The Cup Series rolls on today with the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. The lone two-mile oval on the Cup Series schedule this season, Michigan International Speedway features 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 12 degrees of banking on the frontstretch and five degrees of banking on the backstretch, testing the patience of every driver since its very first Cup Series race in 1969. This race has traditionally served as a 400 mile victory lap for Ford, winning this race 24 times through the years, including 13 of the last 25 and a best of six straight from 2018-2023 (Kevin Harvick in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022, Ryan Blaney in 2021 and Chris Buescher in 2023). Toyota put an end to their streak last season, but can they or Chevrolet keep Ford out of Victory Lane for a second straight year, all the while doing it a mere 65 miles from Ford’s world headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan?
This race is all about patience. Michigan has always served as a difficult passing track, even more so in this Gen 7 car. With this track serving as a mini-superspeedway with its high speeds and use of drafting, it can often be difficult to complete a pass unless the car that drivers are trying to pass has an issue or unless they have some help from behind from another driver. If a driver pulls out of line with a full head of steam and fails to complete the pass, they can quickly lose four or five spots in the blink of an eye. The preferred lane is around the top, but passes can be made around the bottom in the right circumstances. Passing does happen at this track, despite what the critics may say, but it simply requires the right timing and patience. Track position is king, but drivers will still want four, fresh Goodyear tires any chance they get. As we saw in the Craftsman Truck Series race yesterday, two tires or no tires can hold on for a short time, especially if a lot of drivers use the same strategy. But four tires is always better than two, especially on long runs. Lastly, drivers just need to roll with the punches. A race like this can often lead to single file, “follow the leader” type racing, with long, green flag runs and minimal cautions. On the flip side, one caution can lead to more cautions and plenty of carnage, as we saw in yesterday’s race, as well. Drivers will need to adapt accordingly and go from pedestrian mode to full send mode, if necessary. The drivers best equipped with this mindset will undoubtedly be the ones to beat this afternoon.
Kevin Harvick and David Pearson share the record for most victories in this race, with each of them finding Victory Lane five times. Bill Elliott, Dale Jarrett, Mark Martin and Richard Petty each have a trio of wins in this race, while Bobby Allison, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Bobby Labonte, Kyle Larson, Rusty Wallace, Darrell Waltrip and Cale Yarborough are also multi-time winners of this race.
Last year’s edition was won by Tyler Reddick, who led 15 laps on the day and took the lead for good in a double overtime shoutout to bring home the victory. William Byron led 20 laps on the way to a runner-up finish, Ty Gibbs led two laps on the way to a third place finish, Kyle Busch finished fourth after leading 24 laps and Brad Keselowski finished in fifth after leading two laps on the day. Daniel Suarez finished eighth after leading seven laps, Carson Hocevar led three laps on the way to a 10th place finish, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished in 13th after leading two laps, Harrison Burton led five laps on the way to a 14th place finish, Chase Elliott led 29 laps on the way to a 15th place finish, Ryan Blaney finished in 18th after leading for 15 laps, Josh Berry led four laps on the way to a 22nd place finish, Martin Truex Jr. finished 24th in his final Michigan start after leading 28 laps on the day, Ross Chastain finished 25th after leading four laps, Bubba Wallace led five laps on the way to a 26th place finish and Kyle Larson led a race-high 41 laps before getting caught up in an accident and finishing in 34th place.
Coverage of the FireKeepers Casino 400 can be seen on Amazon Prime, with pre-race coverage beginning at 1:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.
2025 has been a great year for Christopher Bell, posting three wins, six top 5’s and 10 top 10’s through 14 races. Given the speed Bell has week in and week out, it seems almost asinine to fade him anywhere. However, Michigan has proven to be a thorn in Bell’s side in his Cup Series career. In six starts, Bell has never finished in the top 10 at this track. His best finish? Lucky 13th, finishing in this position in 2020, 2021 and 2023. He’s had plenty of speed, though, starting on the Pole once, the front row twice, in the top five three times and in the top 10 four times. However, he’s only led 35 laps here in his career, has not earned stage points in either of the last two races and has gotten caught up in accidents in a third of his races here. For whatever reason, this track is simply a bad one for Bell. The enigma continues this weekend, as Bell posted the second fastest lap of Practice, but qualified in 25th for today’s race. Bell will likely work his way forward today, but I predict that he will once again finish outside the top 10 in Michigan.
Despite all of the hype in the Xfinity Series, Ty Gibbs is still looking to make his presence known in his third, full-time season in the Cup Series. 2025 is shaping up to be the worst season yet for Gibbs (contain those smirks), who has earned just one top five, two top 10’s and has posted an average finish of 21.57 on the way to a 27th place position in the Point Standings, which is 55 points below the cutline to make the Playoffs. You must certainly be asking, where’s the silver lining? Incredibly, Gibbs has a decent track record in Michigan, finishing in the top 11 in all three starts at this track, leading laps in all three of those races and finishing third in this race last season. Gibbs also had success in this track in the Xfinity Series, winning here in 2022 and finishing fourth in 2023. This weekend is shaping up to potentially being a season-changing one for Gibbs, who had an absolute rocket during Practice, leading the way on 10, 15, 20 and 25 Lap Averages. Gibbs rolls out from the eighth position today, and will absolutely be a threat for the win. Will Ty Gibbs win today? Time will tell, but with his pace, I have no doubt that he will lock down his third top 10 finish of the season this afternoon.
Chris Buescher is lurking, just waiting to have his break out this season. Buescher has posted one top five and six top 10’s on the year and is trending the right way after having his penalty from Kansas reduced by 30 points. All he needs now is a win to truly get the party started. Currently sitting 14th in the Point Standings, Buescher returns to what has been one of his best tracks of late in Michigan, finishing 6th in this race last season and winning it in 2023. This weekend is shaping up to be yet another successful weekend for Buescher in the Irish Hills of Michigan, logging the third fastest lap of Practice, showing solid pace on 5 and 10 Lap Averages and ultimately qualifying in 6th position for today’s race. Buescher is a former winner at this track and has a fast hot rod so far this weekend, which in my book, means he will have another successful race today. Expect Buescher to run up front all race long on his way to a third straight top 10 finish in this race.
Every sport needs a villain, and frankly, nobody does it better in NASCAR than Denny Hamlin. At 44 years old, Hamlin has shown no signs of slowing down, posting two wins, six top 5’s and seven top 10’s on the campaign, good enough to slot in fourth in the Point Standings. Hamlin has had many great times racing in Michigan, posting a pair of wins, 12 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s and 28 top 20’s in 34 career starts at the track. Speed or no speed, Hamlin has continued to be one of the ones to beat at Michigan, posting seven straight top 10 finishes at the track, 10 straight top 12 finishes and leading laps in eight of those 10 starts. Despite all the successes, Hamlin last found Victory Lane at Michigan in 2011, 14 years ago. Hamlin may still be on baby watch (When is she ever gonna shoot out this kid???) and his owned-23XI Racing team may have experienced a set back in their Anti-Trust lawsuit against NASCAR, but don’t let that fool you. Hamlin came to play this weekend. Hamlin posted the eighth fastest lap of Practice, had top six pace on both 5 and 10 Lap Averages and qualified in third position for today’s race. This is the fifth time Hamlin has qualified in the top five for a race this season. His other four results? Wins at Martinsville and Darlington, second place at Bristol and third place at Nashville. Not too shabby. Denny Hamlin ended a decade long winless streak at one of his other best tracks, Martinsville, earlier this season, and I predict he’s going to end an even longer winless streak this afternoon with a return to Victory Lane at Michigan in the FireKeepers Casino 400!
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