2025 Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube Predictions

Two words. Christopher Bell. And there you have it- the start to the 2025 season in a nutshell. The Cup Series heads back to the desert this weekend in the form of the mile and a half-long intermediate oval that is Las Vegas. It’s a home race for the likes of Kyle Busch and Riley Herbst, both of which are in search of win #1 on the year. Vegas has been a bit of a wild card (heh, no pun intended) for most of the dominant teams in the series- no team has really held an edge in terms of dominance here over recent years. That’s what makes it such a role of the dice. It’s 267 laps around the desert this afternoon at 3:30 PM, and plenty of trends from the weekend to pick up on so far, so let’s get to it.

Driver to Fade:

It’s hard to put him here this week. Justin Haley’s had some pretty decent showings in recent weeks and, frankly, may be primed for a decent performance today. But his practice times and qualifying efforts have been subpar this week. He was 16th fastest in practice yesterday and starts P33 today. We’re taking Haley for the fade today. 

Dark Horse:

Love seeing Josh Berry succeed in middle-of-the-road equipment. He’s been solely within camera shot almost every race this season, and it feels like his specialty (skill) tracks are still ahead of him. Didn’t practice the best yesterday, but rolls off P7 this afternoon. He finished P4 last week and has every reason to be optimistic this weekend. Look for him to carry that momentum throughout the day.

Top 10:

Got a case of the spins yesterday and starts dead last today as a result. But that’s no reason to count Ryan Blaney out- he’s got the team, knowledge and support to get him right back on his feet this afternoon. Team Penske seems to always run well at Vegas- teammates Joey Logano and Austin Cindric begin P2 and P3, respectively, this afternoon, so no reason to believe Blaney won’t be drinking the same potion they are. He finished 3rd here last year. Expect it again. 

Winner:

Surprising pick, right? Wrong. Christopher Bell is on an obvious hot streak, and it feels like it won’t take luck to put him in victory lane today. He hasn’t qualified particularly well all year long, but is still putting it up front when the time is right.  He starts from the tail of the field this afternoon for some mechanical changes, and that’s even after some quick practice times yesterday afternoon. We’re taking Bell for the rare feat of four-in-a-row this afternoon in Vegas! Let’s roll the dice!