2026 Dollar Tree 301 Predictions

The Cup Series continues on this afternoon with the 2026 Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Hosting NASCAR annually since 1993, New Hampshire Motor Speedway serves as one of the flattest tracks that NASCAR visits each season, as the 1.058 mile asphalt oval features just one degree of banking on the straightaways and progressive banking in the corners ranging between two and seven degrees. With just two races to go in the regular season, drivers will look to make any gains they can to try and solidify their position in The Chase before the ultimate pressure cooker in the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday night.

Strategy could very well be all over the board this afternoon. A flat track where passing is difficult? Give me track position anyway I can get it. In the Craftsman Truck Series race, we saw several drivers do two tire stops and, surprisingly, the tires held up pretty well over the course of a run. Four fresh tires will still be the preferred option, but a late race caution with Chase implications on the line? Expect bold and brash decisions from drivers and crew chiefs. Patience will also be a virtue today. Passing is difficult (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) in the Gen Seven car, so drivers will have to fight the urge to use their bumper to move a driver out of the way. With the progressive banking, drivers will have more momentum in the second lane of this track, so passing around the bottom will be tough, but not impossible. Restarts and pit stops will also be more vital than ever because of these passing difficulties. The quickest way to pass drivers is always when they’re all bunched up. Lastly, with the start of the race being moved up an hour due to the threat of rain, expect plenty of aggression early on. The goal is obviously to race to the checkered flag, but if that rain winds up hitting earlier than expected during the final stage, expect a free-for-all coming down the stretch.

The Dollar Tree 301 was first held in 1993 and has produced a strong list of winners throughout the years. Jeff Burton has the most wins in this race, finding victory lane in three consecutive years from 1997 through 1999, while Christopher Bell, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, and Tony Stewart are also multi-time winners at The Magic Mile.

Last year’s edition was won by Ryan Blaney, who started on the front row, won Stage One, and led 116 laps on the way to his first New Hampshire victory. Josh Berry led 10 laps on the way to a runner-up finish, William Byron was the highest-placing Chevrolet in third, Polesitter Joey Logano won Stage Two and led a race-high 147 laps on the way to a fourth place finish, and Chase Elliott led five laps on the way to a fifth place showing. Kyle Larson led four laps on the way to a seventh place finish, Chase Briscoe led 19 laps on the way to a 10th place finish, and Cody Ware paced the field for two laps on the way to a 31st place finish.

Coverage of the Dollar Tree 301 can be seen on the USA Network, with coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Let’s start off with some highlights. Zane Smith is statistically having his best Cup Series season to date, posting a pair of top 5’s and six top 10 finishes to rank 24th in the Driver Standings. That’s where the good times end for Smith this week. Flat tracks have been Smith’s Achilles heel this season, as the Front Row Motorsports driver has struggled mightily on this style of track. Finishes of 27th at Phoenix, 34th at Martinsville, 37th at Pocono, and 15th at Indianapolis (Finally, marching toward the front!) do not bode well entering this weekend at New Hampshire. Yes, Smith does roll out from 14th position this afternoon, but one solid lap in qualifying is not representative of his practice session, where he laid down the 22nd fastest lap of the session and ranked outside the top 20 on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 Lap Averages. With finishes of 30th and 27th in his previous two New Hampshire starts, expect Zane Smith to struggle from start to finish on the way to another finish outside the top 25 at The Magic Mile.

Dark Horse:

Nothing gives a driver more incentive for success than being let go from their current ride and still not having a ride for next season secured this late into the season. Many would crumble under the pressure, but not Josh Berry. For Berry, it’s quite the opposite. After being announced that Berry would not be returning to Wood Brothers Racing next season and that he was being replaced by Jesse Love, Berry has gone on an absolute heater, posting three straight top 10 finishes (with a best finish of fourth coming at Iowa) after scoring just two top 10 finishes in the first 21 races of the campaign. Don’t expect that heater to end this week, either, as New Hampshire has served as Berry’s best Cup Series track, finished third here in 2024 and finishing runner-up last season after leading 10 laps. So far this weekend, Berry smells blood in the water and is once again chomping at the bit, posting the ninth fastest lap of Practice and ranking inside the top 10 on 5 and 10 Lap Averages and inside the top five on 15, 20, 25, and 30 Lap Averages. Berry carried that success over into qualifying, where he ultimately qualified in second position, his best qualifying effort of the season, just 0.015 seconds behind Polesitter Tyler Reddick. A win IS NOT that farfetched for Berry given his success here and his recent momentum. Lock in Josh Berry for a third straight top 10 finish in New Hampshire and a fourth straight top 10 finish in 2026.

Top 10:

Christopher Bell has had a damn fine season, even though he has yet to win, posting 10 top 5’s (including seven runner-up performances, four of which have come in his last six starts) and 12 top 10 finishes to slot in seventh in the Driver Standings (T-6 with Elliott, but Elliott owns the tiebreaker), just 20 points behind fellow Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe in fifth position. Looking to remove that goose egg from the win column, Christopher “Mr. New Hampshire” Bell is coming back to one of his strongest tracks on the schedule, posting two wins, three top 5’s, four top 10’s, and 192 laps led in six career starts at the track. This weekend is shaping up into what could be another strong performance by Bell in the Granite State, posting the 10th fastest lap of Practice and pacing the field on 10 Lap Averages before ultimately qualifying in sixth position. Regardless of where he starts at this track, Bell always finds his way to the front by race end. Expect Bell to maintain that top 10 starting position all race long as he gives himself a chance for the win late in the going before locking down another top 10 finish at New Hampshire.

Winner:

I HATE to pick the same handful of drivers to win every week, but at this point, those select few are heads and shoulders above the rest. Ryan Blaney has been the man for Ford all season long (although perennial postseason threat Joey Logano is thawing out at just the right time), posting a pair of wins (Phoenix and EchoPark summer race), five top 10’s, and 16 top 10 finishes to rank second in the Driver Standings, a mere 115 points behind points leader Denny Hamlin. The defending winner of this race, Blaney has had solid results at New Hampshire in his career, with one win, three top 5’s, five top 10’s, 10 top 20’s, and 185 laps led in 13 starts at the track. Blaney may have only posted the 16th fastest lap of Practice, but he has the long run pace dialed in, pacing the field on 15, 20, 25, and 30 Lap Averages. Blaney has been an absolute stud at Phoenix in his career, which is often compared to New Hampshire due to its length and lack of banking. Blaney may not be as flashy at New Hampshire in comparison, but he has proven time and time again that he has the patience and speed to not only contend, but to find victory lane. Blaney will roll out from the eighth position this afternoon, and I predict that he will capitalize on his track position and successfully defend his title in the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway!