2025 Shriners Children’s 500 Predictions

The Cup Series continues this afternoon with the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway. A one-mile, asphalt, dogleg oval, Phoenix Raceway first opened in 1964, has hosted NASCAR annually since 1988 and has served as the host of the Championship race for the Cup, Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series since 2020. After three straight weeks of drafting tracks and road courses, the real contenders will start to come into focus, as we may be possibly see an early preview of what is to come for the Championship race in November.

The biggest storyline coming into the race will be tires, as Goodyear will have both its primary tire compound, as well as the option tire compound, for the drivers to use today. The option tire compound brings increased grip and speed to a car, but the tire wears away at a faster rate than the primary tire compound. The first time this option tire is being used outside of a short track setting, drivers will need to figure out which tire compound will best serve their on-track goals and find the right balance of both risk vs. reward and when to use each tire type over the course of the race. Drivers will have six set of primary tires and two sets of option tires to use at their discretion over the course of the race, but they will have to start the race on the primary tire compound. Besides that, drivers will look to keep it clean over the course of the day. Restarts can be absolutely chaotic, with cars going four, five and sometimes even six wide once they pass the start/finish line on a racing surface that balloons to roughly 62 feet at its widest. Carnage can stack up in a hurry if a driver isn’t careful. Qualifying produced a lot of surprises yesterday, with several drivers showing great short run speed that don’t always run upfront all the time. Carson Hocevar, Josh Berry, Erik Jones, Michael McDowell, Justin Haley, need I go on? Meanwhile, drivers who had great long run speed are mired back in the field to start the race, with favorites like Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain and Chase Briscoe all starting outside the top 10 this afternoon. Expect a lot of comers and goers early on in this race and tons of great action on the track, Finally, this race often serves as a preview of who we can expect to be in the hunt for a title come November. With the winner of the spring race often qualifying for the Championship Four, the drivers who find the most success today are almost certain to be coming back in November with an even loftier goal in mind.

The Shriners Children’s 500 has been held annually since 2005 and has produced an incredible list of winners throughout the years. Kevin Harvick has won this race the most times, finding Victory Lane five times in his career. Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman serve as the only other multiple-time winners of this race, each finding victory twice.

Last year’s edition was won by Christopher Bell, who took the lead late and led 50 laps on his way to the victory. Chris Buescher finished in second, while Ty Gibbs finished third after leading 57 laps. Ford drivers Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney finished the race in fourth and fifth. Martin Truex Jr. finished in seventh after leading 55 laps, while Toyota drivers Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin finished 10th and 11th after they each led 68 laps on the day. Todd Gilliland finished in 17th place after leading 14 laps during the race.

Coverage of the Shriners Children’s 500 can be seen on Fox Sports 1, with pre-race starting at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

The prevailing storyline of the week, Katherine Legge is going to be the first woman to start a NASCAR Cup Series race since Danica Patrick in 2018, becoming the 17th woman to do so in the process. Legge is a very successful driver in auto racing, having raced in a variety of different disciplines and series, including Champ Car, IndyCar, IMSA, the ARCA Series and the Xfinity Series, among others. Despite her success and despite some of the delusional expectations of some for her this afternoon, let’s get off the Crazy Train and look at the facts. She’s 44-years-old; she’s making her very first Cup Series start; and she’s driving the #78 for B. J. McLeod at Live Fast Motorsports, arguably the slowest cinder block on the track at any track that isn’t a drafting track. Legge was the slowest driver on the track in Practice, ranking among the worst on 10, 15 and 20 Lap Averages. Legge starts dead last today, 37th on the grid. Unless there happens to be a ton of carnage on the track today, I predict Legge will go down a lap early on and continue to stagnate from there. We love this opportunity for Legge, but we hate it at the same time, because other than running some laps, Legge isn’t setting herself up for success by any means this afternoon. Lock in Legge for a finish outside the top 30 in her Cup Series debut.

Dark Horse:

Michael McDowell has quietly gotten off to a solid start with his new team at Spire Motorsports in 2025, posting finishes of 11th at Daytona, 13th at Atlanta and 11th at Circuit of the Americas, good enough to rank 8th early on in the point standings. McDowell’s consistent start has served as a pleasant surprise to start off this season, and he is trying his best to keep the good mojo flowing this weekend at Phoenix, where he has found success of late. McDowell has a fast car thus far this weekend, laying down the second fastest lap of the entire Practice session, pacing the field on 10 Lap Averages and ranking inside the top 10 on 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Starting 7th this afternoon, McDowell is looking to capitalize on his recent success in this race, qualifying in the top 10 in this spring race for the third straight year, not to mention three finishes of 13th or better in his last four starts at the track, including a best finish of 8th last spring. A win is highly unlikely because, let’s be honest, it’s still Spire Motorsports at the end of the day, but McDowell certainly has a great chance to prove just how far the organization has come by picking up his first top 10 finish of the season.

Top 10:

For a long time, Kevin Harvick was the Desert Fox, posting nine wins, 20 top 5’s and 31 top 10’s in 42 career starts at Phoenix. Once he retired following the 2023 season, the question became: who would pick up that torch? Enter Ryan Blaney. Before some of you fucking jump me, yes, I am well aware that Blaney has not won at Phoenix in his career. That being said, Blaney has posted great numbers at Phoenix in his career, even more so lately, and is clearly the heir apparent to pick up the torch from Harvick. In 18 starts at Phoenix, Blaney has posted nine top 5’s, 13 top 10’s, 15 top 20’s and led 443 laps, not to mention winning his first Championship at the track in 2023. Blaney has been on a heater of late at the track, posting nine straight top 10 finishes and seven straight top five finishes, going 6-10-4-4-2-2-2-5-2 during that stretch. Pretty consistent, and pretty damn impressive if you ask me. Blaney has continued to make Phoenix his playground this weekend, laying down the 14th fastest lap of Practice, but showing in the process that his car is built for success on the long run, ranking inside the top five on 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Starting 12th this afternoon, Blaney has a little ground to make up to start the race, but will easily work his way forward and be a threat for the win on the way to a 10th straight top 10 finish at Phoenix.

Winner:

William Byron has gotten off to a great start in 2025, winning the DAYTONA 500 for the second consecutive season, finishing 27th at Atlanta after being in the mix for the win late and posting a runner-up finish at Circuit of the Americas after a great battle with Christopher Bell for the win. Byron has been an absolute stud at Phoenix of late, posting three top 5’s and four top 10’s in his last five Phoenix starts, including take home the win in this race in 2023 and leading 178 laps during that stretch. The current leader of the point standings, Byron has gotten off to another solid start at Phoenix, posting the 6th fastest lap of Practice and showing solid speed on the long run, ranking inside the top seven on 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Where is Byron going to start today? From the Pole position, of course. I rarely back the Polesitter in a race, but my gut just keeps telling me that Byron has the right balance of both short run and long run speed to put on an absolute show this afternoon, not to mention that the last time Byron won the Pole for a race, he went on to win the race, taking home the victory at Circuit of the Americas last spring. All of this adds up to a William Byron victory, taking home his second win of the season and his second career Phoenix win in the Shriners Children’s 500!