The Cup Series continues on today with the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. First opened in 1968, Sonoma Raceway is a 12-turn, 1.99 mile road course that has hosted the sport nearly annually since 1989. Sonoma serves as one of the most challenging road courses on the schedule each year for both the drivers and the cars due to the varying elevation changes, with drivers tacking 160 feet of hills and swales from the highest point on the course to the lowest point on the course.
On that note, taking care of your equipment will be vital to finding success this afternoon. With lots of the standard beating and banging on road courses paired with the various elevation changes, you can very easily use up your car early on. 110 laps is a long way to go, so damaging your car early can make things very challenging as the race goes on. Track position is going to be extremely vital today. As we have quickly learned watching short track races and road course races in the Next Gen era, track position is king. Yes, passing can and will happen on a road course, but starting up front is going to pay dividends and playing the pit strategy right will make or break who runs well today. Also worth noting is that Sonoma underwent a complete repave since the last time NASCAR was here. Tire fall off won’t be as significant, but speeds will be up and the drop off between racing surface and non-racing surface becomes much more noticeable. With the newfound grip, drivers will be sending it even more than usual into the corners than they have in the past. Lastly, remain patient. Passing comes at a premium on road courses. It takes time to set up the passes. If you press the issue early, your day can quickly come to the end if you make a bold move and it doesn’t pay off. At the end of the day, the fastest cars and the best drivers will eventually find their way to the front.
The Toyota/Save Mart 350 was first held in 1989 and since then, has produced a variety of both A-list and underdog winners, including Ricky Rudd, Rusty Wallace, Davey Allison, Ernie Irvan, Geoffrey Bodine, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Robby Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr., Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Daniel Suarez, just to name a few. Jeff Gordon has won this race the most times, finding Victory Lane in Sonoma 5 times, including 3 straight years from 1998 through 2000. Martin Truex Jr. has won this race 4 times, including 3 of the last 5 years. Tony Stewart won this race 3 times, while Ernie Irvan, Rusty Wallace, Ricky Rudd and Kyle Busch each have a pair of victories in Wine Country.
Last year’s edition was won by Martin Truex Jr., who led 51 laps on the day en route to his 4th career Sonoma victory. Kyle Busch finished second after leading 17 laps and winning Stage 2, while Joey Logano, Chris Buescher and Chase Elliott rounded out the top 5. Polesitter Denny Hamlin finished 36th after leading 33 laps and winning Stage 1 before wrecking late in the Final Stage.
Coverage of the Toyota/Save Mart 350 can be seen on Fox Sports 1 and FOX, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 2 PM EST on FS1 before moving over to FOX at 3 PM EST, with green flag coverage immediately following it at 3:30 PM EST.
I’m trying to find something positive to say about Harrison Burton, but I’m having a difficult time. His best finish on a non-drafting track this season is a 22nd place finish at Darlington. He’s started a race inside the top 20 on just 4 occasions this season, with only one of them coming at a non-drafting track. Overall, he just lacks speed seemingly no matter what type of track he shows up at. Some of that fault can be placed on the driver, but ultimately, you’re only as good as your equipment and frankly, Wood Brothers Racing really hasn’t been a weekly threat in, checks calendar, this century. Burton has not had any past success at Sonoma, finishing 28th and 27th in both of his other prior appearances. Burton was mid-pack in Practice and will roll off 22nd this afternoon. No doubt in my mind that he will finish outside the top 25 today.
Despite showing lots of speed this season, Michael McDowell has not had the results to show for it, with just 4 top 10 finishes after earning the Pole 3 times and starting inside the top 10 9 times through 15 races. Fortunately for McDowell, he returns to Sonoma this week, a track where he has had some really nice runs of late, finishing 3rd here in 2022 and 7th here last season. McDowell has quietly been good on road courses for a few years now, earning 8 top 10’s in 19 starts since the beginning of the 2021 season. McDowell came out and shocked the world though last season, taking home a dominating victory at the Indy Road Course. Since then, there has been much to desired on the road courses for McDowell, who has finished 32nd or worse in each of the last 3 road course races. McDowell showed solid pace in Practice and will begin today’s race from the 12th position. A win is not out of the question for McDowell given that he’s done it before, but a top 10 finish would be a realistic expectation.
It may not be a dominating season for Chase Elliott, but you can make a case for this being his best season to date, with 1 win, 5 top 5’s, 7 top 10’s and 0 finishes outside the top 20 through the first 15 races. Consistency matters at the end of the day and the more top 10’s and top 15’s you can click off as a driver, the better shape you will be once the playoffs roll around. As we all know, Chase Elliott is one of the best to every make both right and left turns in NASCAR, as he has 7 wins, 16 top 5’s and 20 top 10’s in 30 road course starts. Since the Gen 7 car came into the sport in 2022, Elliott has gone winless on road courses, but has still had solid showings, with 5 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in 11 starts. All of this brings us to Sonoma, a road course where Elliott has done very well, but has also yet to win. Elliott has 3 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s in 7 trips to Sonoma, with 49 laps led over his last 4 starts here. This weekend has looked promising for Elliott so far, as he laid down the 5th fastest lap of Practice and will start today’s race from the 4th position. Elliott will definitely be a threat for the win today, but a top 10 finish feels like a lock.
After a slow start to the season where he finished outside the top 25 in 3 of the first 5 race, Tyler Reddick has been turning it on of late, with 1 win, 5 top 5’s and 7 top 10’s in the 10 races since, including 4th place finishes in each of his last 2 starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway and World Wide Technology Raceway. Reddick has turned into quite the road course ringer in his young career, with 3 wins, 7 top 5’s and 14 top 10’s in 21 starts, including 4 straight top 8 finishes and top 10’s in 11 of the last 13 road course races. Despite his many successes on road courses, Sonoma has proven to be an elusive track for Reddick so far. Reddick qualified inside the top 10 in all 3 of his previous Sonoma starts, but has finished those races in 19th, 35th and 33rd. Not exactly inspiring results to say the least. Nevertheless, Reddick has continued to follow the script this weekend, showing great speed in Practice, ranking 2nd on 10 lap averages and leading the way on 15 lap averages. Once again, Reddick qualified well, beginning today’s race on the front row in the 2nd position. But this time, I predict that Reddick will end his bad luck at this track in a big way by taking home the victory in Wine Country!
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