2024 Procore Championship Predictions

The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits Silverado Resort’s North Course for the 2024 Procore Championship. First opened in 1955 and undergoing redesigns by by Robert Trent Jones Jr. in 1966 and Johnny Miller in 2011, the North Course will play as a Par 72, 7,123 yard layout this week.

The Procore Championship kicks off the eight event Fall Series, where players inside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup Standings look to improve on their current positions and players outside the top 125 look to move inside the top 125 and retain their tour card for the 2025 season. To find success this week, players will need to go low. Birdies are king this week, as every winner of this event has finished at -14 or better for the week, with two of the last four finishing at -21. That being said, you have to put yourself within striking distance on the greens, so having superb iron control is vital. Knowing where to place your approach shots on these challenging green complexes will give you an edge on the competition. In that same vein, players who are accurate from the tee have an edge as well. Although the course isn’t a long one by tour standards, with thick rough lining the fairways, players who can’t control their driver will be behind the eight ball early, especially in an event that requires players to keep the pedal to floor right out of the gate. Finally, this portion of the schedule is ideal for rookies, as many of the studs are resting for the majority of the fall, so first-time winners are a frequent occurrence this time of year. Being able to manage the mental game and being able to stay in the moment may be even more important than your actual playing abilities. For many of these up and comers, this could possibly be their first real taste of pressure on tour, so managing expectations and just staying true to their game may be the difference that separates them from the rest come Sunday.

The Procore Championship has been a staple on tour since 2007 and has produced an intriguing list of first-time winners and wins by tour veterans, including Mike Weir, Cameron Beckman, Troy Matteson, Rocco Mediate, Bryce Molder, Jonas Blixt, Jimmy Walker, Sang-Moon Bae, Emiliano Grillo, Brendan Steele, Kevin Tway, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Max Homa and Sahith Theegala, just to name a few.

Brendan Steele and Max Homa share the title for most wins in this event, with each of them finding victory here twice (Steele in 2016 and 2017 and Homa in 2021 and 2022). The 18 hole scoring record is 61, which was achieved by the following players:

  • Mark Hensby- Round 2, 2007 at Grayhawk Golf Club
  • Kevin Stadler- Round 2, 2008 at Grayhawk Golf Club
  • Troy Matteson- Rounds 2 and 3, 2009 at Grayhawk Golf Club
  • Mike Weir- Round 4, 2009 at Grayhawk Golf Club
  • Chesson Hadley- Round 2, 2017 at Silverado Resort

The 72 hole scoring record at Grayhawk Golf Club is 262 (-18), which was achieved by the following players:

  • Cameron Beckman- 2008
  • Kevin Sutherland- 2008
  • Troy Matteson- 2009
  • Rickie Fowler- 2009
  • Jamie Lovemark- 2009

The 72 hole scoring record at Silverado Resort is 267 (-21), which was achieved by Stewart Cink during his victory in 2020 and matched by Sahith Theegala during his victory in 2023.

Last year’s edition was won by Sahith Theegala, who shot a final round 68 to pick up his first career PGA Tour victory by two strokes over S. H. Kim. Cam Davis finished in third place, four strokes back, while Eric Cole and Justin Thomas rounded out the top five, finishing fourth and fifth, respectively.

Player to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://www.sportskeeda.com/golf/news-who-wilson-furr-all-need-know-rookie-co-leading-2024-texas-children-s-houston-open

This week’s fade is someone I do not believe I have never written about, and probably for good reason. Wilson Furr is having an abysmal rookie campaign on the PGA Tour, with just four made cuts in 18 starts, good enough to slot him just inside the top 200 in the FedEx Cup Standings. Furr’s best finish of 2024 came at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, where he finished a modest T-36 after holding a share of the lead after the first round. Losing strokes across the board in five of the six major Strokes Gained categories, Furr is looking for a miraculous turnaround to retain his tour card for the 2025 season. Furr has never teed it up in this event and his stats don’t bode well, averaging 3.35 birdies per round and making only 134 birdies all season. With the winning score of this event hovering between -15 and -20 most years, Furr will likely be having another short outing on his way to a fifth straight missed cut.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://golfweek.usatoday.com/2020/06/01/clemsons-jacob-bridgeman-has-solid-year-poised-for-bigger-things/

Another rookie on tour, Jacob Bridgeman has had a slightly better season than Furr above has had, earning seven top 25 finished to go against eight missed cuts in 20 starts. Bridgeman may have struggled at times this season, but he has put together a nice string of late, finishing in the top 20 in each of his last two starts (T-19 at the 3M Open and T-12 at the Wyndham Championship). In general, Bridgeman excels in the right areas that should lead to success in this event, ranking 53rd in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting, as well as 54th in Greens in Regulation Percentage and 14th in Birdie Average. In Birdgeman’s two most recent starts, he has consistently gained strokes in Driving Distance, Off the Tee, Approach and Putting, gaining 1.44 strokes total at the 3M Open and 1.70 strokes at the Wyndham Championship. The Fall Series doesn’t always have the deepest fields, meaning there is a little bit more room for rookies and less experienced players to shine. If Bridgeman keeps hitting the greens and rolling in the putts, there is no reason he can’t bring home a third straight top 20 finish.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://golfweek.usatoday.com/2024/07/07/2024-john-deere-classic-amateur-luke-clanton-pga-tour-record/

One of the best amateurs in the game today, Luke Clanton is off to a hot start to his PGA Tour career, with three top 10’s and just one missed cut in six starts, highlighted by a T-2 finish at the John Deere Classic earlier this summer. Clanton is an absolute ball striking machine. Clanton hasn’t played enough rounds to register for the Strokes Gained categories, but based on his current results, he would be leading the tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Greens in Regulation Percentage and Birdie Average, and would rank inside the top 5 in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and Driving Accuracy Percentage. Clanton has played really well in birdie fest events, finishing at -14 or better for the week in all three of his top 10 finishes (-14 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (T-10), -14 at the Wyndham Championship (5th) and -20 at the John Deere Classic (T-2)). With lots of birdies on tap for this week, paired with an event that doesn’t have a particularly deep field, Clanton is a lock for a top 10 finish and very well may be in the hunt for his maiden tour victory on Sunday.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://milesquaregolfcourse.com/j-j-spaun-earns-his-first-pga-tour-victory-at-valero/

A little bit of a surprise victor, but hear me out. J. J. Spaun picked up his lone career PGA Tour victory at the 2022 Valero Texas Open and has been up and down since then, picking up eight top 10 finishes vs 22 missed cuts in 65 starts. There is reason to believe that Spaun’s game is on the upswing right now, as he has picked up three top 10’s and five top 30’s over his past six starts, including a T-3 finish at the Wyndham Championship where he closed with a sterling final round of 64. Spaun’s strength comes from his excellent iron play, ranking 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and 18th in Greens in Regulation Percentage. In his last two starts, Spaun has been dialed in, gaining 1.22 strokes on approach and 0.48 strokes on the greens at the Wyndham Championship and 1.38 strokes on approach and 0.66 strokes on the greens at the 3M Open. Spaun also has had past success in this event, finishing T-9 in 2020 and T-11 in 2023. Making his 213th start this week, I predict that J. J. Spaun will end a two-year winless streak and pick up his second PGA Tour victory at the Procore Championship!


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