2026 Goodyear 400 Predictions

The Cup Series drives on this afternoon as it returns to the iconic Darlington Raceway for the 2026 Goodyear 400. A consistent presence on the NASCAR schedule since the 1950’s, Darlington Raceway is a 1.366 mile egg-shaped oval featuring 25 degrees of banking in turns one and two, 23 degrees of banking in turns three and four, and six degrees of banking on both the frontstretch and backstretch.

Pit road strategy is pretty straight forward today: four, fresh Goodyear tires on every trip down pit road. With the way this track eats through tires, there is no justification for a two tire strategy. This track is an absolute menace on both the car and the driver. Drivers will need to manage their equipment, as well as their tempers, if they want to have a chance at victory late in the going. Darlington is one of the true driver’s racetracks on the schedule. Passing is difficult, tire management is difficult, and the fastest way around the track is about three inches off the wall. Abuse your tires early, and you’ll be sliding all over the track late in a run. The veterans who know how to manage their equipment will always have the advantage at a track like Darlington. Drivers need to try and find that perfect balance (if it even exists) between finding that fast pace and not damaging their car. One slip while running the high line and a driver’s day will quickly come to an end with a Darlington Stripe and a broken toe link to boot. But zoning in and ripping the boards can lead to drivers literally being a second or more faster each lap than some of their competitors (Exhibit A: Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick). Which driver will be able to survive 400 miles of grinding at Darlington Raceway to tame The Lady in Black?

The Goodyear 400 was first held in 1952 and has produced an incredible list of winners through the years. David Pearson has the most wins in this race, finding Victory Lane sevens times in his career. Dale Earnhardt Sr. captured the checkered flag five times, while Darrell Waltrip won this race four times. Dale Jarrett won the Goodyear 400 three times in his career, while Bill Elliott, Harry Gant, Denny Hamlin, Fred Lorenzen, Sterling Marlin, Richard Petty, Fireball Roberts, and Joe Weatherly are also multiple-time winners of this race.

Last year’s edition was won by Denny Hamlin, who took the lead late in the going and led 10 laps on the way to victory. Polesitter William Byron swept the Stages and led a race-high 243 laps on the way to a second place finish, Christopher Bell finished in third, Tyler Reddick led 42 laps on the way to a fourth place finish, and Ryan Blaney led two laps on the way to a top five performance.

Coverage of the Goodyear 400 can be seen on Fox Sports One, with pre-race starting at 1:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://www.nascar.com/videos/franchise/nascar-cup-series-highlights/josh-berry-suffers-hard-gateway-wreck-out-after-contact-with-elliott

It went so well for us last week that we’re running it back this week. Josh Berry is very much having the season from hell in 2026, posting three finishes of 30th or worse in his last four starts, including two DNFs, to sit 32nd in the Driver Standings after five races. Darlington has not been much kinder to Berry in his career. Outside of a third place finish in the spring race in 2024, Berry has finished 30th or worse in his other four starts at the track. Berry showed potential in Practice yesterday, laying down the 10th fastest lap of the session and showing great short run pace before qualifying in 26th position. Despite Berry’s pace this weekend, his on-track luck has been poor this season, and he is just too much of a liability to confidently back at a track that requires absolute precision. Expect Josh Berry to struggle today and finish outside the top 25 for the fifth straight race.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://amp.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nascar-auto-racing/article265339966.html

A two-time winner of the Southern 500, Erik Jones knows a thing or two about taming The Lady in Black, posting two wins, six top 5’s, nine top 10’s, and 12 top 20’s in 16 career starts at the track. Jones has already shown this weekend why you can never count him out at Darlington, laying down the fastest lap of Practice and showing top 10 pace on both short runs and long runs during the session. Jones ultimately qualified in 24th position, but frankly, that’s pretty standard for him at Darlington, as he has only started inside the top 10 twice at the track and has finished double digits higher than his starting position in five of his last seven starts at the track, including going from 34th to 17th and 19th to third in the two Darlington races last season. Jones is not a driver who runs at the front most weeks, as evidence by his four finishes of 20th or worse so far this season, but at certain tracks, he always manages to will himself into contention, with Darlington being the perfect example. An upset victory isn’t that far fetched, to be honest, but I have no doubt that Jones will work his way forward over the course of the race and lock down another top 12 finish at the Track Too Tough To Tame.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://www.motorsport.com/nascar-cup/news/frustration-and-disbelief-for-buescher-after-southern-500-at-darlington/10650469

Chris Buescher is one of the best grinders in the sport. He’s not super flashy, but he just grinds away all race long, continuing to get 110% out of his equipment each and every week while rarely making a big mistake. With a pair of top 10’s and four top 15 finishes to start the season, Buescher currently sits in ninth in the Driver Standings and will certainly be a dark horse to make a deep playoff run come the fall. Darlington is a track that has suited Buescher’s driving style well throughout his career, posting one top five, seven top 10’s, 12 top 20 finishes, and zero DNFs in 17 starts at the track, highlighted by three straight top 10 finishes and five top 10 finishes in his last six Darlington starts. It would have been six straight top 10 finishes, and possibly even a victory, had it not been for Tyler Reddick making a bold move that ultimately took both of them out of contention for the victory in the 2024 spring race. So far, Buescher is once again showing his persistence and grind, laying down the 19th fastest lap of Practice and flexing his muscles on the long run before qualifying in sixth position, his best qualifying effort of the campaign thus far. If we have some long green flag runs during the final stage, expect Buescher to be up front battling it out for the victory. Another top 10 finish for Buescher at Darlington seems like a safe bet this afternoon.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://www.racingamerica.com/news/nascar/starting-lineup-nascar-cup-series-goodyear-400-at-darlington-2

Was there ever any doubt? After kicking off the campaign with three straight victories, Tyler Reddick has “cooled off” the last two weeks, only mustering finishes of eighth at Phoenix and 13th at Las Vegas. Reddick has never won at Darlington, but damn, is he good here, posting five top 5’s, seven top 10’s, and 10 top 20’s and leading 322 laps in 13 career starts at the track. Posting three runner-ups and five top five finishes in the last eight Darlington races, it’s only a matter of time until Reddick finally visits Victory Lane at The Lady in Black, and with the the speed he’s shown so far this season, this weekend is shaping up to be that moment. Laying down the sixth fastest lap of Practice yesterday, Reddick showed great short run speed and paced the field on 20, 25, and 30 Lap Averages before beating teammate Bubba Wallace to lock down the Pole. Reddick has unfinished business in this race in particular, starting on the Pole and leading 174 laps in the spring race in 2024 before finishing 32nd after the dust up with Buescher mentioned above. It’s Tyler Reddick’s world, and we’re just living in it. I predict that Tyler Reddick will put on an absolute clinic this afternoon to pick up his fourth victory of the 2026 season and his first Cup Series victory at The Lady in Black!


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