The Cup Series rolls on this afternoon with the 2026 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Serving as the lone, two-mile oval on the Cup Series schedule this season, Michigan International Speedway features 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 12 degrees of banking on the frontstretch, and five degrees of banking on the backstretch and has continued to test the patience of the best of auto racing since opening in 1968.
Track position is king this afternoon, as Michigan is arguably the toughest track to pass on in the Cup Series. Drivers often get a run on the driver in front of them going down the long straightaways, but if they don’t have enough momentum in the middle of the corner, not only will they fail to complete the pass, they leave themselves vulnerable to being passed by multiple drivers directly behind them. The preferred lane is the top lane, courtesy of the momentum coming off the corner, but passing can be completed around the bottom if drivers stay patient. In many ways, this track serves as a mini-superspeedway, with drivers running in tandem often having the necessary momentum to execute a pass properly. The best passing opportunities will come on restarts and, of course, on pit road. Four tires will always be the winning call, but as we saw last year, fuel mileage can come into play depending on when the final caution falls. This is a track that favors veterans, plain and simple. Patience and equipment management are both rewarded. A race prone to long, follow the leader, green flag runs, followed by brief, terrifying bouts of overtime, the veteran driver who is able to go from steady to full send at the flip of a switch will be most poised to find their way to Victory Lane at race end.
Kevin Harvick and David Pearson share the record for most victories in this race, with each of them finding Victory Lane five times. Bill Elliott, Dale Jarrett, Mark Martin, and Richard Petty each have a trio of wins in this race, while Bobby Allison, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Kyle Larson, Rusty Wallace, Darrell Waltrip, and Cale Yarborough are also multi-time winners of this race. This race has traditionally served as a 400 mile victory lap for Ford, whose world headquarters is a mere 65 miles away in Dearborn, and, who have won this race 24 times through the years, including a stretch of four consecutive years (1985-1988) and six consecutive years (2018-2023). However, Toyota has been the team to beat in the Irish Hills of late, winning in 2024 with Tyler Reddick and last season with Denny Hamlin, while Chevrolet is looking to return to Victory Lane in Michigan for the first time in nearly a decade (Kyle Larson in 2017 is the most recent victory for Chevrolet).
Last year’s edition was won by Denny Hamlin, who managed his tires and put on a masterclass in saving fuel to take the lead for good with four laps to go to grab the victory. Chris Buescher won Stage One and led 13 laps on the way to a runner-up performance, Ty Gibbs finished in third, Bubba Wallace finished in fourth, and Kyle Larson rounded out the top five. Zane Smith led two laps on the way to a seventh place finish, Chase Elliott led 19 laps on the way to a 15th place finish, Christopher Bell led two laps on the way to a 16th place finish, Polesitter Chase Briscoe led 11 laps on the way to a 23rd place finish, Cody Ware led one lap on the way to a 26th place finish, William Byron won Stage Two and led a race-high 98 laps on the way to a 28th place finish, Carson Hocevar led 32 laps on the way to a 29th place finish, Austin Cindric led 10 laps on the way to a 31st place finish, and Ryan Blaney led seven laps on the way to a 32nd place finish.
Coverage of the FireKeepers Casino 400 can be seen on Amazon Prime, with pre-race coverage beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.
2026 has been a poor season for Alex Bowman. Currently ranked 32nd in the Driver Standings due to missing four races with vertigo symptoms, Bowman has been feast or famine in his return, posting a pair of third place finishes (Talladega and Texas) to go against five finishes outside the top 15 (including three finishes of 25th or worse) across seven races. To make matters worse, Bowman has been absolutely ass at Michigan in his career, posting three top 10’s (no finishes better than ninth), six top 20’s, and just 19 laps led in 16 starts. His recent results have been even more discouraging, finishing 27th or worse in this race each of the last three years (although he led all 19 of those laps in the 2023 race) and outside the top 20 in five of his last seven starts at the track. Bowman showed no pace yesterday, logging the 33rd fastest lap of Practice (out of 37 drivers) before qualifying in 29th position. Fresh off of a 33rd place finish at Nashville, expect Alex Bowman’s struggles in the Irish Hills to continue with another finish outside the top 15 at Michigan.
After kicking off the season with a sixth place finish at the Daytona 500 and a seventh place finish at EchoPark Speedway, Zane Smith went through an extremely dismal stretch, finishing outside the top 20 in five of the next seven races, including three finishes of 32nd or worse. However, Smith has gotten things back on track of late, posting a top five finish at Talladega and posting top 10’s over each of the last two races (10th in the Coca-Cola 600, ninth at Nashville) to jump back into the top 20 in the Driver Standings, only 34 points below the cutoff for The Chase as we enter the pivotal summer stretch. With momentum in tow, Smith returns to a track that has been one of his best in his young Cup Series career, finishing 7th in both of his Michigan starts and winning in the Craftsman Truck Series at this very track in 2020. Smith didn’t really wow us in Practice, posting the 27th fastest lap of the session before qualifying in 16th, but certain drivers are just horses for courses on certain tracks, and Michigan is quickly becoming one of those for Zane Smith. A win would be improbable, but lock down Zane Smith for a third straight top 10 finish, both at Michigan and in his 2026 campaign.
After three seasons of waiting, 2026 has been the breakthrough campaign that we were all expecting from Ty Gibbs, picking up his first Cup Series win at Bristol to go along with six top 5’s and nine top 10’s to slot in fifth in the Driver Standings. Much like the driver above and the driver below, Gibbs has quickly turned Michigan into his own playground, finishing no worse than 11th in four career starts at the track while posting back-to-back third place finishes in 2024 and 2025. His O’Reilly Auto Parts Series averages at the track aren’t too shabby, either, winning here in 2022 to go along with a fourth place showing in 2023 and a 13th place finish in 2021. Gibbs didn’t show his hand entirely in Practice, ranking toward the back half of the top 20 on both 5 and 10 Lap Averages, but fired his shot in qualifying, slotting in fourth position for today’s race. A win is very much a possibility for this young driver, but expect Gibbs to run up front this afternoon and be in the mix for the win late in the going on his way to another top 10 finish.
This guy ages like a fine wine; there’s just no other way to describe it. Grab yourself a fistful of Tums while I wax poetic about Denny Hamlin for the rest of this post. At 45-years-old, Hamlin continues to defy both Father Time and a field containing drivers who are either young enough to be his own kid or half his age in general as he continues to put together another masterful campaign in the twilight of his career, posting two wins (Las Vegas and Charlotte, three wins if counting the All-Star Race), seven top 5’s, nine top 10 finishes, and only one finish outside the top 16 (31st at the Daytona 500) to slot in second in the Driver Standings, just 97 points behind the car that he owns in the #45 Toyota Camry of Tyler Reddick as he continues his quest for that elusive first-career championship. His Michigan stats? Stout, earning three wins, 13 top 5’s, 20 top 10’s, 29 top 20’s, and 268 laps led in 35 career starts. The recent results? Once again, aging like a fine wine, posting eight straight top 10’s at the track (six of them being top five finishes) and last finishing outside the top 16 in July 2016, which was 15 Michigan starts ago if you’re keeping track. Oh, and did I mention he won this race last year after conserving enough fuel and that he is coming off a victory last week that he won with a last lap pass on multiple teammates? Hamlin has already flexed his Michigan prowess so far this weekend, laying down the fifth fastest lap of the Practice session and ranking inside the top five on both 5 and 10 Lap Averages before putting down a monster lap as the last driver to go out during qualifying, locking down the Pole position by just 0.018 seconds over Michigan-native Carson Hocevar. After starting on the Pole last week at Nashville, I predict that Denny Hamlin is going to double down and put on another signature performance in the Irish Hills as he successfully defends his race victory from a year ago, locks in a fourth career Michigan, and wins for the second straight week in 2026 with a victory in the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway!
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