2026 Cook Out 400 Predictions

The Cup Series rolls on tonight with the 2026 Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway. A D-shaped oval featuring 14 degrees of banking in the turns, eight degrees of banking on the frontstretch, and two degrees of banking on the backstretch, Richmond Raceway first opened for racing in 1946 and has hosted NASCAR annually since 1953. With just three races to go in the regular season, expect plenty of fierce short track beating and banging under the lights as drivers looks to solidify their position in The Chase, or, in some cases, put themselves into a position to even qualify for The Chase.

It’s a short track Saturday night, and you know what that means Gen 7 fans: Oh boy! No passing and 400 laps of follow the leader! Time to catch my boomer nap before going to Facebook to complain about how I couldn’t find the race! But for real though, passing is difficult on short tracks. Patience is required to set up the pass and make it stick. It can be done though, in spite of what others may say. Restarts and pit road will be killer opportunities to make up the most ground possible in as short of a stretch as possible. Strategy: not much to report about. Track position is king, and four, fresh Goodyear tires is ALWAYS the correct call. Richmond is a very abrasive racing surface, and we saw tire fall off as quickly as the second qualifying lap, so drivers will want four fresh ones every trip down pit road. Tire and equipment management will go hand in hand. With short tracks often producing long green flag runs, give an edge to the veteran drivers who can manage their tires over the course of a run, can manage their tempers, and who will only use the chrome horn as needed. Aero isn’t always super important when it comes to the short tracks, but if you beat up your car over the course of the race, you’ll pay for it greatly late in the going. Remember, short track races are a marathon, not a sprint. Expect plenty of close, side-by-side action on the track tonight, lots of beating and banging, and the occasional dump and run (looking for Austin “The Bulldozer” Dillon) as drivers will look to claim victory under the lights at the historic Richmond Raceway.

The Cook Out 400 has been a staple on the NASCAR schedule since its debut in 1958, producing an incredible list of winners through the years, along with the occasional upset along the way. Richard Petty has the record for most wins in this race, finding victory seven times in his career. Bobby Allison won this race five times, Rusty Wallace and Darrell Waltrip each won this race four times, and Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are each three time winners of this race. Austin Dillon, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Cotton Owens, David Pearson, Speedy Thompson, Martin Truex Jr., and Joe Weatherly are also multi-time Richmond winners.

Last year’s race was won by Austin Dillon, who started from 11th position and went on to lead 107 laps on the way to winning this race (non-controversially this time) for a second straight season. Alex Bowman would finish in the runner-up position, while Ryan Blaney would lead 39 laps on the way to a third place finish. Blaney’s teammates, Joey Logano and Austin Cindric, would go ahead and round out the top five, with Cindric pacing the field for two circuits on the day. Kyle Larson led nine laps on the way to a sixth place finish, Daniel Suarez led one lap on the way to a seventh place finish, and Brad Keselowski would lead two laps on the way to a ninth place finishing position. Carson Hocevar led 10 laps on the way to a 15th place finish, Michael McDowell led six laps on the way to a 17th place finish, Bubba Wallace won Stage Two and led a race-high 123 laps on the way to a 28th place finish, Tyler Reddick won Stage One and led 41 laps on the way to a 34th place finish, and Polesitter Ryan Preece led 60 laps on the way to a 35th place finish.

Coverage of the Cook Out 400 can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race beginning at 6:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 7 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

After a historic start to the 2026 season that saw Tyler Reddick win the first three races of the campaign and five of the first nine, he has faded back to mortal status as the summer has gone on, posting five finishes of 30th or worse over the last nine races to plummet to fourth in the Driver Standings, 120 points behind his boss, Denny Hamlin. The summer slide was part of the lawsuit too, wasn’t it? Wasn’t it?!?!? Anyway, short track racing has not been Reddick’s strong suit at any point in his career. Outside of a surprise fourth place finish at Bristol in the spring, Reddick’s next best finish on a short track this season was a 15th place showing at Martinsville. Richmond has been kind of mid for Reddick in his career, posting just one top five, two top 10’s, and eight top 20 finishes in 10 starts at the track, and most recently posting a 34th place finish here last summer. Reddick showed some surprising pace in Practice, ranking inside the top 10 on 5 and 10 Lap Averages and inside the top five on 15 Lap Averages before going for a spin later in the session. Reddick went on to struggle during qualifying and will roll out from 32nd position tonight. With track position being king, expect Reddick to go a lap down early and struggle most of the night on the way to another finish outside the top 20.

Dark Horse:

The first driver currently below the cutline for The Chase, Ryan Preece is doing everything he can to pick up just one more spot in the standings. With five top 10’s and 16 top 20 finishes this season (not to mention winning The Clash at Bowman Gray to unofficially kick off the 2026 season), Preece currently sits 29 points below the cutline. And if you factor in the 25 point penalty Preece received for “intentionally or unintentionally” wrecking Ty Gibbs at Texas earlier this season, he would be a mere four points below the cutline. Don’t press that button, kids! Preece grew up as a short track ace in the northeastern part of the country, and Richmond is a track that has highlighted those abilities of Preece during his career. Yes, he only has one top five and four top 20’s at Richmond, but that top five came while driving in the twilight years of Stewart-Haas Racing. But also, Preece started this race on the Pole last season and led 60 laps before ultimately finishing in 35th position. Preece has a pair of top 10’s and has finished inside the top 20 on all four short track races this season, and although he didn’t show a ton of pace in Practice, he laid down a monster lap in qualifying to roll out from sixth position tonight, his best qualifying effort so far this season. A win would be a massive upset, and, frankly, a tall ask given the inconsistent pace shown by Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing this season. But with Preece’s short track prowess, some early stage points and a top 12 finish would go a long way toward keeping his hopes of making The Chase alive for another race.

Top 10:

Everybody’s favorite NASCAR nepo baby, Ty Gibbs is having himself the year we all knew he was capable of having, picking up his first two career wins (Bristol and last week at Iowa) to go along with 10 top 5’s and 15 top 20’s to slot in second in the Driver Standings, just 103 points behind his teammate, Denny Hamlin, during this final stretch of the regular season. Short tracks have been Gibbs’ bread and butter since joining the Cup Series, posting two wins, six top 5’s, nine top 10’s, 18 top 20’s, and 532 laps led in 22 starts. Richmond success has eluded Gibbs so far in his Cup career, with just one top 10 (ninth in the 2023 spring race) and four top 20’s in six career starts. Gibbs was another driver that was quiet in Practice, laying down the 20th fastest lap of the session before locking down a fourth place starting position. Say what you want, but Ty Gibbs has come into his own in 2026, become a threat to win nearly every week and being a constant present toward the front in the later stages of more and more races. I wouldn’t bet against him to double down and take home another short track victory tonight, but a top 10 finish seemingly feels like a lock for Gibbs given his confidence and momentum after a strong run to victory last weekend in Iowa.

Winner:

The points leader. A Virginia native. A five-time Richmond winner. That’s the whole post for Denny Hamlin. A driver who continually gets better with age, Hamlin has four victories (five with the All Star Race), 13 top 5’s, and 15 top 10’s to hold a 103 point lead in the Driver Standings with just three races to go in the regular season. Hamlin has seemingly taken a back seat to some other storylines of late (Heim Time, the Penske boys, Bell’s runner-up blues, the list goes on), but he has been right there knocking at the door since his most recent victory at Pocono, posting four top five finishes in the last five races, highlighted by a runner-up performance behind Joey Logano at North Wilkesboro. Richmond has been Hamlin’s playground in his career, posting five wins, 20 top 5’s, 25 top 10’s, 32 top 20’s, and 2,367 laps led in 37 starts at the Virginia short track. His last dozen starts at the track: two wins, nine top 5’s, and eleven top 12 finishes. Much like his much younger teammate above, Hamlin has been absolutely locked in on the short tracks this season, with a pair of runner-up showings at Martinsville (292 laps led) and North Wilkesboro (nine laps led), a fifth place finish at Iowa, and a ninth place finish at Bristol. Hamlin showed flashes of his potential in Practice, laying down the sixth fastest lap of the session and ranking inside the top 10 on 25 and 30 Lap Averages before qualifying in 14th position. It’s not a sexy pick by any means, but my gut just keeps telling me that Hamlin will use his veteran experience to march his way forward as the race progresses. We’re riding with Denny Hamlin to pad his points lead, pick up his fifth official victory of 2026, and a sixth career Richmond victory in the Cook Out 400!