2025 NASCAR Cup Series Predictions

Drivers, start your engines! The 2025 NASCAR season is now upon us. There is no shortage of storylines as we embark on the drive to another championship. From the charter controversy to new teams, from new faces in new places to old faces staying where they are, to rising stars to cagey veterans to everything in between, there is plenty to unpack. So, grab a seat, put on your favorite driver’s swag and crack open a cold one as we delve into all of the action for this upcoming season.

Charter Lawsuit: What Happens Now?

In October 2024, 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports filed a lawsuit against NASCAR and its Chairman, Jim France, claiming they violated anti-trust laws with the new Charter Agreement that was signed by all of the other Cup Series teams. At the heart of the matter, both teams disagree with the new Charter Agreement, believing that the way that revenue is distributed to teams is unfair and that NASCAR has a monopoly in place due to NASCAR owning the series, owning many of the tracks drivers race at and allowing teams to buy their car parts from NASCAR-approved suppliers only, as well as drivers not being able to race in other non-NASCAR related series without NASCAR’s approval.

At the time of the lawsuit, both teams were in the process of purchasing a charter from the now-defunct Stewart-Haas Racing. Once the lawsuit took center stage, NASCAR attempted to block the sale/purchase of those charters. Both teams appealed to the U. S. District Court, which overruled NASCAR, saying that NASCAR must approve the charter sale to Front Row Motorsports, while 23XI Racing must ask the court to have its charter purchase approved by NASCAR.

To race in NASCAR, teams must sign the Charter Agreement to lock their spot in place. 23XI and Front Row would not be allowed to have a guaranteed spot if they didn’t sign the agreement, but the court ruled that NASCAR must let them race using their charters while the case continues to make its way through the courts. NASCAR’s most recent motion to dismiss the case was denied by the U. S. District Court in January. At this point in time, a jury trial has been tentatively set for December 1, 2025, to determine if NASCAR has violated any anti-trust laws.

So, what happens now? 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports will be able to continue to race by utilizing their charters while the lawsuit remains underway. As the discovery process continues leading up to trial, both of the teams and NASCAR organization will be required to turn over financial information and any other pertinent documentation that is tangent to the case. Drivers, owners and higher-ups within NASCAR may be deposed. Maybe the two teams or NASCAR decides to settle out of court to avoid the lengthy legal battle and to avoid going to trial. I’m not a lawyer, but I do work for them. I don’t know how this is going to shake out, but the sooner it gets settled, the better, for NASCAR. Lawsuits aren’t great for billion-dollar organizations. For a sport like NASCAR, it divides the sport, among fans, among teams and among management. NASCAR has traditionally kept their processes pretty hush hush, so if anything shady is going on, they won’t want that to be revealed. If this lawsuit makes it to trial, either party could get burnt at the end of the day, but a lawsuit favoring the teams could really set back the NASCAR organization.

For the fans, can you blame 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports? They are putting their teams on the track and no matter what kind of product they put out there, they aren’t making much of a profit, if any at all. Many teams are struggling financially, from the alphas to the underdogs, and it’s been like that for many years. Why should a team go out and race for a company that consistently allows them to lose money and makes no effort to support the teams that are keeping the sport alive? Maybe you’ll blow bag about teams being greedy, but would you work somewhere where you can’t afford to pay your own bills? Teams want their fair share and believe that NASCAR is limiting them from making money, as well growing the sport outside of NASCAR. I will truly be surprised if this lawsuit reaches trial, but this Charter Agreement is not the answer. Teams have been losing money for years and nothing is changing. The charter system is clearly broken, but is there a practical solution? Ideally, remove the charters and let the 40 fastest cars make the show because let’s be real, other than Daytona, rarely do more than 40 cars show up each week. Find a new way to distribute money amongst teams. I’m not sure what that looks like because that is above my pay grade. But for the sake of the teams, the sake of the fan base and, most importantly, the sake of the sport as a whole, this needs to be figured out and implemented quickly. It’s great to grow the sport, but not at the expense of the teams within the sport.

New Broadcast Schedule = Angry Boomer Noises

The NASCAR tv schedule has changed for the 2025 season, as several new partners have joined the fold. I’m going to break it down for you so that even ignorant trolls can understand it. For the Craftsman Truck Series, all of the races will be on FOX or on FS1. For the Xfinity Series, all of the races will be on the CW. Things get a little hairy for the Cup Series, but it is surprisingly pretty straight forward if you get your head out of your ass. The first 12 races will be held on either FOX or FS1. The next five races will be on Amazon Prime. The five after that? Those will air on TNT Sports. The final 14 races will air on either the USA Network or on NBC. Practice and qualifying for all FOX/FS1/Amazon Prime races will air on Amazon Prime unless otherwise specified, while practice and qualifying for races on TNT/USA/NBC will all air on TNT Sports unless otherwise specified. See, that wasn’t so hard now (That’s what she said), now was it?

I’m here for the, but why can’t all of the races be on the same channel at the same time every single week? Because that only makes sense in your close-minded head, DARF. The channels and times are already set in stone. It’s not like the schedule is changing at the last moment every single week. You’ve had plenty of time to figure out the schedule. If you can’t understand it by now, heaven help you. I’m also here for the I can’t afford an Amazon Prime subscription/I’m a fossil who can’t figure out how technology works excuses. I’ve said this multiple times, but I will sadly reiterate it again. Any purchase on Amazon comes with a free 30-day subscription to Amazon Prime. With only five races being held on there, you could set up your account for free and watch four of the five races at no cost! Amazon prime costs just $14.99 a month. If you can’t afford to shell it out for two months of races, perhaps you have bigger issues at hand.

Finally, a certain portion of the “fan base” thinks streaming is pointless and that NASCAR will, in fact, lose viewers by doing this. WRONG!!! More people have an Amazon Prime account than have traditional cable. Over 200 million people have an Amazon Prime account, with over 75% of those accounts being based in the United Stares, while only 58 million people still have basic cable in the United States. NASCAR is still keen on growing the sport and getting it in front of four times as many people than usual seems like a great way to do so.

With all of these new networks being brought into the fold, what will the broadcasting side look like? Who is going to be on the call for all of the races? Strap in and read on, as the list is lengthy.

Over at FOX, Mike Joy will handle play-by-play capabilities while once again being flanked by analysts Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick. Larry McReynolds will once again step up to the plate as America’s crew chief, while pit reporting duties will be handled by Jamie Little, Josh Sims and Regan Smith. Chris Myers will continue to host pre-race coverage alongside Jamie McMurray, with Michael Waltrip rounding out the team with his iconic pit walk coverage.

Amazon Prime and TNT Sports will share their broadcasters over their 10 race stretch of the schedule. Adam Alexander will take the lead on play-by-play coverage, while Steve Letarte and Dale Earnhardt Jr. will serve as analysts. Corey LaJoie will also join the team as a race analyst during the Amazon Prime portion of the schedule only, serving alongside fellow analyst Danielle Trotta. Pit Reporters will be announced at a future date.

Over at NBC, Leigh Diffey (Insert angry noises by DARFs who hate accents) will once again assume the play-by-play role, with assistance from analysts Jeff Burton and Steve Letarte as analysts. Dave Burns, Kim Coon, Parker Kligerman, Marty Snider and Dillon Welch are all expected to remain as pit reporters at this time, while Snider, Brad Dougherty, Dale Jarrett and Kyle Pete will remain on for pre-race and post-race coverage.

The CW will be the exclusive broadcast partner for the Xfinity Series in 2025. Adam Alexander will handle the play-by-play duties, with Jamie McMurray and Parker Kligerman serving as analysts. Kim Coon and Dillon Welch will serve as pit reporters, while Carla Gebhart will handle pre-race coverage.

FOX will also handle Craftsman Truck Series and ARCA Menards Series broadcasting coverage throughout the season. Jamie Little will handle play-by-play coverage for both series, with a rotating group of drivers and broadcasters serving as analysts for the Craftsman Truck Series. Amanda Busick, Josh Sims and Regan Smith will handle pit reporting duties in the Craftsman Truck Series. For ARCA, Trevor Bayne and Phil Parsons will serve as analysts, while Busick will handle pit reporting duties along with Kaitlyn Vincie.

In spite of what you may proclaim, no, NASCAR is not dying. In fact, it continues to grow. Billion-dollar networks have seen the value the sport has and realize that they want to get in while the going is good. All I can say is find yourself a schedule and refer to it throughout the year like a normal person would do. Different networks can be great and bring interesting and enlightening coverage to the forefront compared to other networks. Variety is good, and hopefully the content will continue to improve each and every year.

Can Ford go Four for Four in 2025:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Ford comes out of the gate hot with lots of speed at Daytona and Atlanta, struggles with finding consistent results up into the summer months, starts firing off wins and consistent finishes to close out the regular season and then goes into cutthroat mode during the playoffs to win the championship. This has roughly been the story arc for Ford the last three years, winning the Driver’s Championship each of the last three seasons, with Joey Logano winning the title in both 2022 and 2024, while his Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney took the title in 2023 and finished runner-up last season. Might as well rename Ford as FOCD (First On Championship Day).

Regardless, Ford is looking to win a fourth straight Driver’s Championship, something it has never done throughout its time in NASCAR. Can it be done? At this point, absolutely. With Logano and Blaney guaranteed to be in the title hunt, as well as playoff dark horses Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher at Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, a fourth straight title is definitely within reach. Is Ford going to go dominate every week? Probably not. But when the pressure is on and the season is on the line, Ford and its drivers step up and close the deal. It doesn’t matter how dominant you are early on in the season. You have to get hot at the right time during the playoffs and Ford seems to have figured that out over the past couple of seasons. They obviously can’t keep this streak going forever. Chevrolet last won a Driver’s Championship in 2021, while Toyota last sealed the deal in 2019. Both are hungry and chomping at the bit to add to their hardware. Ford is most definitely a Ford-midable (I think I’m hilarious) opponent in the battle for another title, but this is something to keep in mind coming down the stretch in the playoffs this fall. Keep reading on to see our 2025 Cup Series champion prediction and if we think Ford can close the deal once again.

New Drivers, New Teams and Old Faces in New Places:

The Cup Series is a revolving door each and every season, with drivers rising and falling through the ranks, drivers moving to new teams and occasionally, new teams forming and old teams shutting down. Below are the key shakers and movers during this past silly season and a small look at what this new season will look like:

JTG Dougherty Raving underwent a name change. This season, it will now be known as HYAK Motorsports, with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. still piloting the #47 Chevrolet for the organization for a sixth straight season.

Stewart-Haas Racing shut down after 23 seasons and 103 wins across the Cup, Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series, as well as the ARCA Menards Series and the ARCA Menards Series West. A four-car organization shutting down is big news and sent shock waves across the sport, not to mention several drivers and hundreds of crew members and staff looking for new employment. So, where did the four charters go? More importantly, what happened to the four drivers: Josh Berry, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson and Ryan Preece?

One charter is staying with Gene Haas, who is starting his own, brand-new NASCAR team called Haas Factory team. The Cup Series team will be a one-car team and run Fords like its predecessor at SHR. With an alliance with fellow Ford organization Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Haas Factory Team will feature the #41 car driven by former SHR driver Cole Custer.

The remaining three cheaters have been sold to other teams. The first of these charters was sold to Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, who has tabbed former SHR driver Ryan Preece to drive their new #60 entry. Partnering with crew chief Derrick Finley, Preece’s ride will display partnership from Kroger, Castrol and Mohawk Northeast, among other sponsors, as Preece gears up for the biggest opportunity of his career.

The second of these three charters has gone to Front Row Motorsports, which will have former SHR and Legacy Motor Club wheelman Noah Gragson behind the wheel of the #4 Ford Mustang during the 2025 season. Like RFK, Front Row expands to a three-car organization with the addition of Gragson, who will partner up with his old crew chief, Drew Blickensderfer, for the campaign. Gragson ‘s car will feature sponsorship from MillerTech, Zep and Rush Truck Centers, among other sponsors.

The last charter from Stewart-Haas Racing now resides with 23XI Racing. The sale is still pending with NASCAR, so it isn’t officially set in stone given the anti-trust lawsuit. That being said, the charter will be used by Riley Herbst, who will drive the #35 Toyota Camry during his rookie season. Herbst’s long-time sponsor Monster Energy will remain with him during his rookie season, as will Chumba Casino. If the sale does not get approved by NASCAR, Herbst’s Cup Series future could be up in the air, as well as the future of his new teammates, Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace.

So, what happened to the remaining SHR drivers, Josh Berry and Chase Briscoe? Well, I’m glad you asked. Both have moved on to bigger and better opportunities.

Josh Berry has been tapped to take over the iconic #21 Ford for Wood Brothers Racing, the oldest team in the sport. Coming off of their 100th as an organization last season, Wood Brothers is making a big move by bringing on Berry to give the organization a much needed shot in the arm. With crew chief Miles Stanley at the helm, Berry and company are looking to get the Wood Brothers their second straight trip to the playoffs, which would be a first for the organization.

Chase Briscoe has landed the most coveted opportunity of all the free agency drivers, landing in the #19 Toyota Camry for Joe Gibbs Racing, which was vacated by a retiring Martin Truex Jr. Briscoe, who signed a multi-year contract with the team, will notably feature sponsorship from long-time NASCAR supporter Bass Pro Shops as he pairs with crew chief James Small as he looks to take a huge step forward in his career.

Road course ace Shane Van Gisbergen will make his long-awaited, full-time Cup Series debut driving the #88 for Trackhouse Racing, which also expands to a three-car organization this season. Alongside his Trackhouse teammates Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez, Van Gisbergen will be an immediate dark horse to make the playoffs and will display sponsorship from WeatherTech and Red Bull through the season. Stephen Doran will serve as Van Gisbergen’s crew chief for the campaign.

Michael McDowell, the long-time stalwart at Front Row Motorsports, has departed the organization after seven successful seasons. McDowell will take over the #71 for Spire Motorsports in 2025, partnering with crew chief Travis Peterson. The noted road course and superspeedway ringer will feature sponsorship from B’laster and Workforce, among other sponsors.

With McDowell taking over the #71, where will Zane Smith go? Why to McDowell’s old stomping grounds of Front Row Motorsports, of course. Smith will take over the #38, which was previously driven by Todd Gilliland, who will slide over and pilot the #34, which was McDowell’s old ride. Smith will partner with Ryan Bergenty as crew chief and will have sponsorship from Speedy Cash, Title!ax and Benebone, while Gilliland will team up with crew chief Chris Lawson and receive sponsorship from long-time Front Row Motorsports sponsor Love’s Travel Stops, as well as Grillo’s Pickles and A&W Restaurants, among other companies.

After a late mid-season trade between Rick Ware Racing and Spire Motorsports, Justin Haley will take over the #7 car full-time in 2025. A driver who has always gotten the most he can out of the equipment he’s been in, Haley will partner with the great Rodney Childers as he looks to continue to grow the Spire organization. Haley will have sponsorship from both Gainbridge and the Fraternal Order of Eagles, among other companies.

Speaking of Rick Ware Racing, Cody Ware will return to pilot the #51 Ford full-time in 2025. With Billy Plourde at the helm, Ware will feature sponsorship from Jacobs Companies. LaJoie will remain with Ware in 2025, only as a part-time entry though. LaJoie will be doing some broadcasting work with Amazon Prime and will run a part-time schedule that has yet to be finalized. LaJoie will attempt to make the Daytona 500 as an open entry in the #01 car to kick off the season.

Lastly, Ty Dillon has once again landed a full-time in the Cup Series, driving the #10 (formerly the #31) for Kaulig Racing. Taking up the torch from Daniel Hemric, Dillon will partner with Andrew Dickerson as his crew chief and feature primary sponsorship from Grizzly Nicotine Patches and Sea Best.

New Tracks, Returning Tracks and Schedule Changes for 2025:

NASCAR has been tweaking the schedule ever so slightly over the past couple of seasons in order to visit tracks they’ve never raced at before or classics that they once raced at and had left for whatever reason. The biggest addition this year is Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. The Cup Series will race in Mexico for the first time ever this summer and the Xfinity will return to this track for the first time since 2008. This road course will race as a 14-turn, 2.41-mile layout. With Mexican native Daniel Suarez and road course ace Shane Van Gisbergen in the field this season, the inaugural race will certainly be one to remember.

The Xfinity Series also will be visiting a “new” track this season, as it makes a triumphant return to Rockingham Speedway. The Rock is a 1.017 D-shaped oval that hosted NASCAR annually from 1965-2004 and briefly hosted the Craftsman Truck Series in 2012 and 2013. For the first time since 2004, the Xfinity Series will take to the track at The Rock, which will serve as a doubleheader with the Craftsman Truck Series racing there as well.

For the first time, Lime Rock Park will host a race among the upper echelon of NASCAR, as it will host a doubleheader for the Craftsman Truck Series and the ARCA Menards Series. One of the great road course racetracks of America, Lime Rock is a 7-turn, 1.53-mile layout that meanders its way through the Appalachian Mountains and offers fans breath-taking views of both nature and the on-track action. With another road course on the schedule, we could very well see a road course ringer pull off the upset victory, or just another ho-hum day at the office for one of the normal favorites. The Craftsman Truck Series will also race at Watkins Glen for the first time since 2021 and will race at the Charlotte Roval for the first time ever. Needless to say, left and right turns are both alive and well in the Craftsman Truck Series once again.

The Cup Series has several changes to the schedule order compared to past seasons as well. The biggest news is that Richmond goes from two dates to one date in order to accommodate the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez race. Richmond had hosted two NASCAR races a year for over 60 years, but all good things (depending on which part of the fan base you poll) must come to an end. The spring date is gone and Richmon’s lone race will be in August. Circuit of the America moves up three spots in the schedule, becoming the third race of the season after Daytona and Atlanta. Bristol shifts back a month from March to April. Texas shifts from April to May. Pocono also moves up a month in the schedule, shifting from a July date to a June date. Sonoma and Iowa both shift back a month, going from June dates to July dates. Dover also has a big shift, moving from a spring date in April to peak-summer heat in July. Michigan remains in the summer, but on the flip side, going from an August date to a June date.

The playoffs are not immune from being changed either. Daytona will return to the regular season finale in August, while Darlington retakes its rightful place as the first race of the playoffs. Because of that, the second Atlanta race also moves from the playoffs, back to a summer date in July. Watkins Glen moves back out of the playoffs, with its race moving back to August this season. In its place, the Cup Series will race at World Wide Technology Raceway in September, its first time hosting a playoff race. In the Round of 12, New Hampshire makes a triumphant return to the playoffs, moving from June to a late-September date. The biggest shot fired comes in the Round of 8, with Homestead-Miami Speedway losing its spot and moving back to a March date. In its place, the ultimate wild card: Talladega. You want carnage? Well, NASCAR is giving it to you this season. With all of these schedule changes, among others, there could very well be plenty of chaos and upset winners all season long.

In Season Tournament: March Madness Fans Rejoice:

In the spirit of March Madness, NASCAR will host an in-season tournament in 2025. The 32-team bracket will be set based upon the best finishing drivers at Michigan, Mexico City and Pocono, with any ties being settled by next best finish and then by overall season-long standings. The five-week tournament will be elimination style (hence the March Madness tie-in) and held at Atlanta, Chicago, Sonoma, Dover and Indianapolis. The last driver standing following Indianapolis will take home a one-million-dollar prize.

This in-season tournament is a welcome addition to the NASCAR schedule, as it gives drivers something to strive for during those dog days of summer/midseason grind. Drivers are competitors at the end of the day and with one million dollars on the line, drivers will have to decide how much risk they are willing to take, especially with their regular season and playoff hopes hanging in the balance. From a gambling side, who doesn’t like filling out a nice bracket and having challenges among friends? It gives fans a fun incentive to tune in from week to week and spark “civil” discussions on social media about the tournament. I for one am very much looking forward to it and will absolutely be tuning in for these races with a little extra incentive.

At the Crossroads: Pivotal Seasons on Tap for Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin:

2025 is gearing up to be pivotal years in the careers of both Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, albeit for different reasons. Kyle Busch, the active full-time driver with the most wins, 63 in total, went winless for the first time in his Cup Series career, logging just five top 5’s and 10 top 10’s on his way to a 20th place finish in the point standings, tied for the worst finish of his career. Busch snapped a streak where he had won at least one race in each of his first 19 seasons at the Cup level. Busch’s last victory came 58 races ago at World Wide Technology Raceway in June 2023.

Hamlin, on the other hand, had a different outcome in 2024, winning three of the first 11 races before going winless the rest of the season on the way to an eighth place finish in the point standings, his worst finish since 2018. Hamlin did log 12 top 5’s, 18 top 10’s and lead 943 laps, still great numbers for a driver in the twilight of his career.

For Busch, this could potentially be his swan song. He’s turning forty years old, his contract is up after this year and let’s be honest, he hasn’t been nearly as competitive at Richard Childress Racing compared to his time with Joe Gibbs Racing, winning just three races since making the move following the 2022 season. I’m sure some of that can be blamed on the equipment, but a driver slowly loses his abilities as he gets older. We can’t outrun Father Time forever and Busch is not immune, as he turns 40 later this season. And if there are no A-list rides available, I can’t see somebody as talented as Kyle Busch toiling away his final years on a mid-tier team.

Hamlin has a whole other set of problems. Hamlin, who turned 44 this past November, still has the skills, as evidenced by his three wins last season. Hamlin is a 54-time race winner who has won both the Daytona 500 and the Southern 500 three times each in his career. He’s won pretty much everything imaginable over the course of his career. The only thing missing is that coveted championship. Prior to last season, Hamlin had finished in the top five in each of the previous five seasons in the point standings. He just can’t seem to close the deal coming down the stretch, although not for a lack of trying. In the last three years in the Round of 8, Hamlin has five top 5’s and eight top 10’s in nine races. He’s raced well, but it just hasn’t been good enough. Hamlin still seems to have the skillset necessary to compete and hold his own against drivers half his age, but he may only get one or two more legitimate chances before the bottom falls out completely for him.

Hamlin also co-owns his own team, 23XI Racing, now, and is in the midst of a high-end lawsuit against NASCAR, which I’m sure also has an effect on his focus at the track. If Hamlin’s on-track success goes south quickly this season, there’s a chance he may just say screw it and focus on being an owner full-time and race occasionally for his own team.

So, in a bold take, we could possibly see the final season for the two active, full-time drivers with the most Cup Series wins this season in both Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. At the end of the day, Busch is too talented of a driver to go winless for much longer. I predict that he will return to Victory Lane, but that he will also seriously consider retirement if no A-list rides open up this off-season. As far Hamlin, I predict he will find Victory Lane multiple times but ultimately end up short in his quest for a championship. One, if not both of these drivers, will retire from full-time racing at the end of 2025.

Big Partner Changes in 2026:

This isn’t necessarily a pressing storyline at the start of 2025, but Sunoco’s contract with NASCAR is up following this season and Xfinity will no longer be the title sponsor of the Xfinity Series following this season either. Sunoco has been the official fuel sponsor of NASCAR since 2004, which makes a changing of the guard feel unexpected after all of these years. Maybe Sunoco re-signs for another 20 years. Maybe someone like Shell or Chevron or Valero or a company completely unexpected steps up to the plate to sponsor fuel in NASCAR. This will certainly be a storyline to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

We are also coming to the end of the “This car is faster than Xfinity 10G era.” Xfinity is in its final season as the title sponsor of the Xfinity Series, where it has been the title sponsor since 2015. Xfinity will remain a partner in the sport, including through the new Xfinity Fastest Lap Award, which gives a point each race to the driver who logs the fastest lap of each race. If multiple drivers have the fastest lap in a race, the driver who has a better finishing position will receive the point. The series was deviously sponsored by Budweiser, Busch and Nationwide. Could a new partner step in and take the torch forward for another decade? Or will an existing partner, like Goodyear or Coca Cola, step up and take center stage in the sport. This too will be an entertaining storyline to watch play out as the year progresses.

The Return of the Option Tire:

After much success at the Richmond race last summer, NASCAR will be rolling the option tire (see what I did there?) back out for the spring Phoenix race. The option tire provides drivers with increased grip early on in a run, while the falloff is greater, and cars will become much looser compared to their counterparts on the regular Goodyear tire. Drivers will receive six sets of regular tires and two sets of the option tire for the race, as well as one set of each to use during Practice. If the option tire is a success again, the option tire would become the regular tire for the championship race at Phoenix in November, eliminating the option of two different tire types for that race. I personally enjoy the option tire, as it opens up the playbook for teams and can lead to more, quality racing action on the track. Sure, it may be “gimmicky” if you fall in a certain part of the ever too vocal portion of the fan base, but it helps with the quality of racing at short tracks, as we know has been iffy at times since the debut of the Gen 7 car. With change, comes a learning curve. Will this tire be perfected overnight? Absolutely not, which the haters will thrive in at every waking moment. However, once the kinks get worked out, this option tire will be a game changer for short track racing and will greatly improve the racing product as a whole for years to come.

Rule Changes for 2025:

NASCAR is always tweaking the rules in order to put on the best show possible for the fans and to try to make things as level as possible across the board throughout the garage. The 2025 season will be no different, with several new policies being put into place before racing gets underway.

The biggest change, and arguably the most controversial, has to be to the playoff waiver policy. If a driver willingly misses a race for a reason other than a medical emergency, the birth of a child, family emergency or due to age restrictions at certain tracks, then the driver will have to forfeit all accrued playoff points and future accrued playoff points and start the playoffs at 2,000 points, regardless of regular season success, and will reset back to 2,000 points in each successive playoff round if they advance. This will only be a factor if a driver is suspended at any point during the season or if they willingly miss a race for any reason. For me, I understand NASCAR wanting their best drivers to race each and every week. But this just feels retaliatory because of Kyle Larson choosing to race in the Indianapolis 500, which started late due to a rain delay and forced Larson to miss all of the Coca-Cola 600, which also ended early due to inclement weather. If the weather would’ve cooperated, this never would’ve been an issue. To me, this is NASCAR saying, we don’t care about growing the sport or seeing our athletes take part in the biggest races all over the world, regardless of series. I fully agree with the suspension part. Suspended drivers should be penalized. Losing valuable playoff points will make you think twice before doing something stupid, both on and off the track. On paper, the policy makes sense. It’s all kosher though until the first time the rule has to be enforced and then NASCAR will once again be the bad guy in the eyes of fans.

The next biggest change for the Cup Series comes to the dreaded Damaged Vehicle Policy. Previously, teams had seven minutes (eight minutes for races at Atlanta Motor Speedway only) to make repairs on pit road and if they could not make minimum speed at that point in time, their day was over. Now, if teams take more than seven minutes to make repairs and they are not done, they cane take the car back to the garage and continue to make repairs until they can make speed and return to the track or until they throw in the towel and call it a day. Also worth noting is that cars that are driven or towed to the garage will not be automatically see their race day come to an end any more. If a car is towed to the garage because of a flat tire or tires or because of crash damage, they will still have the opportunity to make repairs under the Damaged Vehicle Policy, which is an absolute game changer. This is a much welcome reprieve for teams who have battled minor issues in the past that they could’ve fixed had they had more than seven minutes, or even an opportunity in general. Teams will also be penalized if the car leaves the pit box and doesn’t reach the end of pit road before the Damaged Vehicle Policy clock expires. Anything to give the teams the benefit of the doubt is good in my book. I’m sure the haters will find a way to twist this good news, but so be it.

NASCAR also updated the penalty structure for violations by a manufacturer as a whole (Here’s looking at you, Martinsville collusion). Potential penalties could include loss of manufacturers’ points, loss of wind tunnel testing time and loss of computational fluid dynamics test runs. The severity of the penalty will vary, but will be issued for the followed reasons: violation of policies in place for vehicle testing, wind-tunnel limits, event-roster protocols and code of conduct. This goes hand in hand with the “100% rule” for performance on track, which was updated from competitors(s) who “artificially alter the finishing positions” to competitor(s) who “manipulate the outcome of the event.” These crackdowns go hand in hand to try and promote 100% authentic racing action on the track. Will these new penalties be stiff enough? Or will it still not be enough? Only time will well. At the end of the day, we want these races to be 100% through and through with no gray area being exhibited by drivers or officials. Anything meant to uphold the integrity of the sport is always a good thing as far as I’m concerned.

NASCAR has also created an Open Exemption Provisional for its races, which will give elite race car drivers from other series and other disciplines of racing the chance to race at NASCAR’s highest level. Drivers would need to be pre-approved by NASCAR, with previous racing experience and career accomplishments weighing significantly in the overall approval process. Also worth noting that the OEP will not take a spot away from anyone, either. If there are under 40 cars in the field, then the OEP would not need to be utilized. If there are 40 other drivers already in the field, the OEP would be treated as a 41st entry. Helio Castroneves will be the first driver to utilize this provision, as he makes his Daytona 500 debut on Sunday. Since Castroneves will be racing as an open entry at Daytona, he could still race his way in through qualifying or through his Duel race. If all else fails, he will utilize the OEP entry. Drivers utilizing the OEP will be eligible for the race win and would be All-Star Race eligible with a victory but would not receive a playoff berth or any prize money or championship points they would’ve received for the victory. This is an amazing addition for NASCAR, as it will bring these world class drivers from other disciplines into the NASCAR world. NASCAR is trying to grow the sport in that regard at least. I for one am looking forward to seeing what other drivers use this Provisional in the future.

Lastly, Practice and Qualifying will also undergo some significant changes across the Cup, Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series. The majority of Practice/Qualifying sessions will go as follows: Group Practice expands from 20 to 25 minutes; all tracks will have single round qualifying with the exception of superspeedways, which will have a second round consisting of the 10 fastest cars from round one; and most important, starting positions will go back to overall qualifying results, rather than based on the results of the specific qualifying group. Qualifying runs will be single lap attempts, with the exception of short tracks, where drivers will have two laps for qualifying, and for road courses, which will have 20-minute group qualifying sessions.

Listed below its a more-in-depth breakdown of the Practice and Qualifying procedures, courtesy of our friends at NASCAR.COM:

Standard practice and qualifying

• 25-minute practice each for Group 1 and Group 2
  • Groups will be determined by metrics (70% based on previous race finish by owner; 30% based on owner points position. The best scoring cars in metrics will be placed in Group 2)
• Qualifying: One lap, one round
• Tracks: Las Vegas, Phoenix (spring), Miami, Darlington, Texas, Kansas, Charlotte oval, Nashville, Michigan, Pocono, WWT Raceway, New Hampshire.

Short track practice and qualifying

• 25-minute practice each for Group 1 and Group 2
• Qualifying: Two laps, one round
• Tracks: Martinsville, Bristol, Dover, Iowa, Richmond, North Wilkesboro (Trucks), Lucas Oil IRP (Trucks)

Superspeedway qualifying

• No practice, except for a 50-minute pre-qualifying session at Daytona 500
• Qualifying: One lap, two rounds
• Fastest 10 cars in opening round advance to final round
• Starting positions 1-10 will be based on finish in final round; remainder of field will start based on qualifying results in first round
• Tracks: Atlanta, Talladega, Daytona (summer)

Road course practice and qualifying

• 25-minute practice each for Group 1 and Group 2
• 20-minute qualifying each for Group 1 and Group 2, multiple cars on track
• One round of qualifying
• Tracks: Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, Charlotte Roval, Portland (Xfinity), COTA (Xfinity, Trucks; Cup Series will have expanded practice procedures)

The following races will have separate and/or extended Practice and Qualifying sessions:

Cup Series:

• Daytona 500
• COTA
• All-Star Race
• Mexico City
• Indianapolis
• Phoenix championship

Xfinity Series:

• Daytona
• Rockingham
• Mexico City
• Indianapolis
• World Wide Technology Raceway
• Phoenix championship

Truck Series:

• Daytona
• Rockingham
• Michigan
• Lime Rock
• Watkins Glen
• New Hampshire
• Charlotte Roval
• Phoenix championship

Practice and Qualifying for the Cup Series will be seen on Amazon Prime for the first half of the season, while TNT Sports on Max and TruTv will carry both during the second half of the season. Practice and Qualifying for the Xfinity Series can be seen exclusively on The CW and Practice and Qualifying for the Craftsman Truck Series can be seen exclusively on FOX Sports.

All of these begs the most important question of all: Can NASCAR finally be consistent with all of their rules? It’s all we ask for. Just some sort of consistency at the end of the day. Nevertheless, NASCAR is great at one thing, and that would be being inconsistent when it comes to enforcing even the simplest of rules. Safe bet is probably not, so I’m looking forward to the armchair crew chiefs chiming in with tone deaf takes as the season progresses.

The Strongest Daytona 500 Field Ever:

The 2025 Daytona 500 is shaping up to be arguably the most competing one yet, with 45 drivers looking to make the show at the time of writing, 36 of the entries are chartered entries, while nine of the entries are non-chartered. The nine, non-chartered entries will be going for four open spots and can race their way in by snagging one of two spots available on Qualifying speed and one of two spots available in the Duel races. The field could also expand to 41 cars if Helio Castroneves exercises the Open Exemption Provisional. With plenty of storylines available, here are the nine open entries:

• #01 – Corey LaJoie – Rick Ware Racing
• #40 – Justin Allgaier – JR Motorsports
• #44 – JJ Yeley – NY Racing Team
• #56 – Martin Truex Jr. – Tricon Garage
• #62 – Anthony Alfredo – Beard Motorsports
• #66 – Chandler Smith – Garage 66
• #78 – BJ McLeod – Live Fast Motorsports
• #84 – Jimmie Johnson – Legacy Motor Club
• #91 – Helio Castroneves – Trackhouse Racing

Lots of big names in this category, so there is a real threat one of these studs and future Hall of Famers could miss out of the big show. My prediction: Justin Allgaier, Martin Truex Jr., Anthony Alfredo and Helio Castroneves all make the 500. It will be the most highly anticipated Qualifying/Duel sessions ever, and it is almost here!

As a side note, I feel the need to touch on the Mike Wallace controversy, as he was the original driver schedule to drive the #66 car at Daytona for Garage 66. Wallace is a proven winner at Daytona, winning races in both the Xfinity Series and Craftsman Truck Series at the track, as well as posting one top five and a pair of top 10’s in 16 Daytona 500 starts. That being said, Wallace is 65 years old and last ran a Cup Series race in 2015 and last ran in any NASCAR series in 2020. Wallace was supposedly approved to race this season by NASCAR, but they then ruled him ineligible a few days later due to his lack of recent motorsports activity. I don’t know if we’ll ever get the full story of why this situation played out as it did. If NASCAR was concerned about his on-track ability, they could’ve requested he make a start down in ARCA to prove his abilities, much like Shane Van Gisbergen did last season prior to the start of the Xfinity Series season. Or, NASCAR could’ve said, good luck and have at it. Before you jump my bones about Wallace being a moving hurdle, let’s be honest. Garage 66 is nowhere near top tier equipment. The odds of Wallace being able to race his way in this year would be unlikely given the strength of open entries this season. Plus, you’re only good as your equipment. If Wallace goes out and posts the slowest lap of Qualifying, nobody would’ve batted an eye. At the end of the day, if a driver hasn’t raced in NASCAR for x amount of time, there should be some sort of test of physical, cognitive and on-track ability before they are allowed to attempt to qualify for a race. Once again, a lot of this would’ve been resolved had NASCAR laid out a specific set of protocol for Wallace to follow. As recently retired drivers get the bug to do a one-off race, this would be the perfect time for NASCAR to get these rules or protocol into place to resolve this issue for future incidents. Let ‘em race!

Who will win Rookie of the Year:

This one is pretty straightforward. The two Rookie of the Year candidates are Riley Herbst and Shane Van Gisbergen. Herbst will be driving the #35 for 23XI Racing, while Van Gisbergen will be wheeling the #88 for Trackhouse Racing. Herbst has been a slow rise through the ranks, spending the last four seasons driving the #98 for Stewart-Haas Racing in the Xfinity Series, where he earned three wins. Van Gisbergen, on the other hand, has been a quick learn, winning three times and locking down 10 top 10 finishes on his way to a 12th place finish in the Xfinity Series last season while driving the #97 for Kaulig Racing. Oh, and did I mention SVG already has a Cup win? Yeah, he won in his Cup Series debut at the Chicago Street Race in 2023. Both drivers are in capable equipment and Herbst may be a more consistent driver given his extra time spent in NASCAR, but SVG is gonna fucking feast on the road courses this season. Lock me in Shane Van Gisbergen for at least one win, possibly even two wins, a trip to the playoffs and the Rookie of the Year Crown.

Which Drivers will Earn their First Career Win:

No one. Not a damn soul. Don’t get me wrong, there are a ton of talented drivers in this sport, many of whom are hungry and craving that first win. Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, the list goes on. I’ve looked at the schedule, I’ve looked at past results for winless drivers and unless somebody pops up out of the blue on the last lap at a drafting track, I just don’t see any drivers breaking through for that first-time win this season.

Surprise Picks to Make the Playoffs:

Not a massive upset by any means, but we all know Shane Van Gisbergen can wheel it on a road course. He took the NASCAR world by storm in 2023, winning in his Cup Series debut at the Chicago Street Race. Van Gisbergen proved himself capable on other track types last season in the Xfinity Series, locking down three wins and 10 top 10’s on his way to a 12th place finish in the point standings. Van Gisbergen will drive the #88 this season for Trackhouse Racing and will undoubtedly make his presence known early. It’s tough for rookies to gain traction in the Cup Series, but SVG is no ordinary rookie. With Van Gisbergen already having four road course victories in his brief NASCAR career, I have no doubt he will find Victory Lane again in 2025 and punch his ticket to the playoffs.

A winner at Watkins Glen last season, Chris Buescher fell just short of the playoffs, logging one win, six top 5’s and 15 top 10’s on his way to a 17th place finish in the final standings. It’s tough to say Buescher had a bad year, as he more than likely would’ve made his way into the playoffs on points if not for surprise victories by Harrison Burton, Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez, but Buescher did take a step back in 2024, logging two less wins, three fewer top 5’s, two less top 10’s and led 47 laps less when compared to 2023. Buescher is a proven winner though, with four wins over the last two seasons, and still logs plenty of quality results, posting an average finish of 14.31 in 2024. Buescher only had four finishes of 30th or worse last season and posted 22 top 15 performances. If Buescher can turn a few of those top 15’s into top 10’s, I have no doubt he will return to the playoffs again this season, win in hand or not.

Another winner in the playoffs who missed out on the playoffs themselves, Ross Chastain had an up and down season in 2024, posting one win to go along with six top 5’s, 14 top 10’s and 311 laps led. Like Buescher, Chastain just didn’t have the goods coming down the stretch to make the playoffs, posting four finishes of 20th or worse during the final 10 races of the regular season on his way to a 19th place finish in the point standings. Chastain posted a pair of top 5’s and five top 10 finishes in the playoffs, including that victory at Kansas, and is no doubt hungry for more this season. Mark Chastain down for another watermelon-smashing victory and a return trip to the playoffs in 2025!

2025 was an abysmal season for Kyle Busch, who posted only five top 5’s and 10 top 10’s on his way to a 20th place finish in the point standings. With an average finish of 18.31, Busch’s playoff miss can squarely be put on a seven race stretch in the midst of summer where he posted 5 DNF’s, not to mention seven finishes of 25th or worse around that same stretch. Busch did reel off three straight top five finishes to close the regular season, including runner-up performances at Daytona and Darlington, but alas, it was too little, too late for Busch. Busch ended the season on a cold note also, posting seven finishes of 15th or worse order the final 10 races. Busch is closing in on almost two seasons without a win, which is simply unacceptable for the active full-time driver with the most Cup Series wins. With 63 career wins and sitting on a 58-race winless streak, Busch is hungry to get back to Victory Lane, especially as Father Time starts chasing him down at this stage of his career. I have no doubt that Rowdy will shock the doubters and find his way back to Victory Lane and the playoffs this season.

Surprise Picks to Miss the Playoffs:

I won’t lie, it’s difficult to get hyped for a driver with just two wins, 10 top 5’s and 21 top 10’s in three full-time seasons driving for the organization that has won the last three Cup Series titles. If Blaney’s car didn’t blow its load coming to the white flag at World Wide Technology Raceway, Cindric wouldn’t have even made the playoffs last season. For a driver in top tier equipment, Cindric underachieves so much. With the parity in NASCAR as deep as it’s ever been, there are so many great teams in the sport, placing an even greater emphasis on winning. Cindric’s bread and butter has traditionally been on drafting tracks and road courses, which is not a good recipe for long-term success in the sport. With an average finish of 19th or worse each of the last two seasons, Cindric has some serious ground to make up if he wants to be a threat to win, like his teammates, each and every week. I expect a few flashes of brilliance from Cindric this season, but not enough to make it to the playoffs for a second straight season.

Daniel Suarez came out of the gates swinging in 2024, beating Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney to the line at Atlanta in the fourth closest finish in NASCAR history. Other than that, a pretty quiet season for our favorite amigo, logging just three more top five finishes and posting 16 finishes of 20th or worse on his way to a 12th place finish in the point standings. Much like Cindric, Suarez’s bread and butter also comes at drafting tracks and road courses, where he has secured both of his Cup Series wins. All of the pressure will be on Suarez when they go to Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez for the road course race in Mexico in June. Suarez has won on this track on multiple occasions while racing in lower series, so the pressure will be on him to deliver in front of his home crowd. Despite being in quality equipment, Suarez has never posted a better average finish than 16.22 and has only qualified for the playoffs twice in eight seasons. If Suarez doesn’t improve that average finishing position and is forced to close the deal on a drafting track or a road course this season, there is no chance that he’ll point his way into the playoffs.

We all know how much you love to hate this guy, and rightfully so. He’s out there racing in NASCAR, making millions of dollars, and you’re not. Plain and simple. We all know how much some of you hate him for purely superficial reasons. But we aren’t here to talk about that. Last season, despite missing the playoffs, Wallace had his best season to date, logging six top 5’s and 14 top 10’s, both career highs, on his way to an 18th place finish in the point standings. Wallace is closing in on three seasons without a win, but has logged average finishes of 15.28 and 15.89, which is statistically good enough to make the playoffs, provided drivers below you don’t win. That’s what happened last season, denying Wallace a second consecutive trip to the playoffs. Wallace has improved his average finish position each and every season, although the haters will refuse to admit that fact. At the end of the day, Wallace is an above average driver driving above average equipment. If he wants to take that next step in his career, he will need to get over that mental hump and close the deal more often. That breakout season is close at hand, but I just don’t see it happening this season. Expect Wallace to lead some laps and post a handful of top 5’s and top 10’s on his way to another top 20 finish in the final point standings and miss out on the playoffs for a second straight year. And by the way, as long as he brings sponsorship, he ain’t going anywhere unless he chooses to do so. He can write his own ticket for the next 10+ seasons if he wants. So, get the fuck over it and quit being so damn bitter.

Michael McDowell was the new Rocket Man last season, winning the Pole six times, to go along with a pair of top 5’s and seven top 10’s on his way to a 23rd place finish in the point standings. Much like Cindric and Suarez, McDowell is a drafting track and road course expert, with his only two victories to date coming at Daytona and the Indianapolis Road Course. On the bright side, McDowell led 256 laps last season, the most in his career. However, he posted an average finish of 21.31, his worst total since 2019. It certainly didn’t help McDowell that he had 15 finishes of 25th or worse over the course of the campaign. McDowell made a big move in the off-season, leaving his long-time ride at Front Row Motorsports to pilot the #71 for Spire Motorsports. Arguably a lateral move, depending on the day, McDowell will be expected to struggle this season, starting over on a new team, at 40 years old no less. I predict more of the same for McDowell this season, even with the new change. A couple of top 5’s, a few top 10’s, maybe a Pole, even. But McDowell is most certainly a checkers or wreckers type driver, and I just don’t see him finding Victory Lane or making the playoffs in his first season at Spire Motorsports.

Which 16 Drivers will Make the Playoffs:

• Christopher Bell
• Ryan Blaney
• Alex Bowman
• Chase Briscoe
• Chris Buescher
• Kyle Busch
• William Byron
• Ross Chastain
• Chase Elliott
• Ty Gibbs
• Denny Hamlin
• Brad Keselowski
• Kyle Larson
• Joey Logano
• Tyler Reddick
• Shane Van Gisbergen

Which Drivers will Advance to the Round of 12:

• Christopher Bell
• Ryan Blaney
• Chris Buescher
• Kyle Busch
• William Byron
• Ross Chastain
• Chase Elliott
• Denny Hamlin
• Brad Keselowski
• Kyle Larson
• Joey Logano
• Tyler Reddick

Which Drivers will Advance to the Round Of 8:

• Christopher Bell
• Ryan Blaney
• William Byron
• Chase Elliott
• Denny Hamlin
• Kyle Larson
• Joey Logano
• Tyler Reddick

Which Drivers will Advance to the Championship 4:

• Ryan Blaney
• William Byron
• Denny Hamlin
• Kyle Larson

Your 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Champion Is:

Why Ryan Blaney will Win:

These last two seasons, Ryan Blaney has been absolutely cooking. Six wins, 20 top 5’s, 36 top 10’s and 1,129 laps led during that stretch. Not to mention, Blaney won the Championship in 2023 and was runner-up to his teammate Joey Logano last season in the title hunt. It’s not even that Blaney goes out and dominates every week. Blaney has an average finish of 14.08 and 15.22 the last two seasons, which can be blamed on a dozen finishes of 30th or worse. If Blaney was a little luckier, those numbers would suddenly become more impressive. Regardless, Ryan Blaney has found that extra gear and suddenly shifts into title contender every single fall. He takes care of business when he needs to and stays strong and steady during the process. Besides, once Blaney gets to Phoenix, it’s essentially game over. Blaney is riding a streak of seven straight top five finishes at Phoenix, leading 299 laps during that stretch, officially taking over from Kevin Harvick as the King of the Desert. Ford may not be a dominant force all season long, but when that pay window opens up, they are primed to slide in for the kill. When it’s all said and done, I’m predicting that Ryan Blaney will take home his second career Championship and a record fourth straight Championship for Team Penske in 2025!