2025 Cook Out 400 Predictions

The Cup Series continues on this afternoon with the 2025 Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway. A track that is older than the sport of NASCAR itself, Martinsville Speedway is the only track to be on the NASCAR schedule each and every year from the start. Martinsville may be the shortest track on the schedule at 0.526 miles, but it still packs a powerful punch that truly tests the best of the sport.

There is a fine line between short track racing and demolition derby. The Cup Series, for the most part, seems to keep things relatively tame (unless you’re Austin Dillon) compared to the Xfinity Series and Craftsman Truck Series, both have which have produced several controversial finishes of late at the Half Mile of Mayhem. Per usual, the first key to success this afternoon is patience. With cars running near identical speeds all the way back through the field, passing is difficult. It takes multiple laps at times to get the right run and move to the inside of the car you’re pursuing. 400 laps is a long-time, but eventually, patience will run thin and the chrome horn will be used. Track position always trumps all, but your race can quickly go off the rails if you get shuffled back in traffic, or get penalized and have to try and work your way back through the field. Drivers who stay the most patient are traditionally rewarded in a race like this. In line with patience, managing your equipment is also key. Some of the cars in yesterday’s Xfinity Series race and trucks in Friday’s Craftsman Truck Series race look like they had been in an absolute war. A car with great handling and good aero is so important to gaining an edge on short tracks, and getting squirrelly early will only hinder your abilities as the race drives on. At the end of the day, it’s a fine line between speed and handling. As qualfying showed us, several cars have raw speed, but average handling, while other cars take off poorly, but have great handling and improved speed as the run goes on. Martinsville traditionally produces long runs, so managing your tires and not using them up early will truly separate the best from the rest. Expect plenty of comers and goers early on if the race stays green, but throw everything out the window if there are many cautions late in the running, like both of the other races this weekend. With close, side-by-side racing, lots of beating and banging and plenty of hurt feelings, Martinsville always produces some of the most competitive racing of season.

The Cook Out 400 has been a staple on the NASCAR schedule since 1950, with the list of winners reading like a true Hall of Fame roll call. Richard Petty has won this race the most, finding victory lane nine times in his career. Rusty Wallace and Darrell Waltrip are both close behind, each of them winning the coveted grandfather clock five times in their career. Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson and Cale Yarborough are all three-time winners of this race, while Buck Baker, Geoffrey Bodine, William Byron, Harry Gant, Brad Keselowski, Fred Lorenzen, Mark Martin, Jim Paschal, Lee Petty, Martin Truex Jr. and Curtis Turner are all multiple-time winners of this race.

Last year’s race was won by William Byron, who started in 18th place and worked his way forward to lead 88 laps and take home the victory during Hendrick Motorsports’ 40th anniversary season. Byron’s HMS teammates, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, finished second and third, respectively, with Larson leading 86 laps on the day and winning Stage 1 and Elliott leading 64 laps. Bubba Wallace finished in fourth, while Ryan Blaney rounded out the top five. Joey Logano finished in sixth after leading 84 laps, Chase Briscoe finished in 10th after leading eight laps, Denny Hamlin finished in 11th after leading 66 laps and winning Stage 2, Daniel Suarez finished in 22nd after leading 13 laps and Austin Cindric finished in 23rd after leading six laps.

Coverage of the Cook Out 400 can be seen on Fox Sports 1, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 1:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

2025 has been a mixed bag for Tyler Reddick, as he has earned a pair of top 5’s, three top 10’s and three finishes of 19th or worse through the first six races. Unfortunately for Reddick, Martinsville is arguably his worst track on the schedule, posting just two top 10 finishes in 10 starts at The Paperclip, including six finishes of 18th or worse in his last seven trips to the track. This weekend has looked to be mostly more of the same struggle for Reddick, as he posted the 23rd fastest lap of Practice and ranked consistently in the back half of the field on both short and long run speed. Surprisingly, Reddick rolls out from ninth today, but that will be his lone highlight his afternoon. Expect more struggles for Reddick and for him to slide back through the field on his way to another finish outside the top 15, both on the season and at Martinsville.

Dark Horse:

One of NASCAR’s favorite dark horses (Please don’t cancel us. For legal reasons, that was a joke.), Bubba Wallace has been feast or famine in 2025, posting one top five, two top 10’s and four finishes of 20th or worse. Unlike his teammate at 23XI Racing, Tyler Reddick, Wallace has found decent success at Martinsville lately, earning one top five and three top 10’s in his last six starts at the track, including a best finish of fourth last spring, where he started second and finished runner-up in both stages. Wallace has once again gotten off to a great Martinsville start this weekend, posting the fastest lap of Practice, pacing the field on 5 and 10 Lap Averages and showing great short and long run speed across the board. Wallace starts from the eighth position today, and frankly, Wallace has race winning pace in that car. Given the heavy hitters in front of him though, we predict that Wallace will bring home another top 10 showing.

Top 10:

Like him or not, Denny Hamlin is one of the best to ever do it at Martinsville, earning five wins, 20 top 5’s, 26 top 10’s, 31 top 20’s and 2,448 laps led in 38 career starts. His last 10 starts at the track have been more varied though, earning five top 5’s and five finishes outside the top 10, not to mention his last win here came in this very race in 2015. But, like clockwork (See what I did there?), Hamlin is once again showing why he is such a threat on short tracks, posting the third fastest lap of Practice and consistently ranking inside the top 10 on both short and long run speed. Like seemingly everyone else this season, Hamlin has had an up-and-down 2025, posting a pair of top 5’s, three top 10’s and four finishes of 20th or worse. Hamlin has not put together two straight quality starts this season, but that changes today. Hamlin starts the race from inside the top five and will be a threat to win all race long. Give me Denny Hamlin for another Martinsville top 10 and a second straight top 10 finish on the season.

Winner:

He may not be the flashiest driver on the track, but Chase Elliott puts together consistent performances, logging one top five, three top 10’s and no finishes outside the top 20 this season. Martinsville is a track that fits into that same mindset. In 19 Martinsville starts, Elliott has posted one win, seven top 5’s, 12 top 10’s, 16 top 20’s and 1,233 laps led. Lately, Elliott has been right there lurking, finishing third here last spring after leading 64 laps and finishing runner-up last fall after winning a stage and leading 139 laps on the day. Elliott has been solid so far this weekend, laying down the 10th fastest lap of Practice and luring around the back half of the top 10 on short and long run speed. Elliott’s car may not be perfect to start, but he’ll have track position early, thanks to a front row qualifying effort. It’s been almost a year since the #9 car last found victory, but its time to sound the siren in Dawsonville, as I predict that Chase Elliott will find victory lane for the first time in 2025 and take home his second grandfather clock with a victory at Martinsville!