The Cup Series concludes its regular season tonight with one of most prestigious races of the year, the 2024 Cook Out Southern 500. Darlington Raceway was first opened in 1950 and has been a mainstay on the schedule ever since. The iconic, egg-shaped oval features 25 degrees of banking in the corners of turns 1 and 2 and 23 degrees of banking in turns 3 and 4. Darlington serves as arguably the most unique racetrack on the schedule each and every year and continues to flummox drivers 75 years later.
To find success in this race, track position is king. Darlington requires a lot of patience in order to make passes, as the preferred line is up around the top. Passing is possible down low, but it usually only works if the driver to the outside is loose or having an issue. The easiest way to gain track position is if you have a solid pit crew and they get you a few spots each time you come to pit road. But on track, you have to find that right balance. If you get too close to the wall, you can easily earn a few Darlington stripes and bring an early end to your race. But you can also pick up a few mph’s on your competition if you get right up on that wall, so that risk vs. reward balance is also something for drivers to keep in mind. Pit strategy is pretty straight forward. This track eats up tires, so you’re going to want four, fresh Goodyears every time you make that left down pit road. But if there’s a caution late, do you get aggressive and take two or possibly no tires at all to try and steal a victory? Well, we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Finally, you got to manage that equipment. Darlington is abrasive, with rough asphalt, lots of banking, and perhaps a little aggression from using the chrome horn (unless you’re Austin Dillon, of course). 500 miles is a long time, and with that late summer heat, you have to take care of your car so it will take care of you and get you to the end.
The Cook Out Southern 500 was first held in 1950 and has truly produced a Who’s Who of winners covering the history of the sport. Past winners include Johnny Mantz, Herb Thomas, Fonty Flock, Buck Baker, Curtis Turner, Speedy Thompson, Fireball Roberts, Jim Reid, Nelson Stacy, Larry Frank, Ned Jarrett, Darel Dieringer, Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, LeeRoy Yarborough, Buddy Baker, Bobby Allison, David Pearson, Terry Labonte, Neil Bonnett, Harry Gant, Bill Elliott, Tim Richmond, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Darrell Waltrip, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton, Bobby Labonte, Ward Burton, Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch. Denny Hamlin, Regan Smith, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones and Kyle Larson, just to name a few.
Jeff Gordon holds the record for most Southern 500 wins, finding victory lane six times in his career. Cale Yarborough has five career wins here, while Bobby Allison took the checkered flag four times. Herb Thomas, Buck Baker, David Pearson, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Bill Elliott and Denny Hamlin have three Southern 500 victories, while Fireball Roberts, Harry Gant, Terry Labonte, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick and Erik Jones each have a pair of victories here.
Last year’s edition was won by Kyle Larson, who took the lead late and led the final 55 laps to pick up his first Southern 500 victory. Tyler Reddick finished second after leading 90 laps on the day, with Chris Buescher, William Byron and Ross Chastain rounding out the top 5. Denny Hamlin swept the stages and led a race high 177 laps on the day, but ultimately finished 25th after having to make an extra pit stop late in the race for a loose wheel.
Coverage of the Cook Out Southern 500 can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race beginning at 5:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 6 PM EST.
A surprising fade, but hear me out. Christopher Bell may have won the Xfinity Series race here yesterday, but in the Cup Series, his past results at Darlington are hardly impressive. In 10 career starts, Bell has one top 5, two top 10’s and an average finish of 16.4. Bell has had a fantastic 2024 season to date, with three victories, eight top 5’s and 14 top 10 finishes, but there are certainly better drivers out on the track this evening. I predict that Bell will continue to struggle at The Lady in Black and log another finish outside of the top 10 in this Crown Jewel race.
Dark Horse:
Carson Hocevar may be a rookie in the Cup Series, but lately, he has been driving like a wily, old veteran, logging four straight top 12 finishes at a variety of different track types (12th at Indianapolis, 8th at Richmond, 10th at Michigan and 11th at Daytona). Overall, Hocevar has logged four top 10’s and 16 top 20 finishes this season, which isn’t too bad considering he’s driving for Spire Motorsports. In 12 starts since the All-Star Race, Hocevar has finished outside the top 20 on just two occasions (21st at Charlotte and 24th at the Chicago Street Race), proving that consistent results ultimately pay off, as he sits in 21st place in the regular seasons, just 13 points away from cracking into the top 20 and just 21 points ahead of Josh Berry in a tight Rookie of the Year battle. Hocevar is looking to have himself a career-defining weekend, showing great pace throughout Practice and qualifying a career-best second, starting on the front row for the first time in his career. Could Hocevar win? Sure, anything is possible, given that Harrison Burton just pulled off the upset victory last weekend at Daytona. Realistically, I predict that Hocevar will keep his streak alive and bring home a fifth straight top 12 finish to close out the regular season.
Cue up that Jaws music; Bubba Wallace smells blood in the water. The driver who currently sits 21 points below the cut line has been heating up late in the regular season, with a pair of top 5’s and five top 10’s over his last seven starts, which is good enough to put him at 13th in the regular standings, but not quite enough to put himself on the correct side of that cut line. With that being said, Wallace is a mentally driven driver. When the good results are clicking off, Wallace seems to loop together a bunch of solid finishes in a row. When the highs are high, you ride them until they fall. Wallace seems to also find success at certain tracks year in and year out and Darlington is one of those tracks. Wallace has four straight top 10 finishes at the Track Too Tough To Tame, highlighted by a 5th place finish in May 2023. Wallace showed solid short-run speed in Practice and capitalized on that during the qualifying session, nabbing the Pole for the first time in the 2024 season. Wallace is going to give it his best effort to drive his way into the playoffs, whether that be with a win or on points. A fifth straight top 10 finish at Darlington feels like a lock for Wallace, but don’t be surprised if Wallace is in the mix for a victory late.
Hendrick Motorsports is in the midst of its 40th anniversary campaign, and each of their drivers has found victory in 2024. For William Byron, he seems to find himself in the mix at all of the important races, winning the Daytona 500 (NASCAR’s Super Bowl), winning at Martinsville (Hendrick Motorsports’ Super Bowl), as well as a road course win at Circuit of the Americas for good measure, not to mention a 3rd place showing at the Coca-Cola 600, another Crown Jewel race. With three victories, eight top 5’s and 13 top 10’s, Byron will easily be one of the favorites as the playoffs commence. But Byron would love to add another Crown Jewel trophy to his collection, and his Darlington stats are quite solid, with one win, four top 5’s and six top 10’s in 12 career starts, including four straight top 8 finishes at the track. Byron laid down the fifth fastest lap of Practice and will roll off from 8th place tonight. No doubt in my mind that Hendrick (Notice that there is no S at the end of the name you fucking heathens?) Motorsports and William Byron will once again find victory lane in this 40th anniversary season!
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