A brand new Cup Series season gets underway with the 66th running of the DAYTONA 500 at Daytona International Speedway. The winner of this event will etch their name into the annals of stock car racing, winning a coveted “Crown Jewel” race, earning an impeccable ring from Jostens for winning the race and having their name engraved into the Harley J. Earl Trophy alongside the many great champions of the sport.
Opened in 1959, Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5 mile superspeedway that has hosted the DAYTONA 500 each and every year since then. The strategy? There is no strategy. You’re just hoping to survive all of the carnage and be around with a chance to win. Andy Jankowiak said it best at the end of the ARCA race on Saturday morning: “I’m not lifting until I see God or a checkered flag.”
Winners will look to add their name to a Who’s Who of NASCAR lore, including Lee Petty, Junior Johnson, Fireball Roberts, Tiny Lund, Richard Petty, Fred Lorenzen, Mario Andretti, Cale Yarborough, A. J. Foyt, Benny Parsons, David Pearson, Bobby Allison, Bill Elliott, Darrell Waltrip, Davey Allison, Dale Jarrett, Sterling Marlin, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Michael Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., just to name a few.
“The Great American Race” continues to be the biggest event in NASCAR, with a total purse of $28,035,991 up for grabs this year, and roughly $2 million of that going to the winner. Last year’s edition was won by Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who ended a 199 race winless streak to punch his ticket to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Joey Logano finished 2nd, with Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher and polesitter Alex Bowman rounding out the top 5.
Despite being one of the best drivers in the sport, Kyle Larson is not good on superspeedways. The best drivers typically win the biggest races, but Larson has had minimal success in his career at Daytona, with 0 wins, 0 top 5’s 5 top 10’s, 10 top 20’s and 24 laps led in 19 starts. Now his stats do get a little better when you isolate things to the DAYTONA 500 only, with 4 top 10’s in 10 starts in the “Great American Race,” but his best finish is still 7th, accomplished in both 2016 and 2019. Larson is a talented driver, no arguments there, but superspeedway racing comes down to sheer luck at the end. Larson will be in the hunt all day, but we predict he will get caught up in the big one and finish outside the top 15.
Dark Horse:
One of three drivers eligible for Rookie of the Year, Zane Smith makes his long-awaited full-time Cup Series debut driving the #71 for Spire Motorsports (in a partnership with Trackhouse Racing that will see him move over and drive for them officially in 2025). With that being said, Smith has minimal Cup experience, but has had some success in limited starts, finishing 13th in the DAYTONA 500 and 10th in the Coca-Cola 600 last year while driving for Front Row Motorsports. Smith is also a 2-time winner at Daytona, albeit in the Craftsman Truck Series, so he knows his way around the high banks quite well. Smith isn’t going to go out there and win this race using raw power. He drives for Spire Motorsports, in case we’ve forgotten. Nevertheless, he has shown solid pace through the race weekend and will start the 500 from 14th. We predict that Smith will drop back early and miss the heavy carnage and ease back up on them late for a second consecutive top 15 finish at the DAYTONA 500.
Love him or hate him, Denny Hamlin is one of the best superspeedway drivers in the sport. The DAYTONA 500 has seemingly been his playground throughout the years, with Hamlin earning 3 wins, 8 top 5’s and only 1 DNF in 18 starts in the “Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing.” Hamlin started 2024 off with a bang by winning the Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum and has continued to show great pace throughout Speedweeks, finishing 1st in the lone practice session and finishing 3rd in the Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at DAYTONA, which all adds up to an 8th place starting position for the DAYTONA 500. Hamlin has not yet found success in the DAYTONA 500 in the Next-Gen car, finishing 37th in 2022 and 17th last season. We predict that Hamlin will be in the hunt all day and will be a threat for the win late in the going. A top 10 finish for Hamlin feels like a safe bet when it comes to Daytona.
The 2021 winner of the DAYTONA 500, Michael McDowell has been the epitome of the underdog throughout his career, racing for smaller, underfunded teams and always making the most of his equipment. 2023 was another banner year for McDowell, as he picked up his second career Cup Series win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course and finished a career best 15th in the season long point standings. He rolled in to Daytona this week and unloaded a rocket ship of a car, showing great speed, qualifying second for the 500 (his best career qualifying result) and finishing 9th in the lone practice session (fastest of all the Fords). McDowell is always a perennial contender on superspeedways and he’s been quite solid in the 500 of late, with 1 win, 2 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s over the last 6 years. At the end of the day, all superspeedway races are crapshoots, but we predict that McDowell will have the good mojo and be in the right place at the right time and hoist the Harley J. Earl trophy for the second time by winning the 2024 DAYTONA 500!
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