The Cup Series heats up today with the 2024 Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway. Serving as the sport’s throwback weekend, Darlington Raceway is a 1.37 egg-shaped oval that first opened in 1950 and has been on the schedule every year since. Darlington serves as one of the most unique tracks on the schedule given its unique shape and has flummoxed drivers for generations.
Darlington features 25 degrees of banking in turns one and two and 23 degrees of banking in turns three and four, which leads to drivers having a difficult time mastering both sets of corners over the course of race. Making things more difficult is the worn out racing surface, which eats the tires up quite easily. Managing your equipment will be vital because once you wear all the way through your tires, it’ll feel like you’re driving on ice out there. There will be very little pit strategy today, as all drivers will be taking four fresh Goodyears every single time. 400 miles is a long way to go over the course of the afternoon, so not overdoing things and just taking what the track gives you will go a long way towards finding success. Lastly, how badly do you want it? The closer you run against the wall, the more speed you will find. But get too close and you’ll earn a nice Darlington stripe, which could potentially end your day if you ride that wall for too long. It’s a very fine line of risk vs. reward and those who are able to find that right balance will soar to the front.
The Goodyear 400 was first held in 1952 and since then, has produced an incredible list of winners by the greats of the sport, including Fireball Roberts, Curtis Turner, Joe Weatherly, Fred Lorenzen, Junior Johnson, Richard Petty, David Pearson, LeeRoy Yarborough, Buddy Baker, Bobby Allison, Darrell Waltrip, Benny Parsons, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Harry Gant, Bill Elliott, Lake Speed, Ricky Rudd, Sterling Marlin, Jeff Gordon, Dale Jarrett, Jeff Burton, Ward Burton, Ricky Craven, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano and William Byron, just to name a few. David Pearson has won this race the most times, finding Victory Lane 7 times. Dale Earnhardt Sr. is close behind with 6 wins, while Darrell Waltrip has 4 wins and Dale Jarrett has 3 wins.
Last year’s edition was won by William Byron, who led 7 of the final 8 laps and snagged the win late after Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson wrecked while battling for the lead. Kevin Harvick finished second, while Byron’s teammate Chase Elliott finished in third place. Brad Keselowski finished in fourth, with Bubba Wallace rounding out the top 5. Kyle Larson finished 20th after leading 29 laps in the race, Ross Chastain finished 29th after leading 93 laps on the day, and Martin Truex Jr. finished 31st after getting caught up in a late race wreck after leading a race high 145 laps.
Coverage of the Goodyear 400 can be seen on Fox Sports 1, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 1:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.
2024 has not been the great rookie campaign that Zane Smith was hoping to have. Ultimately, it’s been one to forget, with just 2 top 20’s in 12 starts and very few shining moments on the track. In the Craftsman Truck Series, Smith never really got a good grip on Darlington, earning a best finish of 8th in 5 trips to The Lady in Black. Things do not appear to be changing for the better for Smith at Darlington either, ranking 31st in Practice and qualifying 27th for the race this afternoon. Smith has a lot of potential, but I just don’t see him finding success at one of the most difficult tracks on the schedule. Smith will easily finish outside of the top 20 today.
The new top dog at Front Row Motorsports (too soon?), Todd Gilliland has shown improved speed at most tracks this year, but is finally starting to get the results to show that, earning 3 top 15 finishes in his last 5 starts. At first glance, Gilliland doesn’t come to mind as being someone who might find success at Darlington, but the stats say otherwise. Gilliland has finished inside the top 15 in each of the last 2 spring races at Darlington, which bodes well for today. Gilliland showed in Practice that he is primed to find more success at Darlington, having top 10 pace throughout all of Practice, including pacing the field on 20, 25 and 30 lap averages. Gilliland will roll off from 15th position today and I predict that he will earn a 3rd straight top 15 in the Goodyear 400 and pick up his 4th top 15 finish of the season.
Top 10:
Brad Keselowski has been agonizingly close to ending his long winless streak in 2024. Currently sitting at 110 races without a win, Keselowski has found some speed this season, with 4 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s, including a pair of runner-up finishes at Texas and Talladega. Keselowski comes to Darlington having found solid success here in his career, with 1 win, 6 top 5’s and 11 top 10’s in 20 starts. Keselowski has finished in the top 7 in 4 of his last 5 trips to Darlington and has shown solid pace throughout the weekend, ranking inside the top 5 on 20, 25 and 30 lap averages, and most importantly, qualifying 2nd for today’s race. Keselowski has shown time and again that he does a great job at managing his equipment and taking what the track gives him, which will reign supreme today at a difficult Darlington. He may not take home the victory, but I predict that Keselowski will be in the mix for the win today and that a top 10 finish is a lock.
Once again, really going out on a limb with today’s pick, but sometimes, the favorite is the favorite for a reason. Kyle Larson has been feast or famine (what else is new) in 2024, with 2 wins, 6 top 5’s and 3 finishes outside of the top 20 in 12 starts. His Darlington stats? Absolutely impeccable. 1 win, 6 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s and 770 laps led in 12 career starts. Larson is one of the best at running up high against the wall and because of that, does a great job of finding the maximum amount of speed available at Darlington. Larson has solid short run speed, pacing the field on 15 lap average and ranking 3rd on 10 lap average in Practice. If Larson does a solid job of managing his tires on the long runs, he will be the car to beat all race long. Larson qualified 6th today and is looking to build on his recent momentum, finishing 2nd at Dover and winning last Sunday at Kansas. Finally, how can I not pick him after seeing that throwback scheme? Rocking the iconic Terry Labonte Kellogg’s throwback, I predict that Kyle Larson will rpick up his 3rd win of the season and his 2nd at The Track Too Tough To Tame!
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