2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Predictions

The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits Vidanta Vallarta for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta. Designed by golf legend, or golf pariah, depending on who you ask, Greg Norman, Vidanta Vallarta has played host to the Mexico Open since it became an official PGA Tour event in 2022. The course will play as a Par 71, 7,456 yard layout this week.

Vidanta Vallarta is a very resort-esque type of golf course, with wide fairways, but also stout enough to play host to the world’s best, given its length from the tips and the strategic placement of sand and water throughout the course. Lucious paspalum grass, massive greens and 106 bunkers puts a premium on ball striking and shot making, but the course is absolutely gettable, with the winner finishing at -17 or better each of the past two years.

The Mexico Open at Vidanta is only in its third year as a PGA Tour event, with Jon Rahm and Tony Finau winning the first two editions. But this event has been contested off and on at a variety of courses throughout the years, dating all the way back to the inaugural edition in 1944. Past winners of the Mexico Open include Al Espinosa, who won this event the first four years it was held, Roberto De Vicenzo, Bobby Locke, Bob Rossburg, Tony Lema, Art Wall Jr., Homero Blancas, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, David Graham, Ben Crenshaw, Tommy Armour III, Jay Haas, Fred Funk, John Cook, Stewart Cink, Frank Nobilo, Eduardo Romero, Esteban Toledo, Fabrizio Zanotti, Jarrod Lyle, Troy Merritt, Jamie Lovemark, Erik Compton, Ted Purdy, Sebastian Vasquez, Austin Smotherman and Alvaro Ortiz, just to name a few.

Al Espinosa has won the Mexico Open the most times, with 4 career victories, while Roberto Di Vicenzo has 3 wins and Tony Holguin, Tony Lema, Lee Trevino, Ernesto Perez Acosta and Stewart Cink each have 2 wins. The scoring record is 260 (-24), which was shot by defending champion Tony Finau last year, while the low 18 hole round is 61, which was fired by Jon Rahm last year as well.

Last year’s edition was won by Tony Finau, who beat 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta winner Jon Rahm by 3 strokes to take home the victory. Brandon Wu was third, 5 strokes back, Akshay Bhatia was fourth, 6 strokes back, while Eric Cole, Emiliano Grillo and Austin Smotherman finished T-5, 8 strokes back.

Player to Fade:

2024 has been a pretty rough year for J. B. Holmes, as he has missed the cut in all 3 starts and has shot just one round in the 60’s. Last season wasn’t much better for Holmes either, missing the cut in 8 of 10 starts, with a best finish of T-67 in the other 2 starts. Holmes is losing strokes in 5 of the 6 major Strokes Gained categories and is just struggling with his game across the board. Holmes missed the cut in his lone start here last year and we predict that he will once again miss the cut here this year.

Dark Horse:

In his rookie season on the PGA Tour, Alejandro Tosti is still looking to try and find his groove, earning a best finish of T-43 so far in 3 starts. Tosti’s game is currently in a mixed state, ranking inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Putting, but ranking outside the top 100 in the other 4 major Strokes Gained categories. Part of Tosti’s strength is his driver, ranking 21st in Driving Distance this season, averaging 304.8 yards from the tee, which will pay dividends as he tries to get around a lengthy Vidanta Vallarta. More importantly, Tosti has past success in this event, finishing T-10 here last year. A win is unlikely given his recent struggles, but his first top 25 of the year is certainly a reasonable expectation given his past success here.

Top 10:

The defending champion of this event, Tony Finau has slowly been building momentum in 2024, with 1 top 10 and 3 top 25 finishes in 5 starts. Finau’s nickname might as well be Mr. Vidanta Vallarta, as he won this event last year and finished T-2 in 2022, so the course clearly suits his game very well. Finau’s putting has held him back from larger success in 2024, ranking 158th in Strokes Gained: Putting, but his ball striking is impeccable, ranking inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Approach the Green. Finau is the favorite to win this week, for obvious reasons. In spite of the short game woes, we predict that Finau will find his groove in Mexico once again and bring home a 3rd straight top 10 finish in this event.

Winner:

At first glance, Brandon Wu doesn’t exactly look like someone who is going to go out there and smoke the field this week. Just 4 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s in 76 career PGA Tour starts. Not exactly jumping off the page. BUT, Wu is an absolute stud in this event, finishing 3rd here last year and T-2 in 2022. Wu’s stats are a mixed bag, ranking inside the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting and Approach the Green, but losing strokes in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Around-the-Green. Wu hasn’t been lighting up the leaderboard lately, with his best result this season being a T-18 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. But we are big believers in past success at a specific course outweighs recent results across the board and we predict that Brandon Wu will continue his success in this event and bring home his maiden PGA Tour victory in the Mexico Open at Vidanta!