2024 Straight Talk Wireless 400 Predictions

Three races to go and here we are at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where room for error is non-existent, and room for mediocrity is even less. Storylines entering Sunday afternoon are numerous, and current point standings tell more than half the story. Four playoff drivers enter this race substantially below the cutline, those among them including defending champion Ryan Blaney, perennial playoff favorite Chase Elliott, Mr. Controversial himself, Denny Hamlin, and regular season champion Tyler Reddick. Each of these men are 27 points or greater to the deficit. Homestead is a track that never fails to deliver- for years, it was the final contest to crown the Cup Series champion. The track is notorious for fuel and pit strategies, as well as the slipping and sliding that tends to happen on restarts and late race dashes. It’s unforgiving. It’s challenging. It’s Homestead. Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney put on a damn fine show just a year ago at this very track, all until Larson attempted to thwart a late race pit attempt for Ryan Blaney and ended up totaling his, and nearly Blaney’s, car off the pit road entrance barriers. Will this year deliver again? Probably. Here we go.

Driver to Fade:

I know, total copout, right? I admit it… it is. But the stats are there to back this pick. Corey LaJoie averages a measly 26th in 3 starts (since he joined Spire, whom he no longer drives for) and has eked out just one Top 20. He begins 33rd here on Sunday afternoon in Rick Ware equipment that, at this point in the year, is unlikely to catapult him to contender status. Not trying to be rude, just saying…

Dark Horse: 

Speaking of Spire Motorsports! Justin Haley boasts a lot of promise if given decent equipment, of which he has with Spire, and is seemingly a perennial dark horse at intermediate and superspeedways. On Sunday afternoon, he begins 10th and turned the 13th fastest practice time on Saturday morning. His previous starts here don’t back this pick. He averages a 25th place finish here, but it’s seemingly a stat that has yet to be proven if presented with good equipment. Regardless, he’s got nothing to lose and everything to gain still.

Top 10:

Tyler Reddick’s racked up two wins at this track in the Xfinity Series and nabbed the Pole for Sunday afternoon’s start. Last week, his Championship 4 playoff hopes took a nosedive when he went airborne on the front stretch at Las Vegas. He’s 30 points below the cutline- it seems paramount that he has a perfect next two races if he even hopes the crack the Championship 4, barring any twist of events that would benefit his current position. Alas, a win is imperative. I’ve learned the hard way that picking the seemingly obvious choice for winner never gets me too far, so we’ll go with Reddick to finish a solid Top 10 on Sunday afternoon.

Winner: 

Have you ever heard babyfaced Christopher Bell drop the f-bomb? No? Take a listen to his radio following his finish last weekend in Vegas. Not a happy camper. He’s gonna be hungry. He starts 3rd on Sunday afternoon. He stole the win here last fall when Blaney and Larson kicked the bucket following a fascinating Tom-and-Jerry-esque battle for 3/4ths of the race. Bell has been so silent, but amazingly dangerous all year. He’s not going to want to leave it up to a pesky Martinsville Speedway next weekend, where he made an insurmountable run this past spring to finish a barren P35 (though he does have a Martinsville win under his belt from 2022). Look for a strong run and a win on Sunday afternoon for Mr. Bell!