2026 Cook Out 400 Predictions

The Cup Series picks back up this afternoon as it returns to Martinsville Speedway for the 2026 Cook Out 400. First opened in 1947, Martinsville Speedway is a 0.526 oval with 12 degrees of banking in the turns and featuring both asphalt and concrete (lower part of the turns only)for the track surface. The shortest track on the schedule, Martinsville also serves as the oldest track on the schedule, hosting at least one race every year since NASCAR’s debut season in 1949.

If there ever was a track where track position is most important, it’s this one. Short track racing has proven to be the kryptonite of this Gen Seven car, with passing being extremely difficult (unless you’re Ryan Blaney, who always migrates to the front ever race, regardless of starting position). It can often take many laps to set up a run to make just one pass. But one wrong move and you can easily lose half a dozen spots in one lap, undoing any progress made. Drivers will want to get all they can on both pit roads and restarts, as that will be the easiest way to gain positions. A pit road penalty is an automatic death sentence at this track though, so drivers must tread lightly when coming for fuel and tires. Might we see two-tire pit stops and other contrarian strategies? Sure thing! Drivers will want that track position, and if they can just park their car at the front, they can ultimately be a hard pass, unless drivers want to use that ol’ chrome horn. Tires do matter, to an extent. You don’t want to hurt them by going super aggressive early on in a run and holding on for dear life late in one of those signature Martinsville long green flag runs, but if you manage them well enough, you can make some bold pit calls late in the going to give yourself a shot at the win.

These cars will have increased horsepower, utilizing 750 horsepower this afternoon versus the traditional 670 horsepower. Will it help with passing? On paper, everything looks like a good idea. But based on what we saw at both Phoenix and Darlington, I expect lots more action over the course of 400 laps today. Drivers must use great patience to make it to the end of the race. Passing will be difficult, and you always feel like you’re in traffic. Clean racetrack? Not today! With several cars showing great short run pace and poor handling qualifying up front (SVG, Carson Hocevar, Austin Cindric) and several cars with great long run pace and great handling qualifying further back in the field (Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain), expect plenty of comers and goers early on. With the differential in pace, drivers will undoubtedly be using the front bumper to move slower cars out of the way today. Raw speed isn’t a prerequisite for success today, but if you mess the car’s handling up, it could very much be a long afternoon. Drivers who properly manage their tempers and show that patience are typically most successful.

Short track races traditionally go one of two ways: long green flag runs with minimal cautions or demolition derby with lots of cautions and beating and banging. The Cup Series is more likely to keep it clean, but if you watched the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race yesterday afternoon, then you undoubtedly saw that massive pileup with roughly a dozen cars and the endless stream of cautions in the final stage. Some of those cars look like they had been through a war when it was all said and done, but as long as you have four tires on the car and half-decent handling, you have a chance to win. Finding that right balance between short track pace and long run pace will be extremely vital. With close, side-by-side racing, lots of beating and banging and plenty of hurt feelings, Martinsville always produces some of the most aggressive racing of season. Which driver will find a way to manage it all, conquer the Paperclip, and take home that glorious grandfather clock at the Half Mile of Mayhem?

The Cook Out 400 has been a staple on the NASCAR schedule since 1950, with the list of winners reading like a true Hall of Fame roll call. Richard Petty has won this race the most, finding Victory Lane nine times in his career. Rusty Wallace and Darrell Waltrip have each won the coveted grandfather clock five times in their career. Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with four wins in this race, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Cale Yarborough are all three-time Martinsville winners, while Buck Baker, Geoffrey Bodine, William Byron, Harry Gant, Brad Keselowski, Fred Lorenzen, Mark Martin, Jim Paschal, Lee Petty, Martin Truex Jr., and Curtis Turner are also multi-time winners of this race.

Last year’s race was won by Denny Hamlin, who won Stage Two and led a race-high 274 laps on the way to a fourth career victory in this race, and his first since 2015. Polesitter Christopher Bell led 25 laps on the way to a runner-up performance, Bubba Wallace finished third, Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott led 42 laps on the way to a fourth place finish, and his teammate, Kyle Larson, rounded out the top five. Joey Logano won Stage One and led 13 laps on the way to an eighth place finish, Alex Bowman led six laps on the way to a 27th place finish, and Josh Berry led 40 laps on the way to a 32nd place finish.

Coverage of the Cook Out 400 can be seen on Fox Sports One, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Once upon a time, A. J. Allmendinger used to be a half decent driver at Martinsville, posting a pair of runner-ups, five top 10’s, and 12 top 15 finishes while running for a variety of iconic teams, including Gillett Evernham Motorsports, Richard Petty Motorsports, Penske Racing, and JTG Daugherty Racing. But since linking up with Kaulig Racing and the #16 car in 2022, it’s like Allmendinger has forgotten how to drive a car, finishing no better than 23rd and qualifying inside the top 20 just once in his last six Martinsville starts. After posting four straight top 20 finishes to open the campaign, including a ninth place showing at Circuit of the Americas, Allmendinger has struggled to find that consistency since then, finishing 24th at Las Vegas and 30th at Darlington. This weekend is proving to be much of the same struggle, with Allmendinger consistently ranking outside the top 20 on short run and long run pace before qualifying in 28th position. For a team built on trophy hunting, Kaulig Racing will be once again looking for a participation trophy, with Allmendinger finishing outside the top 20 this afternoon.

Dark Horse:

Daytona may be the Super Bowl of stock car racing, but for Josh Berry and the Wood Brothers, Martinsville might just be their own personal Super Bowl, with their race shop being based out of Stuart, Virginia, just a short, 30 minute drive from Martinsville Speedway. After posting four straight finishes outside the top 25, Berry finally stopped the bleeding last week with a solid 17th place finish at Darlington. A short track racing legend, Berry has had success at this track in everything he’s ever driven, including winning a late model race at the track in 2019 and an O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race in 2021. Berry hasn’t had as much success at the track in his Cup Series career, but he’s shown flashes of his potential, qualifying inside the top 15 three times in four starts, leading 40 laps last spring, and posting a 10th place finishing in the most recent race last fall. This weekend is shaping up to be one to remember for Berry and the Wood Brothers, laying down the 7th fastest lap of Practice and ranking inside the top six on 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 Lap Averages. Rolling out from P3 on the grid today, expect Berry to make some noise, lead some laps, and be in the hunt late in the going on the way to back-to-back top 10 Martinsville finishes and his first top 10 finish of the season.

Top 10:

After opening up the season with a third place finish in the Daytona 500, Joey Logano has struggled to parlay that into additional success, mustering just two top 15 finishes and two finishes of 30th or worse in five starts since then. Fortunately for him, Logano knows a thing or two about finding success at Martinsville, as he currently rides a streak of 13 consecutive top 10 finishes at the track. Logano has one win, 11 top 5’s, 22 top 10’s, 29 top 20’s, and 1,220 laps led in 34 starts at Martinsville, but let’s be real, we all only remember him for that one race he didn’t finish, right? Logano got off to a slow start in Practice, but he showed strong pace on the long run, ranking inside the top six on 20, 25, and 30 Lap Averages. Qualifying in ninth position, I have no doubt that Logano will work his way forward during the long green flag runs that Martinsville is so notorious for and lock down a 14th straight top 10 finish at the Paperclip.

Winner:

Did you really think I would take anybody else at this track? A man of great consistency, Ryan Blaney is off to a strong start to 2016, winning at Phoenix and posting a pair of top fives and four top 10’s to rank second in the Driver Standings after six races. In case you’ve been living under a rock for the last decade, Ryan Blaney is pretty damn good at Martinsville, posting two wins, 11 top 5’s, 13 top 10’s, 19 top 20’s, and 731 laps led in 20 career starts at the track. For a track that is hard to pass on, Blaney has seemingly done it with ease, qualifying 30th or worse in three of the last six races and only qualifying inside the top 10 twice in the last eight races. Regardless of starting spot, Blaney has been locked in at Martinsville, as he rides a streak of 14 straight top 11 finishes entering today, including a pair of victories and four top five finishes in the last five races at the Paperclip. So far, so good this weekend for Blaney, pacing the field on 20 Lap Averages in Practice while ranking inside the top three on 10, 15, 25, and 30 Lap Averages. Starting from 12th position this afternoon, I have no doubt that Ryan Blaney will exercise great patience and make his way forward over the course of a run. I’m taking Ryan Blaney to win his third grandfather clock at Martinsville and pick up his second victory on the season today!