The PGA Tour contests its third major of the season as it returns to the illustrious Pinehurst No. 2 for the 2024 U. S. Open. Originally designed by iconic golf course architect Donald Ross in 1907 and most recently re-designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw in 2010, Pinehurst will play as a Par 70, 7,543 yard layout this week. Past winners of the U. S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 are Payne Stewart (1999), Michael Campbell (2005) and Martin Kaymer (2014).
Hosting the U. S. Open for the fourth time this week, Pinehurst No. 2 is a gem right out of the olden days of golf course architecture, featuring fast, treacherous greens, long holes with narrow fairways and penal hazards to punish those errant from the tee or approaching the green. With difficult setups in store all week long, Pinehurst favors elite ball strikers. Those in best control of their irons will undoubtedly rise to the top this week. With dried out fairways, length from the tee won’t matter, as fee shots will roll further than usual, negating the advantage of the long ball and giving shorter hitters an equal chance of success. Accuracy still matters though, with vast sandy waste areas ready to catch errant drives, as well as errant approach shots. With temperatures expecting to reach the upper 80’s and into the 90’s this week, the fairways and greens will be quite dry and rock hard. Holding the greens with your approach shots may be extremely difficult, which means you better have a damn good short game to make up for any unexpected bounces and misses around the green. The firmer the conditions, the harder it will be to score. It will not be a birdie fest this week like it was at the PGA Championship. With these “unfavorable” weather conditions (depending on who you ask), there’s a very real chance that nobody finishes under par for the week. In that case, being a great grinder will be vital to staying in it. Don’t make that big mistake and cost yourself the tournament. Sometimes, bogey will be a good score. You just gotta take what the course gives you and not try to thread that needle. The other 3 U. S. Opens at Pinehurst No. 2 produced winning scores of -1, E and -9 (second place was -1), so thinking you’re going to go out and put up 4 rounds of 65 is laughable. For many years, an even par total of 280 was the standard and often good enough to win any U. S. Open. With the conditions mentioned above, we very well may be in store for an old school performance following that historic standard.
The U. S. Open is the second oldest of the 4 majors, with the first edition taking place in 1895. Being contested for over 125 years, the list of winners is a Who’s Who of the all-time greats of the game, including Horace Rawlins, James Foulis, Joe Lloyd, Fred Herd, Willie Smith, Harry Vardon, Willie Anderson, Laurie Auchterlonie, Alex Smith, Fred McLeod, George Sargent, John McDermott, Francis Ouimet, Walter Hagen, Jerome Travers, Chick Evans, Ted Ray, Jim Barnes, Gene Sarazen, Bobby Jones, Cyril Walker, Willie Macfarlane, Tommy Armour, Johnny Farrell, Billy Burke, Johnny Goodman, Olin Dutra, Sam Parks Jr., Tony Manero, Ralph Gudahl, Byron Nelson, Lawson Little, Craig Wood, Lloyd Mangrum, Lew Worsham, Ben Hogan, Cary Middlecoff, Julius Boros, Ed Furgol, Jack Fleck, Dick Mayer, Tommy Bolt, Billy Casper, Arnold Palmer, Gene Littler, Jack Nicklaus, Ken Venturi, Gary Player, Lee Trevino, Orville Moody, Tony Jacklin, Johnny Miller, Hale Irwin, Lou Graham, Jerry Pate, Hubert Green, Andy North, David Graham, Tom Watson, Larry Nelson, Fuzzy Zoeller, Raymond Floyd, Scott Simpson, Curtis Strange, Payne Stewart, Tom Kite, Lee Janzen, Ernie Els, Corey Pavin, Steve Jones, Tiger Woods, Retief Goosen, Jim Furyk, Michael Campbell, Geoff Ogilvy, Angel Cabrera, Lucas Glover, Graeme McDowell, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark, just to name a few.
4 players have each won the U. S. Open 4 times: Willie Anderson, Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus, while Hale Irwin and Tiger Woods each have 3 wins in this event. The following players have each won the U. S. Open twice: Alex Smith, John McDermott, Walter Hagen, Gene Sarazen, Ralph Gudahl, Cary Middlecoff, Julius Boros, Billy Casper, Lee Trevino, Andy North, Curtis Strange, Ernie Els, Lee Janzen, Payne Stewart, Retief Goosen and Brooks Koepka.
The 18 hole scoring record for the U. S. Open is 62, which was achieved by both Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele last year during the first round of the 2023 U. S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.
The 72 hole total scoring record is 268 (-16), which was achieved by Rory McIlroy during his victory in his victory in 2011 at Congressional Country Club, while the 72 hole scoring record to par is -16, which was achieved by both Rory McIlroy during his victory at Congressional Country Club in 2011 (268) and by Brooks Koepka during his victory at Erin Hills in 2017 (272).
Last year’s edition was won by Wyndham Clark, who shot a final round to 70 to hold off Rory McIlroy by a single stroke and pick up his first major victory in just his 7th career major start. Scottie Scheffler finished in third place, three strokes back, Cameron Smith finished in fourth place, four strokes back and Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler and Min Woo Lee all finished T-5, five strokes back.
Robert Rock may be one of the unlikeliest players teeing it up this week. A two-time winner on the DP World Tour, Rock retired from the game in 2022 to spend more time with his family. Spending his time now coaching and teeing it up occasionally in events on the European Players Tour, the 47-year-old qualified for the U. S. Open after shooting -9 over a 36 hole qualifier at Walton Heath to claim his spot in the event. Making his first start in a major since the 2019 Open Championship, Rock is currently ranked 2,221st in the Official World Golf Ranking, teeing it up for the first time in an event that awards world ranking points for the first time in nearly 2 years. Rock has had minor success in major championships, making the cut in 6 of his 11 career major starts, highlighted by a T-7 finish at the 2010 Open Championship and a T-16 at the 2006 Open Championship. A sentimental favorite for many, Rock will undoubtedly struggle among brutal conditions at Pinehurst No. 2 and miss the cut.
It’s weird calling the player ranked 18th in the Official World Golf Ranking a dark horse, but that’s exactly what I’m doing this week with Sepp Straka. Straka has quietly put together a solid 2024 campaign, with 4 top 10’s and 8 top 25’s in 15 starts, including back to back T-5 finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. In an event like the U. S. Open where the setups are usually difficult, you want someone who can hits their fairways and hit their greens. Straka checks both boxes, ranking 41st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 37th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 50th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 2nd in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 43rd in Greens in Regulation Percentage. Straka is the definition of a grinder and seems to thrive on difficult setups, with 3 of his 4 top 10’s this season coming at events where he finished single digits under par for the week. Straka is no stranger to major success, finishing T-7 at last year’s PGA Championship, T-2 at last year’s Open Championship and T-16 at this year’s Masters Tournament, each of which was held on a difficult setup with very few players finishing under par by week’s end. I could be very bold and say I wouldn’t be surprised if Straka is lifting the trophy come Sunday, but given the strength of field, a top 20 finish is to be expected for the Austrian wonder.
Winner of the PGA Championship last month, Xander Schauffele has had a terrific season that has been overshadowed by the absolute dominance of Scottie Scheffler. Schauffele is holding his own in 2024 though, with 1 win, 10 top 10’s, 13 top 25’s and 0 missed cuts in 14 starts. Finishing 8th and 1st in the first two majors of the season, we know that Schauffele has a game that was made to shine on the major stage. His stats back that up as well. Schauffele is one of the best players all the way through the bag right now and is a ball striking machine, ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 7th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 35th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 26th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 14th in Greens in Regulation Percentage, and 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. Another player that thrives in grind it out conditions, Schauffele is an absolute stud when it comes to the U. S. Open, as he has started his career with 7 straight top 15 finishes in this event, with a best finish of T-3 coming in 2019. Schauffele will no doubt be in the mix for the win this week, but a top 10 finish is a lock.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Scottie Scheffler is playing some extremely good golf right now. In 13 starts this season, Scheffler has 5 wins, 12 top 10’s and 13 top 25’s. His last 8 starts: 5 wins, 2 runner-ups and a combined -106 strokes under par. Absolutely incredible golf. Scheffler is arguably the best ball striker in the game today, ranking 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 10th in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 1st in Greens in Regulation Percentage. Ever since Scheffler switched to a mallet putter back in March, his short game improved dramatically, rendering this man virtually unstoppable. Among other areas of the game where he excels, Scheffler ranks 4th in Scrambling, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 1st in Birdies or Better Percentage and 2nd in Total Birdies. Scheffler has yet to find victory in the U.S. Open, but he has been right in the thick of it of late, finishing T-7 in 2021, T-2 in 2022 and 3rd last year. With 2 wins, 6 top 5’s, 11 top 10’s 15 top 25’s and just 3 missed cuts in 19 major starts, Scheffler is another player who thrives on the game’s biggest stages. At the end of the day, Scheffler is the best player in the world right now (1st in the Official World Golf Ranking) and the only way he’s losing is if he beats himself. Even if he plays poorly, his second best is almost always enough to beat everyone, which is the scariest things for the other players on tour to reckon with. There is no reason to bet against Scheffler to not continue to dominate, so that’s why I’m riding with Scottie and predicting that Scottie Scheffler will win the 2024 U. S. Open!
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