The Cup Series continues on this afternoon with the 2024 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. First opened in 2012, Circuit of the Americas is a 3.426 mile, 20-turn road course in the heart of Austin, TX, that has hosted a variety of motorsport disciplines over its brief existence, including NASCAR, Formula One, Grand Prix motorcycle racing, the FIA World Endurance Championship, the GT World Challenge America, MotoAmerica and the Trans-Am Series.
Road course racing has stepped into a larger role on the NASCAR schedule in recent years and has not only given us some dominant drivers, but also some quality racing, terrific rivalries, a mixed bag of strategies and a flare for the dramatics. Since the introduction of the Gen 7 car, there has been much more parity across the board and we have seen a wider variety of drivers finding success, with road course races being a prime example of that. The usual suspects make their way to the top seemingly every road course race, but there are always a few surprises each race too. Despite many fans finding road course racing as “boring, a joke, too gimmicky (did I miss anything haters?),” I, as well as many other fans, find it to be a refreshing change of pace and enjoy the racing it produces. To find success today, making your pit stops at the right time, staying patient and, ultimately, avoiding the carnage are going to be key to finding success at COTA.
Despite only being on the schedule for three years, all three editions of this race have been instant classics, with Chase Elliott winning the inaugural monsoon edition in 2021, Ross Chastain coming out victorious in a three way battle with AJ Allmendinger and Alex Bowman in overtime in 2022 and Tyler Reddick surviving what felt like a dozen restarts to earn the victory after a dominant race here last season.
Last year’s race was won by Tyler Reddick, who started from the front row and led 41 laps on the day on the way to victory. Kyle Busch finished second, with Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain and William Byron rounding out the top 5.
Coverage of the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix can be seen on Fox Sports 1 and FOX, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 2 PM EST on FS1 before continuing on Fox at 3 PM EST, with green flag coverage beginning at 3:30 PM EST.
Daniel Suarez found his way back to victory lane earlier this season thanks to his buzzer beater finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway against Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch. Since then, he’s been trying to recapture that form, finishing 11-13-18 in the 3 races since then. Despite his road course prowess (his other Cup Series win coming at Sonoma in 2022), COTA has proven an elusive track for Suarez, with a best finish of 24th in 3 career starts. This weekend has looked to be more of the normal mid-tier results that we usually see from our favorite “Amigo,” finishing 24th in Practice and qualifying 19th for this afternoon’s race. I predict that Suarez will keep the streak alive and finish outside the top 20 at COTA for the fourth consecutive year.
I’m probably going to get some flack for this pick, but hear me out. Alex Bowman has been feast or famine this season so far, with a pair of top 5’s and 3 finishes of 18th or worse in the first 5 races. Nevertheless, Bowman has some good mojo at COTA. He currently has the third best average finish at COTA, finishing 8-2-3 in the first 3 races, good enough for an average finish of 4.3. The right turn skillset is not exclusive to just COTA either. Most people have never seen Alex Bowman as a road course ringer, but the stats say otherwise. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports full-time in 2018, Bowman has had 5 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in 25 races. Bowman showed flashes on that brilliance during practice yesterday, logging the 3rd fastest lap, but he left a little bit out there during his qualifying run, as he will roll out 17th today. Frankly, I fully expect Bowman the Showman to be a factor today and earn a fourth straight top 10 finish at COTA, but don’t be surprised if he is in the hunt late in the going for the victory, too.
In his sophomore season, Ty Gibbs is really starting to get things rolling. No, he still has not won, but this has been his most consistent stretch to date, reeling off 4 straight top 10 finishes, including a pair of top 5’s at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Phoenix Raceway. Gibbs first introduced himself on a national stage when he won in his first career Xfinity Series start at the Daytona Road Course and has shown in ensuing starts that this particular style of racing suits him well. Since making the full-time leap to the Cup Series last year, Gibbs has had some of his best runs on road courses, finishing in the top 12 in 5 of his last 6 starts, including a 9th place finish both here last year and at the Chicago Street Course, as well as top 5 runs at both Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval to close out 2023. Gibbs had an absolute rocket yesterday, logging the 2nd fastest lap of Practice on the way to qualifying 2nd for today’s race. Gibbs will undoubtedly be one of the favorites to win today. But with a lot of veteran road course racers behind him, a win probably is not in the cards. A top 10 finish for Gibbs is a lock this afternoon.
The Heartbreak Kid, Tyler Reddick has continued to carry his up and down fortunes into 2024, showing lots of pace at most tracks only to end up with poor results. Reddick finished runner-up at Las Vegas, but has had more lackluster results otherwise: a 10th place finish at Phoenix after leading 68 laps on the afternoon and 3 finishes of 29th or worse at Daytona, Atlanta and Bristol. Fortunately, Reddick is racing at one of his best tracks on the schedule today: COTA. The defending winner of this race, Reddick has had great luck at this track since it came on the schedule in 2021, finishing 9-5-1 in the 3 races here, never qualifying outside the top 5 and leading 43 laps across those 3 starts. Road course racing suits Reddick quite well, with 3 wins, 8 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 20 road course starts. Reddick also puts himself in great position early on, qualifying in the top 5 in 10 of the last 11 road course races. This weekend started off with much of the same success that Reddick is used to seeing, laying down the 12th fastest lap of Practice, showing the 2nd fastest overall lap average throughout Practice and qualifying 3rd for today’s race. With the pace he has and with the recent results he has had, the racing gods owe Tyler Reddick one and I predict that he will cash that ticket today by winning this race for the second consecutive year and becoming the third straight Toyota driver to win in 2024!
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