2024 XFINITY 500 Predictions

The Cup Series heats up this afternoon with the penultimate race of the season, as it visits Martinsville Speedway for the 2024 XFINITY 500. Martinsville first opened for racing in 1947 and has contested NASCAR races each and every year since 1949, making it the oldest track still on the schedule annually. The 0.526-mile “paperclip” oval is the shortest track on the schedule, but is likely to produce the most fireworks, as the Championship 4 will be set following the conclusion of today’s race.

To find success today, track position is king. Martinsville is notorious for being a difficult track to pass on, even more so in the Next Gen-era. Doesn’t matter how good of a car you have, if you find yourself back in the pack due to a penalty or a bad trip down pit road, it could very well be game over for the day. Finding your way to the front and staying there is such a huge benefit for drivers. It takes upwards of 20 to 30 laps at times to set up a driver for a pass at this track, so patience is most certainly a virtue. 500 laps is a long time to make your way forward, but as the laps tick away, drivers will start to get more aggressive, and in some cases, more desperate, and without a doubt, will start to utilize the ol’ chrome horn to push their way forward. As is often the case on short tracks, cautions breed cautions, so if things get hairy late, the gloves will come off and it will truly be a free for all. Finally, just manage your equipment. Like I said before, 500 laps is a long time, but you’ll be utilizing the brakes a ton today and will no doubt be beating and banging for position in the corners, with that inside line being the preferred line all day long. Aero is so important, especially on tracks like this where passing is so incredibly challenging. If you use your stuff up early, it’ll be a long afternoon for sure.

The XFINITY 500 was first held in 1949 and has produced an incredible list of winners over the past 75 years, including Red Byron, Herb Thomas, Frank Mundy, Jim Paschal, Lee Petty, Speedy Thompson, Jack Smith, Bob Welborn, Fireball Roberts, Rex White, Joe Weatherly, Nelson Stacy, Fred Lorenzen, Junior Johnson, Richard Petty, Bobby Isaac, Earl Ross, Dave Marcis, Cale Yarborough, Buddy Baker, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Darrell Waltrip, Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace, Geoffrey Bodine, Harry Gant, Ernie Irvan, Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Ricky Craven, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney, just to name a few.

Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson all share the record for most wins in this race, finding victory six times each. Fred Lorenzen, Cale Yarborough and Dale Earnhardt Sr. each have three wins in this race, while Herb Thomas, Rex White, Geoffrey Bodine, Rusty Wallace, Ricky Rudd, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart have each won this race twice.

Last year’s edition was won by Ryan Blaney, who led 145 laps on the day on the way to his first Martinsville victory, as well as a championship the following week in Phoenix. Aric Almirola finish second, while Denny Hamlin finished third after leading a race-high 156 laps. Chase Briscoe and Joey Logano rounded out the top 5, while Martin Truex Jr. finished 12th after leading 47 laps and Chase Elliott finished 17th after leading 83 laps.

Coverage of the XFINITY 500 can be seen on NBC, with pre-race beginning at 1:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/10/27/tyler-reddick-michael-jordan-nascar-title/

A winner just one week ago at Homestead-Miami, Tyler Reddick should be a mere mortal again as he returns to Martinsville today, a track that has been a complete enigma for him in his career. Reddick may have finished 7th here in the spring race, but other than that, there has been little success here, with just one additional top 10, three top 20’s and four finishes of 20th or worse in his other eight starts at the track. So far, this weekend has been a struggle for Reddick, logging the 34th fastest lap of Practice and qualifying in 31st position for today’s race. Big picture, Tyler Reddick is racing for a championship next weekend and at this point, can try some different things today to see if he can find more pace and consistency at Martinsville. Reddick will improve on his starting position, but will undoubtedly finish outside the top 15 today.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://theracingexperts.com/ryan-preece-posts-first-top-5-of-2024/

2024 has not been a particularly strong season for Ryan Preece, earning just one top 5 and 5 top 10’s to sit in 26th place in the Point Standings after 34 races. However, there is room for hope, as Preece has had some good vibes at Martinsville of late. Preece finished 9th here in the spring race, qualified 9th here last fall and led 135 laps here in spring 2023 after starting from the Pole position. Preece showed solid long run speed during Practice, ranking inside the top 10 on 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Preece will roll off from 8th position today and looks to continue his late season momentum, having earned five top 12 finishes in his last 12 starts, including a 7th place finish at the most recent short track race at Bristol and a 10th place finish last weekend at Homestead-Miami. A win might be too tall of an ask, but another top 12 finish for Preece is certainly within reach.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://frontstretch.com/2024/03/25/up-to-speed-chase-elliott-still-searching-for-speed/

After a disappointing 2023 season, Chase Elliott rebounded in a big way in 2024, with one win, 10 top 5’s and 17 top 10 finishes, good enough to currently rank inside the top 8 in the Point Standings and still have a chance to win a second championship with just two races to go. Elliott is one of several drivers to have great success at Martinsville in their career, with one win, six top 5’s, 11 top 10’s and 1,104 laps led in 18 career starts. So far this weekend, Elliott seems to be right in his wheelhouse, logging the 5th fastest lap of Practice, showing both strong short run and long run pace along the way. Elliott is in “essentially” a must-win situation today, as he enters the race 43 points below the cut line. Fortunately for Elliott, he rolls out from the 2nd position today, starting on the front row alongside Martin Truex Jr. Expect Elliott to log a lot of laps led early, as he has led 49 or more laps in eight different races at Martinsville in his career. Elliott has done very well on short tracks this season, but has not won on one. Elliott will undoubtedly be in the mix late, but will see his championship hopes come to close following another top 10 finish.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://www.speedsport.com/nascar/nascar-cup-series/martinsville-triumph-hasnt-sank-in-yet-for-bell/

For whatever reason, some drivers just shift into clutch mode when the Playoffs get here. Enter Christopher Bell. No, he has not won in the Playoffs in 2024, but has been incredible seemingly at every track on the schedule. Take out his 14th place finish at Watkins Glen and his other finishes have been 4-5-7-6-2-2-4. Pretty damn good. Bell has found success with his back against the wall, winning at both the Roval and Martinsville in 2022 when facing must-win situations each time. Fortunately for Bell, he’s not in a must-win situation today. Far from it, actually. Bell is 29 points above the cutline and a solid points day should realistically be enough to advance to a third-straight Championship 4 for the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver. This weekend though, Bell has a fast hot rod. Bell logged the 4th fastest lap of Practice and ranked inside the top 5 on 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages, including pacing the field on 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Bell did not have the best qualifying session, qualifying 15th for the race today. Martinsville is a tough track to pass on, but if you have a fast car and a good handling car, you can still make your way to the front. It may not be the sexiest storyline, but give me Christopher Bell to take home the coveted grandfather clock with a victory in the XFINITY 500 at Martinsville Speedway!


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