2024 Wyndham Championship Predictions

The PGA Tour wraps up its regular season this week as it visits Sedgefield Country Club for the 2024 Wyndham Championship. Designed by iconic golf course architect Donald Ross in 1926, Sedgefield Country Club hosted the first four editions of the Wyndham Championship from 1938-1941 and hosted the event on several other occasions in the late 1940’s and through the 1950’s. Sedgefield then became the host course from 1961 to 1976 and then took over again as host course in 2008, where it has been held ever since. This year, Sedgefield Country Club will play as a Par 70, 7,131 yard layout this week.

Sedgefield Country Club has normally produced birdie fests since returning to the schedule in 2008, with the worst winning score being -14 and seven of the last eight winners finishing the tournament at -20 or better. For that reason alone, I want someone who is going to make a ton of birdies and someone who going to have a strong putting game in general. Sedgefield is a relatively shorter course with not a ton of danger off the tee by tour standards, so distance won’t really matter this week. Long and short hitters will have an equal chance of contending as the week goes on. Because of that, the players who have great control of their irons will have the advantage this week, as they will be able to set themselves up for more looks at birdie and realistically, more makable looks at birdie as well. The biggest X-factor this week is the weather. Yes, the effects of Tropical Storm Debby will influence the outcome of this week’s event. Depending on how the weather hits and how hard it hits will dictate just how scoreable the course is and what kind of conditions the players will have to deal with. The players who can keep pace with the weather, take what the course gives them and maintains their composure throughout it all will ultimately separate themselves from the field and give themselves the best chance of winning. With the 70-player field for the FedEx Cup Playoffs being set following the conclusion of this event, the studs of the tour are looking to improve on their position in the FedEx Cup Standings, while there are many other players looking to flip their season and give themselves a chance at some additional starts and elevated prize money in the Playoffs, not to mention the possibility of access to the Signature Events in 2025.

The Wyndham Championship was first held in 1938 and has produced an incredible list of winners throughout the years, including Sam Snead, Ralph Guldahl, Ben Hogan, Byron Nelson, Sammy Byrd, Vic Ghezzi, Lloyd Mangrum, Art Doering, Dave Douglas, Earl Stewart, Doug Ford, Stan Leonard, Bob Goalby, Dow Finsterwald, Mike Souchak, Billy Casper, Doug Sanders, Julius Boros, George Archer, Gene Littler, Gary Player, Buddy Allin, Chi Chi Rodriguez, Bob Charles, Tom Weiskopf, Al Geiberger, Danny Edwards, Seve Ballesteros, Raymond Floyd, Craig Stadler, Larry Nelson, Lanny Wadkins, Andy Bean, Joey Sindelar, Sandy Lyle, Scott Simpson, Ken Green, Steve Elkington, Mark Brooks, Davis Love III, Rocco Mediate, Mike Springer, Jim Gallagher Jr., Mark O’Meara, Frank Nobilo, Trevor Dodds, Jesper Parnevik, Hal Sutton, Scott Hoch, Shigeki Maruyama, Brent Geiberger, K. J. Choi, Brandt Snedeker, Carl Pettersson, Ryan Moore, Arjun Atwal, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Camilo Villegas, Si Woo Kim, Henrik Stenson, J. T. Poston, Jim Herman, Kevin Kisner, Tom Kim and Lucas Glover, just to name a few.

Sam Snead holds the record for most victories in this event, winning it eight times over the course of his career. Davis Love III has won this event three times, while Byron Nelson, Doug Sanders, Billy Casper, George Archer, Danny Edwards, Sandy Lyle, Rocco Mediate and Brandt Snedeker each have two wins a piece in this event.

The 18 hole scoring record for the Wyndham Championship is 59, which was achieved by Brandt Snedeker during the first round in 2018. The 72 hole scoring record is 258 (-22), which was achieved by Henrik Stenson in his victory in 2017 and matched by J. T. Poston in his victory in 2019, both of which were held at Sedgefield Country Club. The 72 hole scoring record to par is 265 (-23), which was achieved by Jesper Parnevik during his victory in 1999, which was held at Forest Oaks Country Club.

Last year’s edition was won by Lucas Glover, who after shooting a third round 62 to take a share of the lead alongside Billy Horschel entering Sunday, shot a final round 68 to win by two strokes over Russell Henley and Ben An. Billy Horschel finished in fourth place, four strokes back, while Michael Kim and Webb Simpson both finished T-5, seven strokes back.

Player to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://golf.com/news/jb-holmes-cryptic-name-big-money-calcutta/

It’s been a rough stretch for J. B. Holmes over the past few years. Last a winner on tour at the 2019 Genesis Open, Holmes sat out all of 2022 battling injuries and since his return in 2023, has been quite lackluster to say the least, making the cut just two times across 10 starts in 2023, while missing the cut in all seven starts so far in 2024, all the while continuing to battle a bulky back. Playing this week on a Major Medical Exemption, Holmes has had no success in this event in the past, missing the cut in both of his previous starts. With no signs of life in his game, Holmes is a lock to miss the cut this week.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://www.si.com/golf/2024/03/07/webb-simpson-sounds-off-liv-golf-pga-tour-divide

Webb Simpson has been lurking in the shadows all season long. In 12 starts in 2024, Simpson has nine made cuts and three missed cuts, but has only finished inside the top 25 once, with that finish being a T-24 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship. The stats? Well, they’re interesting. Simpson ranks 2nd on tour in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, but he also ranks an atrocious 158th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and 160th in Strokes Gained: Putting. With that being said, why would I ever back someone with those types of numbers this week? Because Webb Simpson is Mr. Wyndham, that’s why. In 15 career starts at Sedgefield Country Club, Simpson has one win, two second place finishes, 10 top 10’s, 12 top 25’s, 13 made cuts, one missed cut and one withdraw. Outside of a T-72 finish in 2016 and withdrawing in 2022, Simpson has finished in the top 10 eight times in his last 10 starts in this event and no matter how good or bad he is playing, always seems to will himself into the hunt in this event. Sedgefield seems to suit Simpson’s eye very well and I predict he will use his expertise knowledge to his advantage and bring home his first top 10 finish of the season!

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/sports/pga/2023/05/19/rookie-eric-cole-lead-pga-championship-overnight-then-made-cut-in-his-first-major/70237748007

After an incredible rookie season that saw him pick up seven top 10’s and 14 top 25’s in 37 starts, not to mention Rookie of the Year honors, Eric Cole is having a bit of a sophomore slump. Even so, Cole is still having a respectable season overall, with three top 10’s and eight top 25’s in 26 starts. Cole’s game doesn’t exactly jump off the board when compared to some of his other PGA Tour members, but Cole checks a lot of boxes for an event like the Wyndham Championship, ranking 47th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 17th in Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage and 4th in Total Birdies, all areas that are key to scoring in an event that traditionally produces very low scores. Weather will definitely dictate the outcome of this week’s event, but Cole does have some momentum entering this event. Cole finished T-6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T-7 at the John Deere Classic earlier this summer, both of which are events that are birdie fests, much like the Wyndham traditionally is. Cole finished T-14 in this event last year after shooting a disappointing even par in the final round, so he does have recent success here also. I predict that Cole will improve on last year’s finish and bring home another top 10 finish in 2024.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://www.theopen.com/latest/2019/03/sungjae-im-profile

For my avid readers, you’ll notice that I’ve been picking this guy a lot lately, and it’s not just because I love watching Im autocorrect to I’m every time I type it out. Sungjae Im has been on an absolute heater of late, with three top 5’s, six top 10’s and eight top 15’s over his last 10 starts on tour, which has moved him all the way up to 9th position in the FedEx Cup Standings and in prime position for a possible title run, as the FedEx Cup Playoffs kick off next week. Im’s game has been firing on all cylinders of late too, gaining strokes Off the Tee and on Approach in nine of those 10 starts and Around the Green and Putting in eight of those 10 starts. Im is another one of those players you would want in your lineup for a birdie fest event, ranking 21st in Birdie or Better Percentage, 13th in Birdie Average and 11th in Total Birdies on tour this season. Im put those stats to great use earlier this summer, finishing T-3 at the Travelers. Championship and T-12 at the John Deere Classic, finishing at -20 for the week in each of those events. Most importantly, Im is a stud at Sedgefield Country Club, with three top 10’s and five top 25’s in five career starts, including a T-2 finish here in 2022. The fact that a player of Im’s caliber has not won on tour since the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open is an absolute head scratcher and with as good as he’s playing, I want to be backing this horse when he finally cashes in. All of this leads to a Sungjae Im victory this week in the 2024 Wyndham Championship!


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