The PGA Tour contests its third major of the season as it returns to the historic Oakmont Country Club for the 2025 U. S. Open. The only course designed by Henry Fownes, Oakmont opened in 1903 and will host the U. S. Open for a record tenth time this week. This year’s edition will play as a brutal Par 70, 7,372 yard layout.
Players will be gearing up for arguably their hardest test of the season. Oakmont is no slouch. Lightning fast greens with plenty of twists and turns, tight fairways, over 150 bunkers and some of thickest rough imaginable. Frankly, even par at the end of the week stands a pretty great chance of having a chance to win, with the best winning score of any U. S. Open at Oakmont is -5. Long ball hitters still reign supreme in this event, even with challenging terrain for this who stray off the fairway, with each of the last nine winners of this event ranking inside the top 15 in Driving Distance, per JustinRayGolf on X. But if a player is not sharp with their irons, a big number can quickly creep into play, with one bad score leading to multiple bad scores. The short game specialists will easily rise up the leaderboard in these situations. Give the edge to the elite iron players as well. Given the size and speed of the greens this week, three-putts and four putts can also quickly derail a player’s score. So give an edge to the great grinders who have a great touch on the green. Just staying calm and in the moment can go a long way to staying in the hunt, especially as the pressure ramps up come Sunday afternoon. Lastly, with weather conditions expected to go downhill as the week goes on, and with rain on the radar, this course will truly play its length, and the rough will play even more difficult, as if that is even possible. Birdies will truly be few and far between, and par will be a great score on a lot of holes. Just taking what the course gives you, staying patient and not getting aggressive at inopportune moments is truly what separates the best from the rest. Give the edge to the player who isn’t phased by difficult conditions, ever changing weather patterns and the chance of trouble lurking with every shot. For many years, an even par total of 280 was often the standard and good enough to win any U. S. Open. With the conditions in store this week, we very well may be in store for an old school performance following that historic standard.
The U. S. Open is the second oldest of the four majors, with the first edition taking place in 1895. Truly the best of the best are teeing it up this week, including studs like Ludvig Åberg, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, as well as rising stars like Akshay Bhatia, Tom Kim, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Pendrith, Aaron Rai and Cameron Young, just to name a few.
Four players have each won the U. S. Open four times in their career: Willie Anderson, Ben Hogan, Bobby Jones and Jack Nicklaus, while Hale Irwin and Tiger Woods are each three time winners of this tournament. Other multi-time winners include Julius Boros, Billy Casper, Bryson DeChambeau, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Ralph Gudahl, Walter Hagen, Lee Janzen, Brooks Koepka, John McDermott, Cary Middlecoff, Andy North, Gene Sarazen, Alex Smith, Payne Stewart, Curtis Strange and Lee Trevino.
Last year’s edition was won by Bryson DeChambeau, who got up and down from a bunker on the final hole to hold off Rory McIlroy by a single stroke. Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau finished T-3, two strokes off the pace, while Matthieu Pavon rounded out the top five, three strokes back.
It is truly the end of an era. Barring some late career heroics, some better future play or receiving an exemption directly from the USGA, this will likely be Phil Mickelson’s final start in the U. S. Open, the lone major he still needs to win to complete the career Grand Slam. As we all know, Mickelson and the U. S. Open go hand in hand, synonymous with heartbreak, as Mickelson has finished runner-up in this event six times in 33 career starts, taking home the bridesmaid position in 1999, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2013. Despite making the jump to LIV, Mickelson has shown this season that he still has game, posting a trio of top six finishes in seven start in the upstart league, including a sparkling T-4 finish last week, where Mickelson once again flashed his short game mastery. Despite the recent resurgence, Mickelson has struggled in the events that matter most: the majors. Since coming out of nowhere to win the PGA Championship in 2021 to become the oldest major winner at just a few days shy of 51 years old, Mickelson has missed the cut in 10 of his 14 major starts since, with a T-2 finish at the 2023 Masters Tournament being his only top 40 finish. Mickelson has missed the cut in both major starts this season, hasn’t made the cut at the U. S. Open since posting a T-52 finish at Pebble Beach in 2019 and has finished 47-MC-MC in his three other U. S. Open appearances at Oakmont. As much as I would love to see a storybook ending, and as nerve wracking as it is to ever count Phil Mickelson out of any event, I predict he will potentially end his U. S. Open career this week with another missed cut.
It’s hard to justify the 17th ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking being a dark horse, but that’s exactly what Harris English has been for the majority of his PGA Tour career. A mainstay in the big leagues for nearly 15 years now, English is a five-time winner on tour, finding the Winner’s Circle most recently at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, another beastly course, to go along with a pair of top 10’s and seven top 25’s in 14 starts this season. English ranks in the upper half on tour in ball striking, but still a few pegs below the Schefflers and McIlroys of the world, ranking inside the top 100 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Approach the Green, as well as Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation Percentage. So where does English stand out? On the greens, ranking 19th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 18th in 3-Putt Avoidance and 40th in Bogey Avoidance. More importantly, English has low key been a stud in the U. S. Open of late, finishing 4th in 2020, 3rd in 2021 and T-8 in 2023, not to mention finishing T-12 at the Masters and a career-best major finish of T-2 at the PGA Championship earlier this year and posting top 25 finishes in nine of his last 18 major appearances. Lastly, English has incredibly never missed the cut in this event, making the weekend in all nine of his previous starts, including a T-37 finish in his lone trip to Oakmont in 2016. A win isn’t that far fetched given his recent form, but lock in English for another top 25 major finish this week.
The pride of Listowel, Canada, and a proud Kent State alum, Corey Conners has had a solid season so far in 2025, posting five top 10’s and 10 top 25’s in 15 starts, good enough to slot in 9th in the FedEx Cup Standings. Conners has been absolutely cooking in the bigger tournaments this season, posting top 10’s in The Sentry, the Arnold Palmer Invitational by Mastercard, THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters Tournament, as well as a top 20 finish at the PGA Championship. Conners is a great ball striker, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 24th in Tee-to-Green, as well as ranking inside the top 15 in both Driving Accuracy Percentage (8th) and Greens in Regulation Percentage (13th). Conners definitely fits the mold of an elite ball striker, which is a great edge to have in one of the season’s most difficult tournaments. Conners is so-so with his short game, ranking 66th in Scrambling and 74th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season, although it is worth noting he ranks 9th in Scrambling from the Rough, which will be quite important this week. Conners is very much a boom or bust this week, as his T-9 finish in last year’s U. S. Open is his only made cut in this tournament in six career starts. In spite of it all, I believe greatly in Conners and his ball striking ability and predict that he will finish in the top 10 in this event for the second consecutive season.
The defending U. S. Open champion, Bryson DeChambeau has put on a masterclass in good play on LIV in 2025, posting one win, four top 5’s and six top 10’s in eight starts. Plus, Dechambeau has also been locked in at the majors this season, finishing T-5 at the Masters Tournament and T-2 at the PGA Championship. Contain your snide comments. Despite taking the money that LIV offered him (oh, the humanity), DeChambeau has proven that he still has the game to contend, even on the most difficult of courses. DeChambeau is one of the great long ball hitters, but he also has a light touch around the green, ranking 1st in both Driving Distance and Scrambling this season on LIV. DeChambeau doesn’t quality for PGA Tour metrics due to lack of rounds posted, but based on his limited starts, he is right up there with the Schefflers and the McIlroys, ranking inside the top five in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Putting, as well as in Driving Distance. DeChambeau is a two-time U. S. Open champion, winning this event in 2020 at Winged Foot and last season at Pinehurst No. 2, two of the most difficult courses in the open rotation. The harder the course, the bigger the stage, DeChambeau seemingly gets stronger and stronger, finishing in the top six in six of his last nine major starts. Talk about an absolute heater. It’s tough to defend a title in this tournament, as Willie Anderson in 1903, 1904 and 1905, John McDermott in 1911-1912, Booby Jones in 1929-1930, Ralph Gudahl in 1937-1938, Ben Hogan in 1950-1951 (technically, Hogan won three straight if you count 1948’s victory since he missed 1949 due to injury), Curtis Strange in 1988-1989 and Brooks Koepka in 2017-2018 are the only seven golfers to successfully defend their victory in this event. Our preseason winning prediction for this event, I predict that Bryson DeChambeau will become the eight golfer to successfully defend his title by winning the 2025 United States Open.
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