The PGA Tour heats up this week as it contests its second major of the season as it visits Valhalla Golf Club for the 2024 PGA Championship. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, Valhalla Golf Club will play as a beefy Par 71, 7,609 yard layout this week.
To find success at Valhalla, you’ll need to check many boxes this week in a field featuring all of the world’s best players. First off, you’ll want to be in control of the long ball. Given the length of the course, long ball hitters will be rewarded with an edge this week. That doesn’t mean short hitters won’t contend, but outdriving your opponent by 30 yards, on average, will pay dividends. Keeping the ball in the fairway will also be vital to success, as those who are errant from the tee will be punished with thick, gnarly rough that will make their approach shots quite difficult. And speaking of approach shots, you’re going to want to have great control of your irons, as the greens at Valhalla are the third smallest on tour, averaging 5,000 square feet per hole. Depending on your length from the tee, an advantage will go to the player who is good with their mid-irons and long irons, as many of the approach shots will likely be between 175-225 yards this week. If the course plays as harshly as it is expected to, players are going to want to take advantage of the easy scoring opportunities this week. The three Par 5’s rank as 3 of the 4 easiest holes on the course, so if you leave shots out there on those holes, then your chances of contending greatly diminish. Lastly, just avoid that big number. Par can often be a good score on a difficult course. Don’t force any bad shots, don’t make bad situations worse and just put your ball in the right spots if you’re going to miss the green. One bad hole can cost you a chance at the win, so taking what the course gives you is going to be key to grinding out a win late in the going.
The PGA Championship was first held in 1916 and was contested as a match play event through 1957, switching to the current stroke play format in 1958. An elite list of the all-time greats of the game have won this event, include Jim Barnes, Jock Hutchison, Walter Hagen, Gene Sarazen, Leo Diegel, Tommy Armour, Olin Dutra, Paul Runyan, Johnny Revolta, Denny Shute, Henry Picard, Byron Nelson, Vic Ghezzi, Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, Jim Ferrier, Jim Turnesa, Chick Herbert, Doug Ford, Jack Burke Jr., Lionel Hebert, Dow Finsterwald, Bob Rosburg, Jay Hebert, Jerry Barber, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, Bobby Nichols, Dave Marr, Al Geiberger, Don January, Julius Boros, Raymond Floyd, Dave Stockton, Lee Trevino, Lanny Watkins, John Mahaffey, David Graham, Larry Nelson, Hal Sutton, Hubert Green, Bob Tway, Jeff Sluman, Payne Stewart, Wayne Grady, John Daly, Nick Price, Paul Azinger, Steve Elkington, Mark Brooks, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, David Toms, Rich Beem, Shaun Micheel, Phil Mickelson, Padraig Harrington, Y. E. Yang, Martin Kaymer, Keegan Bradley, Rory McIlroy, Jason Dufner, Jason Day, Jimmy Walker, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa, just to name a few.
Walter Hagen and Jack Nicklaus share the record for most wins in this event, each hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy 5 times in their career. Tiger Woods has won this event 4 times, while Gene Sarazen, Sam Snead and Brooks Koepka each have 3 victories in the PGA Championship.
The 18 hole scoring record for the PGA Championship is 63, which was accomplished by the following players:
- Bruce Crampton- Round 2, 1975 at Firestone CC
- Raymond Floyd- Round 1, 1982 at Southern Hills
- Gary Player- Round 2, 1984 at Shoal Creek
- Michael Bradley- Round 1, 1993 at Inverness
- Vijay Singh- Round 2, 1993 at Inverness
- Brad Faxon- Round 4, 1995 at Riviera CC
- José María Olazábal- Round 3, 2000 at Valhalla
- Mark O’Meara- Round 2, 2001 at Atlanta AC
- Thomas Bjorn- Round 3, 2005 at Baltusrol
- Tiger Woods- Round 2, 2007 at Southern Hills
- Steve Stricker- Round 1, 2011 at Atlanta AC
- Jason Dufner- Round 2, 2013 at Oak Hill
- Hiroshi Iwata- Round 2, 2015 at Whistling Straits
- Robert Streb- Round 2, 2016 at Baltusrol
- Brooks Koepka- Round 2, 2018 at Bellerive
- Charl Schwartzel- Round 2, 2018 at Bellerive
- Brooks Koepka- Round 1, 2019 at Bethpage Black
- Bubba Watson- Round 2, 2022 at Southern Hills
The 72 hole scoring record is 264 (-16), which was shot by Brooks Koepka in his victory in 2018 at Bellerive Country Club. The 72 hole scoring record to par is 268 (-20), which was shot by Jason Day during his victory in 2015 at the Straits Course at Whistling Straits.
Last year’s edition was won by Brooks Koepka, who shot a final round 67 to beat Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler by two strokes at Oak Hill Country Club. Bryson DeChambeau, Kurt Kitayama and Cam Davis all finished T-4, six strokes back.
Anytime I get a chance to talk about John Daly, you better believe I’m going to do so. Winner of the 1991 PGA Championship at Crooked Stick in his tournament debut, it’s been a long and winding road for Daly in this event, making the cut just 7 times in 29 career starts. Daly last made the cut in the PGA Championship in 2012, where he earned his second best career finish in this event to date, finishing T-18 at the challenging Ocean Course at Kiawah Island. Daly’s recent form hasn’t been the best either, with his best finish on the Champions Tour this season being a T-60 at the Regions Tradition. Not exactly inspiring stuff, to say the least. Sometimes, the older players can be cagey and surprise us with a made cut, but I don’t expect Daly to fall in this category this week. John Daly will undoubtedly miss the cut.
It feels weird calling the 23rd ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking a dark horse, but here we are. Byeong-Hun “Ben” An has yet to win on tour, but he is in the midst of a career season, with 5 top 10’s, 8 top 25’s and just 2 missed cuts in 13 starts. Valhalla is an absolute brute of a course, stretching to over 7,600 yards from the tips and will favor long hitters by default. An ranks 4th in Driving Distance this season, averaging 313.5 yards from the tee. Valhalla’s length will also force players to hit more mid- and long irons than they are used to, with many of the approach shots expected to play in the 175-225 yard range this week, depending on your length. An is solid with his irons, as evidenced by his ranking 12th in Greens in Regulation Percentage, but that yardage range plays right into An’s expertise, as he ranks inside the top 25 in both Approaches from 175-200 Yards and Approaches from 200-225 Yards. An also knows how to take advantage of his scoring opportunities, ranking 2nd in Total Birdies and 23rd in Par 5 Birdie or Betters Leader. With a difficult layout ahead, players need to make the most of the Par 5’s in order to have a chance this week and An checks all of the boxes in order to do so. An finished T-16 at The Masters Tournament a few weeks ago and there is absolutely no reason why he can’t bring home another top 20 finish at Valhalla.
Top 10:
The lean, mean Swedish Machine, Ludvig Åberg has put together an excellent campaign in his first full-time season on the PGA Tour, with 5 top 10’s, 8 top 25’s and 0 missed cuts in 10 starts, highlighted by runner-up finishes at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and at The Masters Tournament. Even though Åberg has made just 26 starts on tour, he makes up for inexperience by excelling in nearly every area of his game. Among the highlights, Åberg ranks inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Approach the Green, which bodes well at any major venue. Åberg is a dual threat, as he ranks inside the top 30 in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy Percentage. Åberg is also pretty solid with his irons, ranking 30th in Greens in Regulation Percentage and 2nd in Proximity to the Hole. Like An, Åberg also excels in the mid- to long iron range, also ranking inside the top 25 in both Approaches from 175-200 Yards and Approaches from 200-225 Yards, and as an added bonus, ranks 2nd in Approaches from 150-175 Yards. Åberg is an absolute stud and when he is on his game, he can truly compete with the best in the game. Åberg finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in his major debut at The Masters Tournament a few weeks ago and I predict that he will finish in the top 10 in his second straight major this week.
No shocking upsets here, folks. With as good as he has been playing lately, there’s no reason to bet against Mr. Vanilla. But let’s go to the stat sheet. Scottie Scheffler is carrying the PGA Tour on his back right now. In his last 5 starts, he has been beating by exactly 1 player and has gone a combined -76 across those 5 starts. Scheffler has 4 wins, 9 top 10’s and 10 top 20’s in 10 starts this season. His worst finish this year was a T-17 at The American Express, where he finished a dismal -21 for the week. Now that Scheffler has unlocked, for the most part, the secret to successful putting, he’s been damn near unstoppable. But every facet of his game is stellar right now. Scheffler ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Approach the Green, 5th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, 7th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 1st in Greens in Regulation Percentage and Proximity to the Hole, 1st in Approaches from 150-175 Yards, 14th in Approaches from 175-200 Yards, 15th in Approaches from 200-225 Yards, 6th in Scrambling, 7th in Total Birdies and ranks 1st in Par 4 Birdies or Better Leaders and Par 5 Birdies or Better Leaders, not to mention leading or being near the top in a boat load of other statistical categories. Scheffler won The Masters Tournament for the second time this year and has finished in the top 10 in 10 of the 16 majors he has teed it up in. As if Scheffler doesn’t have enough incentive, he became a dad for the first time last week, which is only going to give him a little more extra motivation going forward. Until Scheffler goes into a slump, the only person who can beat him is himself. If Scheffler keeps his head in the game and avoid the big number, you’ll be hard pressed to find a better player. When you factor it all together, I predict that Scottie Scheffler will win his second straight major, his third straight start, his third career major and hoist that coveted Wanamaker Trophy with a victory at Valhalla in the PGA Championship!
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