The Cup Series continues today with the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. With this race being moved up earlier in the season this year to replace the hole left by NASCAR’s departure from Auto Club Speedway following its closure last year, the sport kicks off its season by visiting two consecutive drafting tracks, which could potentially lead to more earlier season carnage than usual.
Opened in 1960, Atlanta Motor Speedway is 1.54 mile oval that has hosted one or more NASCAR races each and every year since. Following the 2021 races, the track underwent a reconfiguration, increasing the banking in the corners from 24 to 28 degrees and narrowing the corner width from 55 to 40 feet, making it a bona fide drafting track like its Daytona and Talladega counterparts. The results: tight racing, more lead changes and dramatic finishes.
Since the reconfiguration, William Byron and Joey Logano are the only two winners of this race so far, but many legends have won it under the old configuration and under a variety of different race sponsors. Other past winners of the Ambetter Health 400 include Fireball Roberts, David Pearson, Rex White, Junior Johnson, Ned Jarrett, Marvin Panch, Richard Petty, Bobby Allison, Buddy Baker, Dave Marcis, Darrell Waltrip, Donnie Allison, Neil Bonnett, Cale Yarborough. Dale Earnhardt, Bill Elliott, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, Bobby Labonte, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Carly Edwards, Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney, just to name a few.
Last year’s edition was won by Joey Logano, who led 140 laps on the day and passed Brad Keselowski, his former Team Penske teammate, on the final lap to take home his lone win of 2023. Keselowski finished second, with Denny Hamlin finishing third, perennial underdog on drafting tracks Corey LaJoie finishing fourth and Tyler Reddick rounding out the top 5. Coverage of the Ambetter Health 400 can be seen on FOX, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.
The Bold Move Award in 2023 went to Josh Williams, who, after not being pleased when NASCAR told him to park his damaged car in the spring race at Atlanta in the Xfinity Series, did exactly that, by parking his car right on the start/finish line while under the caution, getting out of the car, and walking away. A man who was previously best known for his charity work with many children hospitals, Williams gained an entire cult of followers due to his “little team sticking it to the big man in charge” move. Williams ended up parlaying that into a new ride this season, racing full-time for Kaulig Racing in the Xfinity Series and part-time for them in the Cup Series. As much as we love seeing an underdog getting a golden chance, Williams’ stats at Atlanta are not stellar. In 5 Xfinity starts at Atlanta, Williams has 4 finishes outside the top 20, including a 37th place showing yesterday. Making his first Cup start for Kaulig this weekend and fourth ever Cup start, Williams has been ho hum so far, with a pair of 25th place finishes and a 31st place finish while driving for Live Fast Motorsports in 2022. Williams is going to roll off from 30th today and will likely be a non-factor on his way to a finish outside the top 20.
When you think of superspeedway ringers, I’m sure several drivers come to mind. Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, the list goes on. I’m sure most folks do not have Erik Jones on their shortlist, and those folks would be wrong. Fresh off an 8th place finish at the season opening DAYTONA 500, Jones comes to a track where he has quietly been putting together quality finishes. In 4 Cup starts at “New Atlanta,” Jones has had 1 top 5, 2 top 10’s, and 4 top 15 finishes. He’s only led 10 laps over those starts, so I would be quite surprised if he goes out there with a race winning car today. But the strategy is a pretty consistent one. A poor qualifying run (all 4 starts outside the top 20), avoid danger during the first 2 stages (earned stage points in just 1 of the 8 stages) and then ease up on them late for a solid finish after folks wreck out late in the final stage. So far, Jones is following that strategy to a T, as he had a very adventurous qualifying lap on the way to a 37th place starting spot (dead last unless any drivers drop to the rear before the race). Starting shotgun on the field, we predict that Jones will continue to follow his strategy for success at Atlanta and bring home a top 12 finish today.
You cannot go to a drafting track and not mention Ryan Blaney. Of his 10 Cup Series wins, 4 have come on superspeedways (Blaney won the spring race at Atlanta in 2021, but this was prior to the reconfiguration into a superspeedway), so he knows a thing or two about finding success in this type of racing. Since the reconfiguration of Atlanta, Blaney has found success across the board, starting in the top 6 in all 4 races (including a pair of front row starts), 2 stage wins, 42 laps led (led in all 4 races) and 3 straight top 10 finishes. Daytona did not go the way Blaney wanted, including a wreck in the Duels that sent him to a backup car for the 500, clawing his way back to the front to win Stage 2 of the race, only for it to all go blooey again by getting caught up in a wreck in the final stage and finishing 30th, as well as tweaking his wrist in the process. That injury doesn’t seem to have phased Blaney, as he has gotten off to a hot start again in Atlanta, qualifying 6th for today’s race and seemingly following the same path to success that he has had in other Atlanta races. We predict that Blaney will certainly be in the mix for the win, but a top 10 finish is seemingly a lock this afternoon.
The winner of yesterday’s Craftsman Truck Series race, Kyle Busch doesn’t necessarily have the most compelling stat sheet at “New Atlanta.” 1 top 5, 2 top 10’s and just 28 laps led in the last 4 starts. But he’s gotten better each time though, going 33rd, 20th, 10th and 5th in those 4 starts. Busch is a great driver, and yesterday’s Truck race is a prime example of that. He didn’t have the strongest truck all day, but he stepped up when it mattered most, leading 33 of the 135 laps on his way to his 65th career Craftsman Truck Series win and his first on the new configuration of Atlanta. Now humor me while I wax poetic for a moment. Over the course of his career, to me at least, Kyle Busch never seemed like a superspeedway favorite. Yes, he’s won 3 times in the Cup Series on drafting tracks, but he’s also gotten caught up in so many wrecks that it seemed like a wrecked race car or a DNF was almost a guarantee as soon as he would pull into the gates of a drafting track. But lately, I’ve noticed a different Kyle Busch. It’s almost like he is more patient, more deliberate, it’s almost like he’s actually getting wiser as he’s growing older. In 2022, 1 top 5 and 3 top 10’s in 6 drafting races. In 2023, 1 win, 2 top 5’s and 4 top 10’s in 6 drafting races. He was in the mix late before ultimately finishing 12th at Daytona last week and with his Truck win yesterday, just seems to be in the zone when it comes to the draft now. With all of that said, Kyle Busch is rolling off the grid 3rd today and we predict that he will lead early and often on the way to his first Cup Series win of 2024!
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