2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Predictions

The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits Memorial Park Golf Course for the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open. First opened in 1912, Memorial Park has undergone multiple redesigns, most recently by Tom Doak in 2019, and will test the tour’s best this week as it plays as a par 70, 7,435 yard layout.

Memorial Park Golf Course is a unique layout on tour, as it contains 5 par 3 holes, but it still packs a powerful punch given the course’s length. Also notable is that this is the first time that this venue will play host to the Houston Open in the spring time, as all other editions that were played at Memorial Park took place during the fall portion of the old wrap-around schedule. There will certainly be some unknowns this week given the schedule change, but a few things can almost be assured. First off, the long hitter will benefit if he can keep it in the fairway. Yes, short hitters win on tour, but on a course that is stretching out to nearly 7,500 yards, it’ll pay if you can maximize it from the tee box. Elite ball striking will continue to pay dividends, as finding the green and avoid those pesky trouble spots will give you a decided advantage over your competition. Lastly, avoid that big number. Memorial Park is a difficult layout and over the past few years, has not given up a ton of low scoring over the course of four days. Just being able to grind it out at times will give you an edge over the competition.

The Texas Children’s Houston Open has long been a staple on tour, being held nearly every year since the first edition in 1946. Because of that, the winner’s list is a Who’s Who of PGA Tour legends, including Byron Nelson, Bobby Locke, Cary Middlecoff, Jack Burke Jr., Mike Souchak, Arnold Palmer, Bob Charles, Frank Beard, Roberto De Vicenzo, Gibby Gilbert, Hubert Green, Bruce Devlin, Bruce Crampton, Lee Elder, Gene Littler, Gary Player, Wayne Levi, Curtis Strange, David Graham, Corey Pavin, Raymond Floyd, Jay Haas, Fulton Allem, Fred Funk, Payne Stewart, Mark Brooks, Phil Blackmar, David Duval, Stuart Appleby, Robert Allenby, Hal Sutton, Vijay Singh, Fred Couples, Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Anthony Kim, Phil Mickelson, Hunter Mahan, Matt Jones, J. B. Holmes, Jim Herman, Russell Henley, Ian Poulter, Lanto Griffin, Carlos Ortiz, Jason Kokrak and Tony Finau, just to name a few.

Curtis Strange and Vijay Singh are tied for the most wins in this event, each hoisting the trophy 3 times in their career, while several players have won this event twice, including Cary Middlecoff, Jack Burke Jr., Mike Souchak, Bobby Nichols, Arnold Palmer, Bruce Crampton and Stuart Appleby. Since this event has been held on multiple courses, there are multiple scoring records. Vijay Singh holds the lowest score to par, finishing at 266 (-22) during his victory in 2002, while Tony Finau shot a 264 (-16) during his victory last year.

Last year’s edition was won by Tony Finau, who led wire-to-wire to pick up his fifth PGA Tour victory by four strokes over Tyson Alexander, by five strokes over Ben Taylor and by eight strokes over Trey Mullinax, Alex Smalley and Alex Noren.

Player to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://www.golfwrx.com/523084/sung-kang-finally-responds-to-cheating-allegations/

Making only his second start of 2024, success has not been a part of Sung Kang’s playbook lately, earning just 1 top 25 and 12 missed cuts in 19 starts last season and missing the cut in his lone start this season at the Puerto Rico Open. Last season was a struggle for Kang, ranking outside the top 100 in each of the 6 major Strokes Gained categories and through one start in 2024, it’s looking like it’ll be more of the same as the season wears on. Lastly, Kang has had no success in this event when playing at Memorial Park Golf Course, going MC-WD in his past two trips to Houston. Not a tough sell at this point, Sung Kang will miss the cut this week in Texas.

Dark Horse:

PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 13: Joseph Bramlett of the United States plays a shot from the 12th tee during the first round of the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links on June 13, 2019 in Pebble Beach, California. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)

The 195th ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking, Joseph Bramlett has been quiet, but consistent, in 2024, with a pair of top 25’s and 3 missed cuts in 8 starts. Bramlett’s game doesn’t really have any holes in it, but he doesn’t jump off the page in a ton of areas either. He is gaining strokes in all 6 of the major Strokes Gained categories, which is always a good sign, and ranks inside the top 20 in Driving Distance, which could pay dividends on a stout Memorial Park layout. Bramlett has some success in this event as well, finishing T-9 here last season. A win would be unhearlded, but a top 20 finish would be a solid showing given the strength of field.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://amp.marca.com/en/golf/2023/03/14/6410f41846163f4c3a8b4602.html

Keith Mitchell is having a nice season to date, with a pair of top 10’s, 5 top 25 finishes and just 1 missed cut in 9 starts, good enough to slot in at 58th in the FedEx Cup Standings. Mitchell is a mixed bag of success with his game at the moment, ranking inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Approach the Green, but outside the top 100 in Around-the-Green and Putting. Mitchell is also hitting 73.75% of his greens this season, good enough for 6th on tour, and ranks inside the 12 in both Total Birdies and Total Eagles made, which always bodes well for scoring. Like Bramlett above, Mitchell also has some good mojo going in this event, finishing T-9 as well the last time they teed it up in Houston. Mitchell is due for another win, but given his recent form, a top 10 finish feels like a lock this week.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://www.wltx.com/article/sports/golf/scottie-scheffler-golf-dominance/101-61192f4b-e950-489e-87a9-2d82c84f155a

Really going out on a limb with my pick this week. How can you bet against Scottie Scheffler? Number One in the Official World Golf Ranking, Scheffler is coming off of back-to-back wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS Championship, not to mention 2 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in his other 5 starts on tour this season. Scheffler leads in 4 of the 6 major Strokes Gained categories, with his only blemishes being a 5th place ranking in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 94th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Although with his recent success with the switch to the mallet putter, we expect Scheffler to improve greatly on the greens as the season continues. Scheffler has not yet found victory in this event in his brief career, but he’s certainly given it a run, making the cut in all 3 appearances, including a T-9 finish here last season and a runner-up performance the year before that. In a show of dominance, I predict that Scottie Scheffler will win his third consecutive start on the PGA Tour and take home the victory at the Texas Children’s Houston Open!


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