2025 THE PLAYERS Championship Predictions

The PGA Tour gears up for its flagship event this week as it returns to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship. Built in 1980 by legendary golf course architect Pete Dye, TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 layout that will play at 7,352 yards for this year’s edition

The Stadium Course is a true test for the greats of the game. With thick rough, nearly 100 bunkers and water in play in some form on every hole, this course is not for the weak of heart. Players truly need to bring their A-game to have a chance. TPC Sawgrass is not a course you want to play when you’re not hitting it well because the course will absolutely eat you alive, as many players quickly realize each year. To find success, having great control of your ball striking is more vital than ever. Hitting the fairways, hitting the greens and successfully avoiding all of Pete Dye’s strategically placed hazards (the water, the pot bunkers, the palm trees, need I go on?) will separate the men from the boys as the week goes along. The Stadium Course has traditionally been a stout test, with the winning score usually hovering around -12 or -13, but the last two editions have finished at -17 and -20, thanks to some dominant performances by Scottie Scheffler. For the most part, avoiding the big number is key to being in contention. Birdies are still a premium, but just taking what the course gives you and not making careless mistakes that lead to big numbers goes a long way in an event like this one. With lightning fast greens featuring lots of slope, the field will be challenged in trying to both hit and hold those greens. Having a solid short game will come in handy if a player misses the green, but a hot putter truly trumps all, especially in a marquee event such as this one. Will the cream once again rise to the top in his iconic tournament? Or will there be some major upsets along the way? Which player will add their name to the history books by winning “golf’s fifth major”? One thing is for certain. THE PLAYERS Championship always produces.

The field for this year’s THE PLAYERS Championship is arguably the strongest field of the season, featuring 48 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking, including the elites of Ludvig Åberg, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas, as well as many up and comers, including Akshay Bhatia, Brian Campbell, Nick Dunlap, Harry Hall, Tom Kim, and Aaron Rai, just to name a few.

THE PLAYERS Championship has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since 1974, with many of the greats of the game hoisting the trophy in this event. Jack Nicklaus holds the record for most wins in this event, taking the victory three times in his career, although all of them took place before the event moved to TPC Sawgrass. Other multiple-time winners of this event include Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Hal Sutton, Davis Love III, Tiger Woods and Scottie Scheffler.

Last year’s edition was won by Scottie Scheffler, who became the first player to win THE PLAYERS Championship in back-to-back years by firing a final round 64, erasing a five stroke deficit to win by a single stroke over Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman and Xander Schauffele. England’s Matt Fitzpatrick rounded out the top five, finishing four strokes off the pace.

Player to Fade:

Look, Matthieu Pavon may be ranked inside the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking, but fuck, he sure isn’t playing like it. In seven starts on tour this season, Pavon has a pair of missed cuts and a best finish of T-42 coming at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. Pavon’s ball striking stats? Absolutely atrocious, losing strokes in four of the six major Strokes Gained categories and ranking outside the top 100 in both Driving Accuracy Percentage and Greens in Regulation Percentage. With the best of the best teeing it up this week, Pavon’s poor play will only be amplified in a stacked field. Pavon missed the cut in his lone start in this event last season and will most certainly miss the cut again this week.

Dark Horse:

Aaron Rai had his breakthrough campaign in 2024, picking up his first career win at the Wyndham Championship and posting six top 10’s and 13 top 25’s on his way to a 23rd place finish in the FedEx Cup. Rai hasn’t been nearly as flashy so far this season, but he’s just been lurking off in the shadows, waiting to pounce, with a top five at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and a pair of top 15’s at The Sentry and the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Like last year, Rai’s bread and butter this season has been his ball striking abilities, ranking inside the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Approach the Green, 30th in Greens in Regulation Percentage and 6th in Driving Accuracy Percentage. Rai has had moderate success in THE PLAYERS Championship so far in his young career, finishing T-19 in his debut in 2023, making his first career ace on the iconic 17th hole in the process, and T-35 last year. Rai’s game feels almost tailor-made for a challenging course like TPC Sawgrass and if he does what he does beat, he will sneak his way up the leaderboard as the week goes on. A win isn’t out of the realm, but a top 20 finish seems certain this week for Rai.

Top 10:

Hideki Matsuyama kicked off 2025 in style, winning The Sentry by shooting a PGA Tour record -35, carding 34 birdies or better on the way to the victory. Matsuyama has cooled off since, but has still played well, logging four top 25 finishes in his six starts since. There aren’t many holes in Matsuyama’s game, as he ranks inside the top 35 in five of the six major Strokes Gained categories this season and has a deft short game, ranking first on tour in Scrambling and second in Sand Save Percentage. More importantly, Matsuyama has been an absolute stud at TPC Sawgrass, finishing in the top six here each of the last two seasons, in the top 10 three of the last five seasons and was the first round leader in 2020 before the final three rounds of the tournament were cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Matsuyama has seven top 25 finishes to go against just two missed cuts in 10 starts in THE PLAYERS Championship and is absolutely one of the favorites here each spring. Matsuyama will be in the mix for the win this week, but mark him down for a third straight top 10 finish at TPC Sawgrass.

Winner:

The current leader of the FedEx Cup Standings, Sepp Straka is having a career season, winning The American Express to go along with three top 10’s and six top 25’s in eight starts. Straka has very few holes in his game, gaining strokes in five of the six major Strokes Gained categories, and is an absolute ball striking machine this season, ranking 11th in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 2nd in Greens in Regulation Percentage. Straka is also a solid player in terms of plotting his way around the course, ranking 4th in Birdie or Better Percentage and 11th in Bogey Avoidance. Straka has also been getting better each year in THE PLAYERS Championship, logging top 20 finishes in two of the last three seasons, with his best finish of T-9 coming in 2022. Straka may not be the sexiest pick on the leaderboard or be the biggest head turner in the game, but at the end of the day, great play by great players should be rewarded accordingly. Straka checks a lot of boxes for finding success at TPC Sawgrass and I predict he will be rewarded accordingly by winning THE PLAYERS Championship!