Atlanta Motor Speedway is now a 1.54-mile drafting track. That is approximately a mile less track than Talladega (2.66 miles) and Daytona (2.50 miles). A compacted drafting track like Atlanta makes it exciting for fans, grueling for drivers, and especially anxiety-provoking for the 16 drivers entering Race One of the playoffs. One mistake in such close quarters can collect a handful of the playoff drivers. No practice plus being a drafting track means Atlanta is a wild card race. Did someone say three-wide finish for the win? Welcome to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, Round of 16: Race One. Gentlemen, fasten your seat belts.
Driver to Fade:
The last time NASCAR came to Atlanta, we witnessed one of the most incredible three-wide finishes in history. Daniel Suárez won that race to punch his ticket into the playoffs by .003-seconds over Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch. Since claiming victory, Suárez has cracked the top 5 one other time in the 2024 season. Additionally, he had early exits out of the two races at Daytona and finished outside the top 25 at Talladega. The #99 rolls off in 30th place to start his championship campaign. Lightning will not strike twice for Daniel, as we expect him to finish outside of the top 25.
Dark Horse:
Hear me out before you claim, “Martin Truex Jr. is not a dark horse pick”. Truex Jr. has certainly built himself a NASCAR Hall of Fame career as he plans to exit from full-time racing at the end of this season. The future hall-of-famer’s Achille’s Heel has consistently been superspeedways/drafting tracks. It is hard to make sense of the many years of misfortune at the drafting tracks for the driver of the #19, with average finishes at superspeedways for Truex Jr. being considerably lower than any other configuration of track throughout his career. This week’s dark horse pick has MTJ driving a clean race to finish inside the top 15.
Top 10:
The #11 driver has his work cut out for him after having mechanical issues in qualifying, resulting in a 38th place starting position. Denny Hamlin is putting together one of his strongest seasons yet as a championship favorite heading into the playoffs. Crew Chief Chris Gabehart and company will have the Mavis Toyota Camry in contention quickly Sunday. We forecast a strong top ten finish for Denny Hamlin to start the quest for the elusive first Cup Series championship.
Winner:
Going off a one-lap average alone, the blue ovals dominated qualifying Saturday. Front Row Motorsports and Team Penske have five of the top ten positions as they come to green on Sunday. At a drafting track, it would be a lot easier to pick a manufacturer instead of name a winner. Nevertheless, one driver looks to avenge a second-place finish in the spring by .003 seconds and is rolling off on the front row alongside Michael McDowell. Atlanta Motor Speedway kicks off NASCAR’s championship season. The #12 team and Ryan Blaney turned up the wick at the right time last season on his way to claiming the championship. We have the defending series champion punching his ticket to the Round of 12 early!
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