The PGA Tour contests its final major of the season this week as it visits Royal Troon Golf Club for the 152nd playing of The Open Championship. Royal Troon originally opened in 1878, with the current rotation originally designed by Willie Fernie and George Strath in 1888 and later redesigned by five-time Open Champion James Braid in 1923. The 2024 edition of the Open Championship will play as a Par 71, 7,385 yard layout.
The PGA Tour is spending yet another week across the pond as the game’s best test their skills in the sport’s oldest major. When it comes to links golf, an emphasis is placed on ball striking. You can’t just hit it anywhere and hope for the best. You must be precise with both your driver and your irons, as wayward shots will be treated accordingly, whether they end up landing in some thick fescue or finding a dreaded pot bunker. With 96 bunkers in play this year and ample amounts of thick and gnarly fescue, players better have great control from the start or they will start wracking up big numbers left and right. Despite challenging weather conditions, going low is still a must. With eight of the last nine winners of The Open finishing at double digits under par for the week, a premium is put on making the most of your birdie opportunities, but also, you have to equally avoid making large numbers. Just one false move and one hole can single handedly ruin your chance at a victory. Hitting your greens is one thing. Hitting them in the right spot is a whole other story. Leaving yourself 60 feet away from the hole on the green isn’t ideal. You truly need to hit these greens in the right spot to give yourself scoring chances. Links golf often leads to wild bounces around the green. There will ultimately be many ways to get your ball in the hole once you get near the green. But having good iron control and a little luck is going to separate elite players from the merely average ball strikers this week. Players may have their hands fuller than usual this week too with the weather. With temperatures lurking in the mid to low 60’s over the next few days and rain in the forecast for both Thursday and Saturday, not too mention ever changing wind patterns, Mother Nature may actually show her hand this year and truly show us who the best players on earth are. Yes, majors are not supposed to be easy to win, contrary to popular belief of all of the arm chair commentators. Majors were meant to be held at challenging, difficult venues to show who really has the best game all through their bag. The difficulty of The Open Championship has always hinged on how angry Mother Nature may be. This year, she may very well give the players all she has, which will make for some entraining golf the next four days. Finally, just play smart. You don’t have to play every shot aggressively. You’re playing the other players, you’re taking what the course gives you, and most importantly, you’re battling Mother Nature. Just play your game the best you can, take the bounces as they come and avoid the big number. Just grinding it out on the days with poor weather may be the difference between walking away with the Claret Jug vs. coming up oh so tantalizing short yet again.
The Open Championship is golf’s oldest major, with the first edition taking place in 1860. Because of that, the list of winners is both long and illustrious. Past winners of The Open Championship include Willie Park Sr., Old Tom Morris, Andrew Strath, Young Tom Morris, Tom Kidd, Mungo Park, Bob Martin, Jamie Anderson, Bob Ferguson, Willie Fernie, Jack Simpson, David Brown, Willie Park Jr., Jack Burns, John Ball, Hugh Kirkaldy, Harold Hilton, William Auchterlonie, John Henry Taylor, Harry Vardon, James Braid, Sandy Herd, Jack White, Arnaud Massy, Ted Ray, George Duncan, Jock Hutchison, Walter Hagen, Arthur Havers, Jim Barnes, Bobby Jones, Tommy Armour, Gene Sarazen, Denny Shute, Henry Cotton, Alf Perry, Alf Padgham, Reg Whitcombe, Dick Burton, Sam Snead, Fred Daly, Bobby Locke, Max Faulkner, Ben Hogan, Peter Thomson, Gary Player, Kel Nagle, Arnold Palmer, Bob Charles, Tony Lema, Jack Nicklaus, Roberto Di Vicenzo, Tony Jacklin, Lee Trevino, Tom Weiskopf, Tom Watson, Johnny Miller, Seve Ballesteros, Bill Rogers, Sandy Lyle, Greg Norman, Nick Faldo, Mark Calcavecchia, Ian Baker-Finch, Nick Price, John Daly, Tom Lehman, Justin Leonard, Mark O’Meara, Paul Lawrie, Tiger Woods, David Duval, Ernie Els, Ben Curtis, Todd Hamilton, Padraig Harrington, Stewart Cink, Louis Oosthuizen, Darren Clarke, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy, Zach Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Jordan Spieth, Francesco Molinari, Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith and Brian Harman, just to name a few.
Past winners of the Open Championship at Royal Troon include Arthur Havers (1923), Bobby Locke (1950), Arnold Palmer (1962), Tom Weiskopf (1973), Tom Watson (1982), Mark Calcavecchia (1989), Justin Leonard (1997), Todd Hamilton (2004) and Henrik Stenson (2016).
Harry Vardon has the most wins in The Open Championship, hoisting the Claret Jug six times in his career. James Braid, John Henry Taylor, Peter Thomson and Tom Watson have each won The Open five times. Old Tom Morris, Young Tom Morris, Willie Park Sr., Walter Hagen and Bobby Locke have won this event four times each. Jamie Anderson, Bob Ferguson, Bobby Jones, Henry Cotton, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods have each been Champion Golfer of the Year three times in their career.
The 18 hole scoring record for The Open Championship is 63, which was achieved by Branden Grace during the third round at Royal Birkdale in 2017. The 72 hole scoring record is 264 (-20), which was achieved by Henrik Stenson during his victory here at Royal Troon in 2016. The 72 hole scoring record to par is -20, which was achieved by both Henrik Stenson in his victory her at Royal Troon (264) in 2016 and matched by Cameron Smith during his victory at St. Andrews (268) in 2022.
Last year’s edition was won by Brian Harman, who shot a second round 65 (which was roughly eight shots lower than the average score that day) and ultimately never looked bag. He entered the final round with a five stroke lead and went on to win by six over Jason Day, Tom Kim, Jon Rahm and Sepp Straka.
20 years ago, Todd Hamilton shocked the golfing world, winning the 2004 Open Championship at Royal Troon in a playoff over Ernie Els to lift the Claret Jug and earn his first major victory. Alas, that was all she wrote for Hamilton, as he could never recapture the magic. Hamilton never won again on tour following his victory and his major stat line is an all-time beauty, with just one win, two top 25 finishes and 16 made cuts in 39 career starts. Hamilton is making his first PGA Tour start since the 2019 Puerto Rico Open, his first major start since the 2018 Open Championship and is looking to make the cut on tour for the first time on tour since the 2014 John Deere Classic. Returning to the site of his major triumph 20 years later, this may potentially be the swan song for the 58-year-old, as Open Championship winners are exempt to play in the event until they are 60. Hamilton may be a sentimental fan favorite this week, but sentimentality rarely leads to success. Todd Hamilton is almost all but certain to miss the cut this week.
It almost seems unfair to pick someone in the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking as a dark horse, but that’s what we are doing. After some struggles early on this season, Sungjae Im has turned it on over his last nine starts, with three top 5’s, five top 10’s and seven top 20’s dung that stretch, including a T-4 finish just a week ago at the Genesis Scottish Open. Im is a player who is solid all the way through the bag, gaining strokes in each of the six major Strokes Gained categories. Im’s recent success can be largely attributed to his putting, where has gained strokes in seven of his last nine starts, his driving, as he has gained strokes off the tee in eight of his last nine starts and his iron play, where he has also gained stokes in eight of his last name starts. Most majors, it helps to be a long hitter, but the Open Championship requires elite ball strikers and a solid short game over power. With his recent form, Im checks all of the boxes. Despite being both an elite player and having great recent form, I was floored to see that Im’s odds of winning this week were 55-1 (odds through BetMGM at the time of writing), which is downright disrespectful for a player of his caliber. That mostly is due to the fact that despite being a well-rounded player, he’s been underwhelming in the majors to say the least, with just one top 5, two top 10’s, six top 25’s and just nine made cuts in 20 major starts. As I mentioned earlier, Im is coming off a strong week in Scotland and earned his best Open Championship finish last year, finishing T-20 at Royal Liverpool. A win isn’t out of the realm given his recent form, but I predict that Sungjae Im will improve on his best finish at the Open and bring home a top 15 finish this week.
Frankly, it’s almost a no brainer to pick Rory McIlroy for a top 10 finish in a major, but we’re gonna go ahead and justify the why. He may not close the deal as often as Scottie Scheffler, but McIlroy is having a terrific campaign in 2024, with two wins, six top 20’s, 13 top 25’s and zero missed cuts in 15 starts. McIlroy is solid all through the bag, ranking inside the top 50 in all six major Strokes Gained categories, including 2nd in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Off-the-Tee. McIlroy has shown recently that he is dialed in with his game, gaining strokes off the tee and around the green in each of his last six starts, as well as gaining strokes on approach and putting in five of his last six starts. Let’s address that elephant in the room for McIlroy. He can’t close the deal in majors any more. Fortunately, we aren’t predicting for him to do so this week, but that’s not the point. Since his last major victory in the 2014, McIlroy has had four runner-up finishes, 11 top 5’s, 21 top 10 finishes and 26 top 25 finishes in 37 starts. Frankly, most players would kill to have that sort of career, but for a player who is as talented as Rory McIlroy, it just isn’t enough. McIlroy has fared well in the Open Championship in his career, winning the Claret Jug in 2014 to go along with six top 5’s, seven top 10’s and eight top 25’s to go against just two missed cuts in 14 career starts. McIlroy has finished in the top six in this event each of the last two years, finished T-5 the last time the Open Championship was held at Royal Troon in 2016 and is fresh off of a T-4 finish last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. A threat to win any time he tees it up, I predict that McIlroy will be firmly in the mix again this week on his way to another top 10 major finish.
Another great player lurking within the Scheffler Shadow, Collin Morikawa has done just about everything but win this season, earning seven top 10’s, 13 top 25’s and just two missed cuts across 17 starts. In Morikawa’s last 10 starts, he has had five top 5’s, six top 10’s and ten top 25’s, which includes a T-3 finish at the Masters Tournament, a T-4 finish at the PGA Championship and a T-14 finish at the U. S. Open, not to mention a T-4 finish last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. Morikawa’s game is seemingly firing on all cylinders right now, as he is gaining strokes in all six major Strokes Gained categories, including ranking 8th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 12th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 16th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Over his last 10 starts, Morikawa has gained strokes in driving accuracy and from the tee in 9 of his last 10 starts (Zurich Classic of New Orleans doesn’t measure any Strokes Gained metrics) as well as on approach, around the green and on the green in 8 of his last 10 starts. Three other areas of strength for Morikawa this season? Morikawa ranks 2nd in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 17th in Bogey Avoidance and 27th in Scrambling, all of which are important facets of the game that should give Morikawa a leg up on his competition this week in challenging conditions. Morikawa has been checkers or wreckers at the Open, winning this event in his debut in 2021 at Royal St. George’s Golf Club, while missing the cut each of the last two years. Hitting the long ball often pays dividends in majors, but there’s something special about the Open Championship. Mother Nature doesn’t care how far you hit it. She cares about control. She cares about endurance. Links style golf puts an emphasis on great ball striking. It’s not necessarily about scoring low, it’s about hitting your shots in the right place. With pot bunkers and fescue galore, you must be precise and Collin Morikawa fits this description to a tee. In one of the deepest fields of the year, I predict that Morikawa will pick up his first victory of the season, hoist the Claret Jug for the second time in his career and, most deservingly, earn the title of Champion Golfer of the Year.
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