2025 WM Phoenix Open Predictions

The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits TPC Scottsdale for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open. TPC Scottsdale was designed by Jay Morrish and Tom Weiskopf in 1986 and has hosted the PGA Tour annually since 1987. This year, the course will play as a Par 71, 7,261 yard layout.

Right out of the gate, players need to get the putter heated up if they want to be in the thick of it come Sunday. 14 of the last 15 winners have finished at -15 or better for the week, with three of the last four reaching -19 or better. With a pair of par 5’s, a drivable par 4 and the most raucous crowd in golf awaiting those at hole #16, there is plenty of scoring to be had, but plenty of strokes can be given away just as easily. TPC Scottsdale is not a long course by tour standards, so the leaderboard typically features old and young players, long and short hitters, accurate and wild ball strikers. A true eclectic blend of the tour’s best. That being said, with the desert playing a large part in shaping the course layout and several strategically placed water hazards, a player must truly be crisp from the tee and on their approach shots or they will be paying the price. Most importantly, players have to savor the moment. With upward of 200,000 fans possibly attending each day, including on Super Bowl Sunday, players will experience their own personal Super Bowl as they come out of he tunnel on hole #16 to the rowdiest group of fans that the sport can produce. Will they crumble? Or will they embrace the moment and give the fans something to cheer or, in some cases, boo for?

The field for this year’s edition of the WM Phoenix Open features a solid mix of studs, veterans and up-and-comers, with eight of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking teeing it up in the desert, including World #1 Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Sepp Straka and Robert Macintyre, as well as defending champion Nick Taylor, Sungjae Im, Lucas Glover, Sam Stevens, Thomas Detry and Andrew Novak, just to name a few.

The WM Phoenix Open is quickly closing in on its 100th edition, with the first playing of this tournament taking place in 1932. A Who’s Who of the PGA Tour’s best have played and won in the desert, with a quartet of players each sharing the title for most wins in this event. Arnold Palmer, Gene Littler, Mark Calcavecchia and Phil Mickelson have each hoisted the trophy three times in their career, while Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Jimmy Demaret, Lloyd Mangrum, Johnny Miller, Bob Gilder, Vijay Singh, J. B. Holmes, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka and Scottie Scheffler are also all multi-time winners of this event.

Last year’s edition was won by Nick Taylor, who opened with a 60 on day one and birdied three of his final four holes on Sunday to force a playoff with Charley Huffman, whom he defeated with a birdie on the second playoff hole. Sam Burns and Scottie Scheffler finished T-3, three strokes off the pace, while Sahith Theegala finished in fifth place, four strokes back.

Player to Fade:

Sam Burns has had his ups and downs, but hasn’t won since 2023 and doesn’t seem like he ever plays well this early in the season. I think his game has all the potential to play well, but he just doesn’t step up to the plate at this event. Overall, he is one that we’ll just fade here.

Dark Horse:

Billy Horschel is one of my favs. He has all the playing potential to shine here and while he struggled at Pebble, everyone has a bad week. I feel this tournament lets players let their guard down and play a little more freely. If his putter can get going early, he might sweep the field. 

Top 10:

Justin Thomas has a game that seems to stay pretty steady. His putting has been a little shaky, but in this event, he averages a 68.3 average overall and many top 10’s here at TPC Scottsdale. He should have no problem finding the top 10!

Winner:

Sahith Theegala is my pick to win. He has had success at this event and feels super comfortable with this track. The crowd gets him excited and he seems to shine in the desert. His game hasn’t been super impressive lately, but he has all the ingredients to make this week a take home win!