering today, Alex Bowman has had a solid year, posting six top 5’s and 14 top 10 finishes to sit in 9th position in the Driver Standings and 16th in the Playoff Standings, 60 points ahead of Chris Buescher in 17th. As long as a new driver doesn’t win, Bowman will lock into the Playoffs following tonight’s race. Much like Nemechek above, Bowman is another one of those sneaky drivers on drafting tracks. In 18 Daytona starts, Bowman has a pair of top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 12 top 20 finishes and 53 laps led, including top 10 finishes in four of the last seven Daytona Summer races and four top six finishes in his last five Daytona starts overall. For the most part, Bowman has been a stud on drafting tracks this season, finishing 6th in the Daytona 500, 26th at the Atlanta Spring race, 7th at Talladega and 3rd at the Atlanta Summer race. Bowman has turned it on over the last 10 races, posting four top 5’s, seven top 10’s and eight top 12’s over this summer stretch, highlighted by a runner-up performance last week at Richmond. Bowman starts the race on the front row tonight from the second position and will undoubtedly be a factor late in the going. Expect Bowman to run up front this evening, grab some stage points, avoid the Big One and clinch a Playoff spot with a strong top 10 run.
This Summer has been the Summer of Bubba, whether you like it or not. Bubba Wallace picked up a historic win earlier this summer, taking the victory in the Brickyard 400 at the iconic Indianapolis Motor Speedway, to go along with two top 5’s, six top 10’s and seven top 12 finishes over his last 12 starts. Ranking 10th in the Driver Standings (But I thought he wrecked every week?) heading into the final week of the regular season, this is the first time Wallace has come to Daytona with a spot already guaranteed in the Playoffs prior to the start of the race. With the pressure off, Wallace has the ability to drive a little freer, a little more aggressively and with a lot more confidence, given his recent victory. Wallace has had a lot of success at Daytona in his career, posting five top 5’s, six top 10’s, 14 top 20’s and leading 65 laps in 16 starts at the track, highlighted by runner-up finishes in the Daytona 500 in both 2018 and 2022 and a runner-up finish in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 in 2021, not to mention his victory in one of the Duel races back in February. Wallace starts from deep tonight, beginning the race from 22nd starting position. I predict that Wallace will drive the #23 Toyota Camry to the front and make all the right moves on the way to his second victory of the season in the Coke Zero Sugar 400!
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