2025 Mobil 1 301 Race Predictions

The Round of 12 begins with a bang in Loudon, New Hampshire, as the NASCAR Cup Series continues its march through the month of September. The mile-long intermediate comes on the heels of what was the most compelling Bristol race in quite a long time, where we witnessed a quiet, but starving, Christopher Bell take advantage of Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith on a green-white-checkered to end the night. The first four out delivered no September surprises- though we did witness what was likely the worst playoff performance in Cup Series playoff history by Josh Berry who, by all accounts, had an extremely respectable year for Wood Brothers Racing. Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen and Alex Bowman rounded out the eliminations from the Round of 16. 

Loudon is an American motorsports staple. The trophy is distinct- a lobster that often has a larger wingspan than the victor himself. It’s also one of very few races where the NASCAR Whelen Modified Series precedes the Cup Series on Saturday afternoon. Last year’s winner was Christopher Bell who, over the past few seasons, has put up more than respectable numbers in the Granite State. Joe Gibbs has dominated the playoffs so far this season, but Team Penske delivered a fortress of a qualifying effort, with hometown boy Joey Logano rolling off P1 and teammate Ryan Blaney in P2. Goodyear is also bringing a new (to Loudon) tire that should also bring some unpredictability to the grid. That said, let’s get to it. 

Driver to Fade:

Oops, we went there. Though he’s made it to the Round of 12, give us a reason that Chase Elliott has legitimate hope to comfortably advance past this round. He rolls off a measly P27 on Sunday afternoon at a track where his results have been mixed, at best. In the past four bouts here, he’s managed just one Top 10 finish. A mid-race crash at the Coliseum last weekend likely has the team on high alert, and Elliott is capable of striking at any second. But New Hampshire isn’t known for passing, and he’s got his work cut out for him. He’s gonna have to have a flawless three weeks.

Dark Horse:

On the other hand, this is a man who’s been on the up and up, especially after the Crown Jewel win two months ago at the Brickyard. Bubba Wallace starts P14- not impressive- Sunday afternoon, but he’s got a little cushion, and he’s been driving with confidence to start the playoffs. He, too, was involved in late race shenanigans last Saturday night in Bristol that ended a solid run, but all the momentum is on his side, especially given the manufacturer on his hood. Toyotas are rolling. So is he. Look out. 

Top 10:

Feels like this could be his year, doesn’t it? Denny Hamlin got off to a fast start in the playoffs with a win at Gateway and enters the Round of 12 in solid points position- he’s +26 above the cutline and sits atop the playoff leaderboard. Coupled with a P9 starting position, Loudon is a track that demands patience and tire management, strategy and experience. Denny has that more than anyone. Without an official announcement, it all but sounds like Denny is in the homestretch of his career- he’s signed a two-year contract to continue with JGR and when asked about it, he suggested that… this is it. He’s not letting up now. Look for him to continue business as usual today. 

Winner:

Not all is bad over at HMS. William Byron has little reason to believe he can’t wrangle up a championship this year. Fastest in practice yesterday and rolling of P5 Sunday afternoon, he’s got a lot of momentum heading into the Round of 12. Willy B has found himself in the NASCAR spotlight lately- he’s the primary cover boy on iRacing’s upcoming NASCAR 25 and is the highest seeded HMS driver in the playoffs at the moment. It seems like HMS has had an up-and-down year results wise across the board, but the 24 has remained consistent week in and week out, and we’re taking him to win the Mobil 1 301 on Sunday afternoon in Loudon, NH!