2026 Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA Predictions

The Cup Series rolls on today as it returns to the Pennsylvania mountains and Pocono Raceway for the 2026 Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA. Pocono Raceway serves as one of the most unique tracks on the schedule each season, with each of the three turns in the 2.5-mile, asphalt tri-oval being modeled off of a different, historic track: turn one has 14 degrees of banking and is modeled after Trenton Speedway; turn two has eight degrees of banking and is modeled after Indianapolis Motor Speedway; and turn three has six degrees of banking and is modeled after the Milwaukee Mile. Hosting NASCAR annually since 1971, Pocono Raceway is a track that continues to flummox and perplex the best of the sport each and every year with its diabolical configuration.

Today’s race will be a masterclass of patience, first and foremost. As we saw in both the race and Practice and qualifying yesterday for the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, Pocono Raceway is anything but a smooth, Sunday drive. Multiple drivers had race-ending accidents in all three turns on the track, whether that was caused by losing grip and snapping up the track towards the wall, hitting bumps and just losing complete control, having brake or tire failures, or just by overcooking it into the corner and going full speed into the wall. Regardless of the cause, drivers will have to remain patient, take what the track gives them, and most importantly, listen to what their car tells them. Raw speed is important due to the long straightaways, but handling may be more important this year than at any previous Pocono race due to the instability of the car and the roughness of the track.

Passing is very difficult at this track, even more so if your car is handling poorly. The most ground can be gained on restarts, where drivers can spread out five or six-wide on the frontstretch and still have space to spare. Due to the track length, drivers can also flip the stage and pit early, provided they are within so many second of the leader. Four tires is an absolute must at Pocono, so strategy is limited, to an extent. This race has tradionally been known for long, green flag runs in the final stage, so fuel conservation has paved the way to spirited battles and surprise upsets through the years (more on that later). Between drafting off the driver in front of you on the long straightaways, or simply easing off the throttle over the course of 2.5 miles every lap, a driver can save an incredible amount of fuel, which could very well be the difference between a great day or a waste of 400 miles.

Finally, drivers must manage their equipment. With speeds approaching 200 miles per hour on certain parts of the track, a parts failure is catastrophic. Brake failures, cut tires, blown engines, the list goes on. Even in the era of safety that the drivers race in, hitting the wall at those speeds can be career ending (Kurt Busch) or just make you gun shy going forward (Jimmie Johnson). Much like last week at Michigan, this race will play right into the hands of the cagey veterans and the steady eddies who are able to capitalize on the mistakes of other drivers and show up at the end of the race when it counts the most.

The Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA was first held in 1971 and has produced many victories by the all-time greats of NASCAR, as well as the occasional upset. Denny Hamlin has won this race the most times, finding Victory Lane five times so far in his career. Bill Elliott won this race four times, while Kyle Busch, Richard Petty, Rusty Wallace, and Darrell Waltrip each have three victories in this race. Geoffrey Bodine, Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jeff Gordon, Dale Jarrett, Bobby Labonte, and Tim Richmond are also multi-time winners of this race.

Toyota has been the team to beat all season long, regardless of track type, and Pocono is no different. Joe Gibbs Racing has won eight of the last eleven races at Pocono, including a stretch of five straight from 2017-2021 (Kyle Busch in 2017, 2018, and 2021 and Denny Hamlin in 2019 and 2020) that could’ve been nine straight if either Hamlin or Busch had passed post-race inspection in 2022. Chevrolet has the most wins in this race, finding Victory Lane 15 times, but last won in 2022 with Chase Elliott (who initially finished third before the post-race snafu mentioned above) and last crossed the finish line first with Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2014. Ford’s most recent Pocono victory came in 2024 with Ryan Blaney, but they’ve only posted one other victory in this race over the last 15 years (Chris Buescher’s fog-shortened victory in 2016).

Last year’s edition was won by Chase Briscoe, who won Stage Two and led a race-high 72 laps on the way to victory. Polesitter Denny Hamlin won Stage One and led 32 laps on the way to a runner-up performance, Ryan Blaney led three laps on the way to a third place finish, Chris Buescher led two laps on the way to a fourth place finish, and Chase Elliott was the highest placing Chevrolet driver in fifth position. Brad Keselowski led 27 laps on the way to a ninth place finish, Alex Bowman led 15 laps on the way to an 11th place finish, Joey Logano led five laps on the way to a 16th place finish, Carson Hocevar led two laps on the way to an 18th place finish, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. led two laps on the way to a 30th place finish.

Coverage of the Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA can be seen on Amazon Prime, with pre-race coverage beginning at 12 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 1 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nDJhQ3Rz528&ra=m

This has been an absolute nightmare of a season for my favorite driver, Ross Chastain, posting just one top five (a third place showing at EchoPark Speedway) and two top 10 finishes to rank 24th in the Driver Standings, 72 points below the cutline for qualifying for The Chase. How bad of a season has it been? His 16th place finish last week at Michigan was tied for his third best showing of the season (also finished 16th at Darlington and Martinsville). Yeah, that bad. This week doesn’t look like it will be much better for Chastain, either. In 10 career starts at the Tricky Triangle, Chastain has only led 26 laps and posted just two top 25 finishes (13th in 2023 with Trackhouse Racing and 24th in June 2019 while driving for Premium Motorsports (Who?!?!)) and has failed to finish in two of the last four Pocono races. Chastain showed modest pace in Practice, ranking inside the top 10 on 5 and 10 Lap Averages before qualifying in 24th position. With the lack of luck and pace that Chastain has been battling this season, I expect today to be filled with more struggles and another finish outside the top 20.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://kickinthetires.net/nascar/cup/erik-jones-top-10-again-at-pocono-we-went-from-a-25th-place-team-to-a-top-12-team/

Toyota has been the manufacturer to beat in 2026, with Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing combining for nine wins in the first 15 races. However, there is a third team under the Toyota banner in Legacy Motor Club, who are starting to make waves this summer while being led by Cup Series veteran Erik Jones. After a quick start featuring a pair of top 10 finishes in the first six races and a “sluggish” middle (although some drivers would kill for these results) featuring four straight finishes outside the top 20, Jones has started to show that same pace as the rest of Toyotas, posting four top 15 finishes in the last five starts (not including a third place finish at the All-Star Race), capped off by a season-best runner-up finish last weekend at Michigan, pacing the way for the rest of us mortals a mere 11 seconds behind Denny Hamlin. Sitting just 18 points below The Chase cutoff line, Jones is heating up at the right time to try and make that postseason push. Erik Jones thrives very well at certain tracks, and Pocono is one of his best, posting five top five finishes, eight top 10’s, 10 top 20’s, and 56 laps led in 14 career starts. Jones has four straight top 15 finishes at Pocono and has finished inside the top five in four of the last eight Stages and inside the top 10 in six of the last eight Stages at Pocono. Jones is picking right back up this weekend where he left off last weekend, posting the 14th fastest lap of Practice and ranking inside the top 10 on 5 Lap Averages and inside the top five on 10 and 15 Lap Averages before qualifying in seventh position for today’s race, his best qualifying effort of the season and his second straight race starting inside the top 10. A win isn’t that farfetched given his track record here, but lock in Erik Jones for a fourth straight top 15 finish (and possibly a little bit more) in 2026 and a fifth straight top 15 finish at Pocono.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://www.oneidadispatch.com/2016/08/01/nascar-buescher-picks-up-first-win-in-rain-shortened-race-at-pocono/

An absolute bulldog on the track, Chris Buescher has just been quietly lurking all season long, posting a pair of top fives (second at Talladega and fifth at Texas) and seven top 10’s to go against just three finishes outside the top 20 to slot in eighth in the Driver Standings, second best among all Ford drivers. Much like his on-track persona, Pocono has been a steady track for Buescher in his career. Buescher first broke onto the scene a decade ago, capturing his first career Cup Series victory at the track in a race shortened by fog while driving the #34 Ford for Front Row Motorsports in August 2016. Overall, Buescher has one win, two top 5’s, three top 10’s, 11 top 20’s, and 42 laps led in 16 career Pocono starts, including a runner-up showing in this race last season. Fresh off of a ninth place finish last week at Michigan, Buescher is geared up for more this afternoon, pacing the field on 5 Lap Averages and posting the fifth fastest lap of Practice on the way to a sixth place qualifying effort. Patience and tenacity pays off at a track like Pocono, and Chris Buescher is the poster child for both of these qualities. Expect Buescher to be a threat for the victory this afternoon on the way to another top 10 finish.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://tobychristie.com/nascar/cup-series/denny-hamlin-runs-kyle-larson-into-wall-collects-50th-cup-series-victory-at-pocono/

As much as I would like to wax poetic again about this guy, I run the risk of alienating all of Boomer and Anti-Yoter Nation, so this week, just the facts. Denny Hamlin is the best driver on the track right now, and frankly, I’m not sure if it’s even close. Hamlin has three wins (four if you include the All-Star Race), eight top 10’s, and 10 top 10’s to go against just one finish outside the top 16 (31st at the Daytona 500) to slot in second in the Driver Standings, a mere 51 points behind Tyler Reddick, who has been leading the Driver Standings after every single race thus far in 2026. The last month and a half has been the most impressive: wins in each of the last two races at Nashville and Michigan, a win in the All-Star Race, a runner-up showing at Texas, and a third place performance (which likely would’ve been another win if the rains didn’t come) in the Coca-Cola 600 after winning a stage and leading 75 laps on the day. And it’s not like Hamlin is just backing into these wins like a hack, either (Is it ever too soon?), winning the Pole three times (four if you’re counting the All-Star Race), starting on the front row five times (six with the All-Star Race), and starting from inside the top five seven times (eight with the All-Star Race). And we haven’t even touched on his Pocono dominance in his career. The site of his first Cup Series victory in 2006 (make sure you take that ibuprofen before you stand up, kids!), Hamlin and Pocono have been a match made in Heaven from the very start, posting seven wins, 17 top 5’s, 24 top 10’s, 29 top 20’s, five Pole positions, and 890 laps led in 36 career starts at the Tricky Triangle (tops in all categories among active drivers). And his recent stats at the track? Damn near flawless, picking up win #7 in 2023 and finishing runner-up in both 2024 and 2025 while leading a combined 72 laps across those three starts. Hamlin showed decent pace in Practice, ranking inside the top 10 on both 5 and 10 Lap Averages and posting the second fastest lap of the Practice session before posting a massive lap in qualifying, being the only driver to break the 52-second mark with a time of 51.948, to earn the Pole for the second straight year at Pocono and for the third straight race in 2026. Right now, it is Denny Hamlin’s world, and we’re all just living in it, and until someone beats him, you’d be foolish to bet against him at what has been one of his best tracks in his career. We are predicting that Denny Hamlin will triple down and continue to make history today by winning three consecutive races for the first time in his career, by winning his fourth race of the campaign (fifth counting the All-Star Race), and by winning for the eighth time at the Tricky Triangle with a victory in the Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA at Pocono Raceway!


Discover more from Birdies and Burnouts

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Leave a Reply

Discover more from Birdies and Burnouts

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading