2024 The Great American Getaway 400 Presented by VisitPa.com Predictions

The Cup Series continues on today as it returns to the mountains of Pennsylvania for  the 2024 The Great American Getaway 400 Presented by VisitPa.com at Pocono Raceway. Originally built in 1968, Pocono Raceway is a 2.5 mile asphalt triangular oval that has played host to NASCAR annually since 1971. Pocono serves as one of the most unique tracks on the schedule, as each of the three turns is modeled after turns at three different tracks. Turn One has 14 degrees of banking and is modeled after the turns at Trenton Speedway; Turn Two has 8 degrees of banking and is modeled after the turns at Indianapolis Motor Speedway; and Turn Three has 6 degrees of banking and is modeled after the turns at the Milwaukee Mile,

There are going to be a lot of variables in play for today’s race. Pocono is notorious for having long green flag runs, so many of these races have come down to playing the fuel strategy game. At 2.5 miles per lap, you can certainly save some fuel if you know how to do it properly. If this ends up being the case, you’ll likely see tons of strategy calls, much like what we saw in the free for all at the end of the Nashville race. As has been the central theme this summer, weather will play a hand in the festivities as well. With hot temperatures, high humidity and rain lurking in the area, there’s always a chance that the race could get called early or they may race to a certain time like they did in Chicago, as Pocono does not have lights. Drivers will also need to take care of their equipment. With high temperatures, high speeds, hard braking and lots of shifting, the chance of equipment failures, tire blowouts and blown engines increases exponentially. Just taking care of your equipment in order to make it the full 400 miles will be key to outlasting your opponent. Lastly, drivers will want to get track position in any way that they can. Pocono is a difficult track to pass at in the corners. With one of the widest front stretches in the sport, drivers will want to make up as much ground as they can on restarts and then methodically work their way to the front. Having good pace will certainly help your cause, but passes are usually successful because your opponent got loose in the turn rather than you gunning it by them on raw speed alone.

The Great American Getaway 400 Presented by VisitPa.com was first held in 1971 and has produced a variety of great winners from legends of the sport throughout the years, including Butch Hartman, Roger McCluskey, Richard Petty, Ron Keselowski, David Pearson, Benny Parsons, Darrell Waltrip, Cale Yarborough, Neil Bonnett, Bobby Allison, Tim Richmond, Harry Gant, Bill Elliott, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Geoffrey Bodine, Rusty Wallace, Dale Jarrett, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott, just to name a few.

Denny Hamlin has won this race the most times, finding Victory Lane five times. Bill Elliott won this race four times, while Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Rusty Wallace and Kyle Busch each have three victories in this race.

Last year’s edition was won by Denny Hamlin, who led the final six laps after a hard fought battle with Kyle Larson to pick up his 7th career victory at Pocono and the 50th of his Cup Series career. Tyler Reddick finished 2nd and Martin Truex Jr. finished 3rd after leading a combined 35 laps on the day, while Kevin Harvick and Ty Gibbs rounded out the top five. William Byron finished 14th after leading 60 laps on the day. Kyle Larson finished 20th following his dust up with Hamlin after leading 24 laps during the race. Joey Logano finished 35th after winning Stage One and leading 21 laps before getting caught up in a wreck at the beginning of Stage Two.

Coverage of The Great American Getaway 400 Presented by VisitPa.com can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race coverage beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

2024 has been a struggle for Ryan Preece, with his 4th place finish at Nashville being his only top 5 finish of the season. With just one other top 10 finish (Martinsville), six top 15’s and nine top 20’s, Preece has far and away been the worst driver in the Stewart-Haas Racing organization, which is probably why he’s the only one who doesn’t have a confirmed ride for next season yet. Preece’s Pocono results have been less than sterling. Outside of an 8th place finish here in 2021, Preece has never finished better than 20th at Pocono in seven career starts. This weekend has shown to once again be one of struggle for Preece, as he was one of the slowest cars throughout Practice and will roll off from the 36th position today. No doubt in my mind that Preece will finish outside the top 20 again today.

Dark Horse:

You know you love him, no matter how much you claim to hate him. You claim you couldn’t care less about “Bubbles,” but y’all keep on bringing him up, especially in conversations that have nothing to do with him. Bubba Wallace started off the season in great form, opening up with back-to-back top 5 finishes, but since then, he has cooled off some, but has remained consistent in 18 starts, with one top 5, four top 10’s, eight top 15’s and 11 top 20’s. Wallace is often considered to be a superspeedway ringer, but has had success at Pocono as well, which is sort of a cross between an intermediate and superspeedway due to its length and high speeds. Wallace has finished in the top 15 at Pocono in each of his last four starts here, including a 5th place finish in 2021 and an 8th place finish in 2022. Wallace showed solid pace in Practice, ranking 5th on Five Lap Averages and laying down the fourth fastest lap in all of Practice, but a hiccup in Qualifying where Wallace got loose and saved the car from spinning out led to him placing in 29th to start today’s race. Wallace has pace in the car, but will have a long afternoon ahead of him as he tries to advance through the field. I predict that Wallace will keep his top 15 streak alive and nail down a fifth straight top 15 at Pocono.

Top 10:

The most outspoken driver in the sport today, Denny “Mr. Pocono” Hamlin is by far and away the best active driver at Pocono, with seven wins (plus one other win that ended up in a disqualification), 15 top 5’s, 22 top 10’s, 27 top 20’s and 827 laps led in 34 career starts. Hamlin has been one of the best drivers throughout 2024 and is one of the few to beat nearly every single week, as he has three wins, seven top 5’s and 13 top 20’s in 20 starts this season. Hamlin has had some bad luck of late with four finishes of 24th or worse in his last five starts, but don’t let that deter you today. Hamlin showed solid long run speed in Practice, ranking inside the top five on 10, 15 and 20 Lap Averages, as well as pacing the field on 20 Lap Averages. Hamlin qualified fourth for today’s race and will look to defend his victory here from last season. Hamlin will absolutely be a threat to win today and will undoubtedly lead some laps, but a top 10 finish is a lock for Mr. Pocono.

Winner:

The Heartbreak Kid, Tyler Reddick has been so agonizingly close to victory the last three weeks, finishing 6th at New Hampshire after leading at the time of the rain delay, finishing 3rd at Nashville after closing in on Joey Logano late on the last restart and finishing 2nd at Chicago after hitting the wall late while he was tracking down eventual race winner Alex Bowman. With one win, eight top 5’s and 13 top 10’s this season, it almost feels like Reddick underachieves at times due to just having bad luck. Fortunately for Reddick, he returns to a track in Pocono that is the embodiment of both his consistency and heartbreak. In six career starts at Pocono, Reddick has had two top 5’s, three top 10’s and four top 20’s, including four straight top 11 finishes, as well as back-to-back runner-up finishes. Reddick had great pace on the short run in Practice, but didn’t register more than a 10 Lap Average, which puts a question mark on his long run speed, but Reddick also laid down the fastest lap of the entire Practice session and will roll off from the 7th position this afternoon. With Reddick continuing to thrust himself into the conversation for Regular Season Champion, sitting just 23 points behind current leader Kyle Larson, I predict he will continue to make gains this afternoon and assert himself further by conquering the Tricky Triangle and finding Victory Lane at Pocono!