2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions

The Cup Series heats up tonight as it returns to Bristol Motor Speedway for the 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race. A 0.533-mile concert oval with 24-28 degrees of banking in the corners and 4-8 degrees of banking on the straights, Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the ultimate tests of man vs. machine, giving true meaning to the nickname The Last Great Colosseum. A staple on the NASCAR schedule since 1961, Bristol produces some of the most dramatic racing of the season, even more so as a cut off race in the Cup Series Playoffs. Following tonight’s race, the bottom four drivers in the Playoff Standings will be eliminated, with the remaining drivers moving on to the Round of 12, one step closer to a career-defining championship.

Equipment management is always the key to success on a short track, even more so at Bristol. The rough concrete will eat up tires, the high banking and rough track conditions can cause various equipment failures and short track racing always leads to beating and banging for position, which can greatly affect a car’s handling if you get damage in the wrong spot. Tires will be the variable tonight, as Goodyear brought a softer tire to the track this weekend that has shown minimal fall off over the course of a run. With cooler temperatures tonight, more fall off is possible, but expect passing to be at a premium and track position reigning supreme if the tire fall off doesn’t come into play. Regardless of fall off, drivers will want four fresh Goodyears at every possible opportunity due to the concrete. No strategy in that regard, unless something wild happens towards the end, of course. As always, the Gen 7 car “sucks” at passing on short tracks, depending on which tinfoil subscriber you get your news from. So, passing will require patience. Drivers will want to take advantage on pit road and restarts to make up lots of ground quickly. It might take 10, 20, even 30 laps to set up and fully execute a pass. Great speed can be found around the top, but the closer you get to the wall, the easier it is to slip up into the marbles and damage your car, if not ruin your entire race. Finding that right balance of speed vs. handling is what will truly separate the best from the rest tonight. Lastly, 500 laps is a long time, which often leads to a veteran presence on the leaderboard due to that type of driver just managing better all the way around. Getting aggressive too early, damaging your car and just letting your emotions get the best of you has led to the demise of many great cars and can lead to a very long night at this track. At the end of the day, it’s the Playoffs. What are you willing to do to ensure you have a great race or keep your championship hopes alive?

The Bass Pro Shops Night Race was first held in 1961 and has produced an incredible list of winners over the years. Darrell Waltrip has won this race the most times, finding victory lane seven times in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. Cale Yarborough won this race five times, while Dale Earnhardt Sr. took the checkered flag four times. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Rusty Wallace are all three-time winners of this race, while Bobby Allison, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Terry Labonte, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Fred Lorenzen, Mark Martin, David Pearson and Richard Petty each have a pair of victories in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Last year’s edition was won by Kyle Larson, who swept the stages and led a race-high 462 laps, the fourth most laps ever led by one driver in a Bristol race and the most Larson has ever led in a race in his career, on the way to a victory over his teammate, Chase Elliott. Bubba Wallace led one lap on the way to a third place finish, while Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell rounded out the top five. Polesitter Alex Bowman finished in ninth after leading 34 laps and Tyler Reddick finished in 20th after leading three laps.

Coverage of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race beginning at 7 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 7:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

#22: Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang

It’s the Cup Series Playoffs, which is where Joey Logano often brings his A-Game and has his best finishes of the season. The three-time Cup Series champion has had a respectable season defending his title from last year, winning at Texas Motor Speedway to go along with four top 5’s and eight top 10’s to sit +21 points above the cutline entering the final race in the Round of 16 tonight. Let’s get brutally honest now. Joey Logano is in big trouble tonight. A former Bristol Night Race winner (2014 and 2015), this track has become Logano’s bitter enemy of late. Logano has not logged a top five finish here since the spring race in 2019, has led just seven laps in his last nine starts here, has had nine straight finishes outside the top 10 here and has had five straight finishes outside the top 20 at Bristol. Logano looked like he was driving a cement block in Practice yesterday, logging the 31st fastest lap of Practice and showing minimal short and long run pace on the way to a 22nd place starting position. With both of his teammates starting in the top three tonight, and with all three Penske cars likely having some sort of shared setup, you can’t help but think that this is a driver issue, not a setup issue. 500 laps is a long time to get the ship righted out on the track, but I just don’t see Logano finding his mojo. Lock Joey Logano in for another finish outside the top 20 at Bristol, who will keep his fingers crossed that he built up enough of a points advantage to move onto the Round of 12.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://tobychristie.com/paint-scheme/no-54-joe-gibbs-racing-monster-energy-2/

2025 has not really been the season that Ty Gibbs was hoping for. In his third full-time campaign, Gibbs has regressed from 2024, posting four top 5’s and eight top 10’s to miss the Playoffs and sit in 19th position in the Driver Standings, which would be his worst career finish if he remains in this position through the end of the season. However, there are reasons to be hopeful for a huge night out of Ty Gibbs. He’s had good pace of late, posting top 10 finishes in two of his last three starts. Of his four top five finishes on the campaign, two of them have come on concrete race tracks, finishing 5th this summer at Dover and finishing 3rd at the spring race at Bristol. Bristol in general has been good to Ty Gibbs in his young career, posting a pair of top 5’s and three top 10 finishes in five career starts, including leading 102 laps during the Night Race in 2023 and sweeping the Stages and leading 137 laps in the spring race in 2024. Tonight could be another strong performance for Gibbs, who laid down the 9th fastest lap of Practice and consistently ranked inside the top 10 on 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Gibbs rolls out from the 4th position tonight and will undoubtedly be a threat all race long. With the right strategy, Gibbs may finally pick up his first career victory. but keeping expectations in check, Gibbs is a lock for a top 10 finish.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://www.teampenske.com/news/index.cfm/a/724/55042/Team_Penske_NASCAR_Cup_Series_Race_Report_-_Dover

The roller coaster that is Ryan Blaney has been another wild ride in 2025. A favorite each year to win the title, Blaney has shown time after time why he is one of the most thrilling drivers to follow in the sport, earning two Poles to go along with two wins (Nashville and Daytona summer race), 11 top 5’s, 15 top 10’s and an incredible seven DNFs. All of this adds up to Blaney slotting in 5th in the Driver Standings, 42 points above the cut line entering tonight. Bristol is very much the epitome of the Ryan Blaney experience, earning three top 5’s, seven top 10’s, 10 top 20’s and leading 555 laps in 17 careers starts at The Last Great Colosseum. His last six starts at Bristol? Three top six finishes and three finishes outside the top 15. Very much feast or famine. Blaney has had proven success here though, posting back-to-back top six finishes at the track, including leading 48 laps here in the spring and leading 40 or more laps in six different Bristol races. Blaney isn’t fucking around this weekend, either, logging the second fastest lap of Practice and pacing the field on 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Blaney starts on the front row tonight alongside A. J. Allmendinger and will absolutely take control of this race from the get go. The path to victory goes through Blaney tonight, who will lead some laps, pick up some more stage points and log another top 10 finish at Bristol.

Winner:

Like a fine wine, Denny Hamlin just keeps getting better with age. A few months shy of turning 45, Hamlin is having a career year on the track, logging three Poles, five wins, 12 top 5’s and 15 top 10’s as he leads the Driver Standings and is now just one victory away from career win #60. Hamlin has been absolutely masterful at Bristol in his career, with four wins, 13 top 5’s, 20 top 10’s, 28 top 20’s and 1,199 laps led in 36 starts. Hamlin has been locked in at Bristol of late, as he enters tonight having finished in the top five in each of his last four Bristol starts, including a pair of wins, finishing in the top 10 in each of his last six Bristol starts and leading 370 laps during that stretch. Hamlin has always been one of the best at managing his equipment and managing his tires on concrete tracks, as evidenced by his win at Dover, his runner-up performance at the Bristol spring race and his third place finish at Nashville this season. Already locked into the Round of 12 thanks to his victory last week at World Wide Technology Raceway, Hamlin enters this week with less pressure than many of his peers and in some ways, that gives him a clear advantage at one of his best tracks. Hamlin logged the 7th fastest lap of Practice yesterday, but didn’t show the strongest of pace as the run went on, ranking outside the top 10 in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Hamlin will roll out from 6th position tonight and like usual, will take advantage of his track position and continue to improve his car all race long. One of the most polarizing figures in the sport today, Hamlin is firing on all cylinders as he looks to capture that long-awaited championship, and will take another step closer to that tonight as he “beats your favorite driver” on the way to a victory for the second straight week, his sixth victory of the season, a fifth career Bristol victory and the 60th victory of his career!


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