At long last, a new NASCAR season is here. Time to strap on four, fresh Mr. Feel-Goods, fill that tank to the brim with Sunoco fuel and crank those engines wide open as we drive down the road and preview the storylines that lay ahead, including whether Ford is the team to beat for the championship, if drivers like Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman can bounce back from rough, 2023 campaigns, how Stewart-Haas Racing will fair following the departure of Kevin Harvick and so much more, including who we predict will be crowned the Champion at the end of the season in Phoenix!
Is Ford the New King of the Track:
It’s not about how fast you start; it’s about how you finish. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. That seems to be the Ford mantra every season of late. Come out swinging with tons of speed at Daytona, struggle over the next several months, display abysmal speed on intermediate tracks and then start easing up on the competition during the summer months before swooping in for the kill come the Playoffs. Stop me if you’ve seen this storyline before, because we have seen it first-hand each of the last two seasons now. And 2023 was even more impressive, with Ford drivers taking home the championship trophy in the Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series last season. Team Penske drivers Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney were not dominant on the way to their championships. But when the chips truly counted and a title was on the line, they stepped up to the plate and closed the deal.
Chevrolet has paced the way forever, winning 41 championships, including an incredible 25 of the last 40. But Ford is looking to make it 3 straight in the Cup Series, which has never happened in the modern era. Rex White, Ned Jarrett and Joe Weatherly accomplished the feat from 1960-62, but each driver drove multiple manufacturers over the course of their championship campaigns. David Pearson also put together consecutive championships for Ford in 1968-69 and Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing (then Roush Racing) also accomplished the repeat in 2003-04 with Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch brining home consecutive Ford championships. With the past two champions of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney pacing the way, they look to try and bring home a third straight championship for the Ford camp, not to mention hungry drivers like Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric, among others also looking to carry the torch for a Ford trifecta. Will Ford close the deal yet again in 2024? Or will Chevrolet return to their championship winning ways? Or will Toyota step up and take home their first title since 2019? Keep on reading to find out.
Stewart-Haas Racing & The Fountain of Youth:
With the retirement of Kevin Harvick and the departure of Aric Almirola, Stewart-Haas Racing is going to look remarkably different, and more notably, younger. The veteran anchor of the team? 29-year-old Chase Briscoe, who is beginning his fourth season with the #14 team. Also returning will be Ryan Preece, driving the #41 for the second consecutive year. Fresh, young blood will be joining the team in 2024, with Josh Berry making the jump from the Xfinity Series, the unofficial, heir-apparent to the #4 car. And in a “controversial” move, depending on who you ask, Noah Gragson returns from his “sabbatical” in a big way, signing on and driving the #10 car. Their combined average age? 30, a big jump when compared to 48-year-old Kevin Harvick and 39-year-old Aric Almirola. With youth, comes inexperience. And with the struggles that Stewart-Haas has shown in recent years, even with a veteran presence, could make 2024 a very long season for the organization.
Do all of these drivers have the ability to win? Absolutely. You can’t help but expect that one of them will find a way to Victory Lane at some point over the course of the year, but who knows what to expect at this point. Chase Briscoe’s 9th place finish in 2022 was the last time any SHR driver even cracked the top 10 in points and they have only won 4 races as an organization over the past three seasons. With the next-gen car has come parity, which is the best thing that SHR has going for them at this point. Expect more struggles, with the occasional flash of brilliance, for SHR in 2024, which is seemingly the new par for the course for them.
All Eyes on Hendrick Motorsports:
Arguably the biggest storyline for 2024 has to be the drivers of Hendrick Motorsports. As the organization prepares to celebrate its 40th anniversary this season, it’s the tale of two sides of the coin, with Kyle Larson and William Byron combining for 10 wins and 2 of the 4 spots in the Championship 4, while Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman both missed time due to injuries, and in Elliott’s case, a suspension as well, on the way to a combined 0 wins and 2 missed playoff appearances.
At this point, Larson and Byron are locks for the playoffs based on their talent levels and how well they raced last year. That brings us back to Elliott and Bowman, the two hard luck kids looking for big rebounds in 2024. Like him or hate him, Chase Elliott is a talented driver, with 18 career Cup Series wins, including wins in 5 consecutive seasons prior to last year. If he remains fully healthy, he will make the playoffs and he will undoubtedly find victory this season. And lastly, that leaves us with Bowman the Showman. Despite having that nickname, Bowman gets a lot of slack for inconsistency. One top 10 points finish since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2018, but he had also made the Playoffs in each of his first 5 seasons prior to missing out last season and he had won races in 4 consecutive seasons prior to last season as well, including a career-high 4 wins in 2021. Bowman was coming on strong last season before his injury, starting the season with 4 straight top 10’s and 6 top 10’s in his first 7 starts. Despite being labeled a “hack” by many, Bowman seems to do just enough to make the Playoffs each year and we predict that he will continue that trend in 2024. A win is very possible, but he’ll make the Playoffs either way.
At the end of the day, Hendrick Motorsports is celebrating 40 years. You better believe that all 4 drivers are going to find a way to make the postseason and put at least one of their drivers, if not more, into the Championship 4 at Phoenix. The last time Hendrick failed to put a team in the Championship 4 was 2019 and with Ford having won the championship each of the last two years, they’ll be itching to put a Chevy back on top of the sport. Those are just the facts, like ‘em or not.
Is This the End of Martin Truex Jr.:
Despite drivers dominating in their careers, Father Time eventually catches up with them all. As I like to refer to it, the bottom falls out, often with no warning, and drivers just seem to struggle at the tail end of their career. We’ve seen it happen to many of the greats over the years: Richard Petty, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Darrell Waltrip and Kevin Harvick all struggled towards the end of their careers, some harder and more evident than others, but all of them were winless in their final seasons and some of them just didn’t know when to step away. That being said, several of these drivers were still reeling off top 5’s and top 10’s, but they just couldn’t get back into Victory Lane, for whatever reason.
Martin Truex Jr. very much qualifies for this category and depending on how he rebounds this season, could also ride out his final days in mid-pack hell. Yes, he won 3 times last year and was the Regular Season Champion, but the Playoffs started, and he forgot to show up. Just 2 top 10 finishes over the final 10 races and was not much of a threat for a Championship that he nearly qualified for anyway thanks to that Regular Season title. But 2022 was a struggle as well, with him racking up a few top 5’s and a bunch of top 10’s, only to miss the Playoffs at the end of the day for the first time since 2014. At that point in time, I thought the bottom fell out on Truex, but he proved me wrong last season… until the Playoffs started. Now we are back to the same conversation again. Another year older, more noticeable struggles. He’s still talented, he’s still going to contend, but are his winning days finally over? It very well may be. Winning is incredibly important in this current Playoff structure and with the parity of the Next Gen car, is even more difficult. There are almost always a few drivers who point their way in, but winning cures all of that. The Truex retirement rumors are burning hotter now than at any time in his career and 2024 may finally be the last lap for Truex. Will he go out with a bang or whimper, though, is the question. I think this is the end for another great champion of the sport. He’ll pick up some more top 5’s and top 10’s, pad those stats, possibly eek into the playoffs, call it a career and drive off into the sunset.
Will Denny Hamlin Finally Win the Championship:
I will openly be the first to admit, I am not a Denny Hamlin fan. Is he abrasive? Yes. Is he aggressive? Yes. Is he the epitome of the villain? You better believe it. Is NASCAR a better sport because of him? 100%. A 51-time winner in the Cup Series, the 43-year-old has done everything, except win the Championship. Although it’s not for a lack of trying. Over the past 5 seasons, Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in the points 5 times, with 3 Championship 4 appearances over that stretch, not to mention 20 of his 51 wins coming during that stretch as well. Hamlin seems to only be improving with age and is still a major force to be reckoned with. Yes, he has fallen short in his career of the Championship. But he still has an incredible racing pedigree, nonetheless.
Looking at the stats, I hate to say he chokes coming down the stretch, but he has just 1 win and 5 top 5’s in the Round of 8 over the past 5 years. Not the most promising results for someone looking to close the door on the championship. His best finish in the Championship race the past 5 years has been a 3rd in 2020, which was still only good enough for 3rd in the final standings. The law of averages says if you put yourself into the same situation so many times, you’re bound to experience every possible outcome. The window is quickly closing for Hamlin, who likely has 3-5 years left to make any sort of Championship run. If he can get out of his own head and elevate his results when it matters most, he will finally climb over that mountain. But if he continues with the status quo, he’ll continue to finish in the status quo. I predict that it isn’t going to happen this year, but wouldn’t rule out a title before it’s all said and done.
Schedule Shake Ups:
Each and every year, there are always schedule changes. Some tracks get added, some tracks get removed, other tracks just swap places on the schedule. 2024 is no different. Right out of the gate, we go to straight carnage, with two drafting races to kick off the season. Daytona remains the first race of the season, but now Atlanta shifts to the second race of year, replacing Auto Club, which is no longer on the schedule and is in the process of demolition/renovation, depending on who you ask. The Regular Season Finale has changed venues as well, moving from Daytona to The Lady in Black, Darlington. That’s right, the Southern 500 is now the regular season finale. A solid move on NASCAR’s part to make a Crown Jewel race the Regular Season Finale. 500 miles under the lights at the Track Too Tough to Tame.
And speaking of Crown Jewels, the Brickyard has a true return to the Brickyard, as the Brickyard 400 will once again run on the oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Picture it: wishy washy fans complain about how bad the oval racing is at the Brickyard. NASCAR changes it and makes them run the road course configuration of the Brickyard. Fans continue to complain about it. NASCAR moves the race back to the oval configuration. I have no clue what to expect with the Next Gen car at the Brickyard, but passing will be at a premium and fans will complain about the racing action, per usual.
The biggest changes have come in the Playoffs, though, with the first two races of the playoffs being held at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Watkins Glen International, a drafting track and a road course. The changes means that there will be a drafting track and a road course in each of the first two rounds of the Playoffs, with Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Roval making their standard appearances in the Round of 12. The first round suddenly becomes more unpredictable, and also more pressure packed, with the addition of more X-factor type tracks to the Playoffs. Playoff Points are at an even greater premium, and being able to avoid the big one will truly make or break your season. If a superspeedway ringer or a road course ringer makes the Playoffs, they could very well be the disrupter to make it to the Round of 8. The possibilities are endless, but there will continue to be plenty of action in the Playoffs this season. Additionally, Kansas Speedway moves from the Round of 16 to the Round of 12 this season, while Texas Motor Speedway moves from the Playoffs to a spring date in April.
The Bristol Dirt Race is no more, with both Bristol races running on the concrete, the spring race during the day and the fall night race at, you guessed it, night.
A brand-new track is also added to the schedule this year, with the Cup Series racing at Iowa Speedway for the first time on Father’s Day in June. The 7/8 of a mile, oval track previously hosted the Xfinity Series and Truck Series in the past, but will host the Cup Series for the first time. The race has been sold out since last year, with high hopes for it moving forward. Being the only track of this size on the schedule makes for another unique racetrack on the schedule, much to the anti-cookie cutter track fans.
For the folks in the back who can’t hear me, CHANGE CAN BE A GOOD THING. The schedule continues to adjust each and every year as NASCAR continues to make sure it is putting on the best possible show for the fans. I look forward to seeing how this new schedule works out and I look forward to the exciting racing drama it will produce.
New Ride, Who Dis:
There are several drivers who will be in new rides in 2024. We discussed two of them previously, with Josh Berry and Noah Gragson both in new rides for Stewart Haas-Racing. But there are quite a few others. Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar fall in this category, both making the leap from the Truck Series to Spire Motorsports, where they will be driving the #71 and #77, respectively, in their rookie season. The next move is a bit of a head scratcher, as Justin Haley left Kaulig Racing to drive the #51 for, gulp, Rick Ware Racing. RWR has been notoriously known for poor results, but with a new alliance in the rebounding Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Haley clearly sees some sort of potential there. Joining him for most of the season will be Kaz Grala, who will drive 25 races in the #15 for RWR in 2024.
The two drivers who have the highest expectations, though, are Daniel Hemric and John Hunter Nemechek. Both drivers are making their second, full-time return to the Cup Series, with Hemric driving the #31 for Kaulig Racing and Nemechek taking over the #42 at Legacy Motor Club. Kaulig Racing has had flashes of brilliance, highlighted by a pair of road course wins by AJ Allmendinger over the past few years. But they’ve also struggled at times, having yet to register a top 20 finish in the Championship point standings. Hemric brings sponsorship dollars though, and he is a proven Xfinity Series champion. We shall soon see how he fares.
John Hunter Nemechek is definitely facing the most pressure to perform, given some of the dominant seasons he has had in recent years in the Xfinity Series and Truck Series. The #42 car, and Legacy Motor Club as a whole, struggled last season. However, a switch to Toyota during the off-season could be the kick in the spark plugs they truly need to perform. More on that below. Nemechek is arguably the most competent driver to wheel the #42 in its brief career. The car has literally had 1 top 10 finish amongst 7 drivers in 72 races, including one start by Nemechek late last year. By no means is Nemechek going to go out and dominate, but for a car that has yet to crack the top 30 in points, a top 25 finish could be a realistic, and much welcomed, improvement.
The Shot Heard ‘round the Garage: Legacy Motor Club Switches to Toyota:
When Jimmie Johnson joined the ownership group at Legacy Motor Club, I can assure you no one saw them switching manufacturers, let alone switching over to Toyota, given Johnson’s long and storied history with the Chevrolet brand. The entire world took notice with the Toyota announcement, as Legacy did not believe they were being treated on par with the other Chevrolet-based teams and weren’t as able to readily access resources to improve the team. Given the lack of Toyotas in the Cup Series (Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing are the only other teams under the Toyota banner), not to mention the success those teams have had, it almost seems like a no-brainer to switch. Even before the re-brand, the #43 car had had minimal success, with its two most recent wins being the 2014 Coke Zero 400 and the 2022 Southern 500. And yes, Richard Petty is still involved with the organization, albeit mostly in a figurehead/consultation role. More people are aghast that “All-American, blue collar, stereotypical southern drawl” Richard Petty could ever jump to “the enemy.”
At the end of the day, it’s about results, it’s about winning races, it’s about winning championships. Legacy is not going to turn things around overnight, but I expect their results to improve across the board this year. I predict that Erikka Jones will be pacing the way and definitely be a dark horse threat for a playoff appearance. John Hunter Nemechek will improve the running order of the #42. And Jimmie Johnson may pop off for a top 10 at some point, but let’s keep those expectations to a minimum given his late career struggles. Overall, expect big gains from Legacy Motor Club in 2024.
Short Track and Road Course Package Changes:
You may have noticed that the short track and road course racing last season was, slightly horrendous. NASCAR has heard the complaints and has made some changes for the 2024 season. NASCAR did some testing at Phoenix during the off-season and will be rolling out a simplified rear diffuser with fewer vertical strakes. The new rear diffuser will lower downforce at the front of the car by keeping the engine panel strake-free. This new package will utilize the same splitter stuffers from last year and will also include a taller rear spoiler to try and make up for the lesser downforce upfront. Teams seem to be genuinely pleased with these changes after testing with them, but testing them at one track doesn’t mean that they will work as intended at all tracks they plan to use it at. Nevertheless, we remain hopeful that these changes will improve the quality of racing on short tracks and road courses, creating more on-track passing and raising the quality of the racing.
New Rule Changes for 2024:
NASCAR is always tweaking the rules in order to put on the best show possible for the fans and to try to make things as level across the board as possible throughout the garage. The 2024 season will be no different, with several new policies being put into place before racing gets underway.
The biggest change has to deal with the outcome of qualifying. Drivers who finished 11-40 in qualifying assumed their positions based on who was fastest, regardless of if they qualified in Group A or Group B. Now, drivers who don’t advance to the second round of qualifying have a simpler way of assuming their positions. Drivers from Group A will start on the outside of the rows of the grid, while drivers in Group B will start on the inside of the rows on the grid. This change is to ensure drivers have a more accurate starting spot based on changing track conditions over the course of qualifying.
Stage breaks are officially returning to all road course races as well. Fans complained that stage break cautions were unnecessary and sucked up way too much time on road courses, with laps taking upwards of 5 minutes to complete on certain tracks. NASCAR took them out at several road courses last year, which resulted in long green flag runs and shorter race times, also causing fans to complain. NASCAR is putting those cautions back in place to ensure all races are run the same, with each race now featuring those stage break cautions once again. I’m sure NASCAR can’t wait to hear fans complain once again.
NASCAR is also trying to help teams with issues in qualifying, as they are going to send out a tow truck to help cars that are stranded with flat tires. It’s not out of the ordinary for that to happen, but the tow truck will now use a dolly and travel at a slower pace to ensure that the underbody doesn’t get destroyed on the way back, which has been a common occurrence among cars with flat tires. This is to try and help teams make sure they put the best possible car they can into the race and to try and cut down on any potential damage that may be caused from the flat tire on the way back to pit road.
Other notable rule and track changes include:
Xfinity Series and Craftsman Truck Series will be switching from an 11 gallon gas can to a 9 gallon gas can. This is to allow teams to have more variance and less specialization in who they can hire for this specific role.
Cup Series teams will have the option to add new, lighted, LED signage to their pit boxes for sponsorship placements.
Xfinity Series teams will be limited on what sort of backup vehicles they can bring to the track. Organizations with two teams or less can bring one, fully-prepared backup car to the track each race, while organizations with three or more teams can bring two backup cars, with only one being fully-prepared. This is in effect for all races besides west coast races that are run back-to-back and races where qualifying and the start of the race are separated by less than two hours.
Watkins Glen will be removing the steep curbing through the bus-stop chicane and replacing it with contact pads and Daytona will be removing the rest of the grass from its backstretch following the Daytona 500 and will be paved over. Both of these efforts are to promote driver safety and to ensure drivers are not taking any additional hits on their body than is absolutely necessary.
Wet weather packages will once again be run at all road courses and ovals that are one mile or less (besides Dover and Bristol) in 2024. Lights, wiper blades, rear flaps and defogger will be required for the cars on the road courses, while only a defogger will be required on the oval wet weather package.
Which Drivers will Earn their First Career Win:
Ty Gibbs put together a solid rookie campaign in 2023, with 4 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s on his way to an 18th place finish in the point standings and the Rookie of the Year honors. Gibbs continued to improve and grow all season long, with all of his top 5’s coming in the second half of the season. Gibbs made it through his rookie season without ruffling too many feathers, a complete 180 compared to his time in the Xfinity Series. With a full season under his belt, Gibbs is ready to take that next step in 2024, which will include his first victory and his first trip to the Playoffs.
Surprise Picks to Make the Playoffs:
Ty Gibbs- See Drivers Who Will Earn Their First Career Win
Another year in the books, another year as the most polarizing driver in the sport for Bubba Wallace. Despite the immense hate this driver gets, despite the “claims” that he is a horrible driver, the stats prove otherwise. Wallace has improved each and every season in his career in Average Start Position, Average Finish Position and final point standings position. From 2022 to 2023, Wallace improved by over 2 finishing positions, nearly 6 starting positions, and 9 spots in the point standings on the way to a 10th place finish by season’s end. No, he didn’t win. Yes, he pointed his way into the Playoffs in a relatively weak season. Nevertheless, here we are. Deal with it. He’s not going away anytime soon. We expect to see continued progression from Wallace in 2024, another win and another trip to the Playoffs.
2023 was the breakout season that we’ve been waiting to see from Chris Buescher for several seasons now. 3 wins, 9 top 5’s and 17 top 10’s on the way to a career best 7th place finish in the point standings. RFK Racing as a whole made immense gains last season, with both Buescher and Keselowski showing improved speed and improved finishing positions, with Buescher averaging a 12.14 finishing position, up 5 positions from 2022 and Keselowski averaging a 14.44 finishing position, also up nearly 5 spots from the previous season. Buescher won on 3 different styled tracks in 2023 and has proven he has the grit to make a deep Playoff run. We expect that Buescher may regress a little in 2024 when compared to last 2023, but we still expect Buescher to find Victory Lane and make another Playoff run in 2024.
2023 was a tale of 2 seasons for Alex Bowman, who had 6 top 10’s in his first 10 starts on the year. Bowman missed 3 races after suffering a back injury in a sprint car race and was not the same driver coming back, with just 4 top 10’s over the final 23 races. Bowman also received a 60 point penalty due to alterations to the car’s greenhouse during post-race inspection of the Richmond race. Bowman would’ve missed the Playoffs even without the penalty, but you can’t help but wonder if Bowman was even at 100% when he returned. If he wasn’t, that helps explain some of the struggles. Bowman is by no means the greatest driver out there, as some of his contemporaries will gladly tell you. But it’s often better to be lucky than good. Bowman the Showman is nothing else if not consistent, having won at least 1 race in each of the past 4 seasons prior to 2023 and making the Playoffs each of the previous 5 seasons prior to last year. We predict that Bowman will get back on track, pun intended, in 2024, with a trip to Victory Lane and another trip to the Playoffs.
Surprise Picks to Miss the Playoffs:
The defending Daytona 500 champion, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had arguably his most consistent season to date, with 1 win, 2 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s. Stenhouse also made huge jumps across the board in 2023, finishing nearly 5 positions better on average, starting almost 4 spots better on average, finishing on the lead lap 9 additional times and earning 6 less DNFs compared to his 2022 season. This was Stenhouse’s best season since 2017, which is when he earned both of his other career wins. These two seasons are anomalies, with Stenhouse averaging between an 18th and 22nd place finish in 8 of his other 9 full time seasons. In other words, Stenhouse is a must win to make the Playoffs any given season and he very rarely strays from the average based on his past results. It was an awesome story seeing Stenhouse in Victory Lane at the Daytona 500, but being in a must win on drafting tracks is rarely a receipt for sustainable success. That is why we don’t see a repeat trip to the Playoffs for Stenhouse.
Driving for Front Row Motorsports, Michael McDowell shocked the world last season by bringing home a victory at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course to punch his ticket to the Playoffs. McDowell had a 2023 that nearly mirrored the one Stenhouse had, with 1 win, 2 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. Despite the success McDowell had in 2023, he actually regressed across the board, as he had 2 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s in 2022. McDowell averaged a 16.69 finishing position in 2022, but fell to an average of 19.03 in 2023. McDowell had 13 finishes outside the top 20 in 2022, but he had 18 such finishes in 2023. I genuinely like McDowell, don’t let this review fool you. But at the end of the day, McDowell, like Stenhouse, is only making the Playoffs if he pulls off a must win. McDowell has a little wider arsenal though, as he can pull it off at either a superspeedway or at a road course. The track McDowell won on last season is no longer on the schedule and McDowell is still in mid-tier equipment. McDowell is super talented, but I just don’t see him making the Playoffs in 2024.
Team Penske has won the Championship each of the past 2 years, with 2 different drivers no less. However, their third driver leaves them with more to be desired. Austin Cindric came out swinging in his rookie season, taking home the victory in the Daytona 500. The following 71 races have been quite underwhelming, with Cindric earning just 5 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s since then. Only 3 of those top 10’s came on non-drafting and non-road course tracks, so not the most inspiring results when it comes for future success. Not bad results if you’re a mid-pack team, but when you’re driving for one of the elite teams of the sport, that’s just not going to cut the mustard. Cindric had an Average Starting Position of 12.61 and an Average Finishing Position of 16.25 in his rookie season and regressed by a lot in 2023, averaging an 18.31 Starting Position and a 21.64 Average Finishing Position in 2023. If Cindric wants to bring home a title for Penske, he’s going to need to start running better across the board. Cindric has a lot of areas to work on in 2024 and we just don’t see a Playoff appearance in the near future for him.
In his 6th full-time season, Daniel Suarez got his first Cup Series victory at Sonoma in 2022. His teammate Ross Chastain finished 2nd in the point standings that year as well, so big things were expected for both drivers in 2023. Chastain did his part with a pair of wins, but Suarez struggled. He started 2023 with 3 straight top 10’s, but then fell back to earth for a bit. The final stats? 3 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s, quite a step back from the 6 top 5’s and 13 top 10’s in 2022. Suarez had an Average Finish of 19th in 2023, a few spots worse than the 16.5 Average Finish of 2022, plus he had 17 finishes outside the top 20 in 2023, nearly half the races. Having that many finishes that far back is going to get you nowhere fast. If Suarez can find some more consistency, perhaps he could be an outside threat for a return trip to the Playoffs. But at this point, he is in a must win situation at a superspeedway or a road course for 2024 if he wants to be in the Playoff hunt.
Who will win Rookie of the Year:
The Rookie of the Year battle will be one of the most highly contested battles in recent years, as Josh Berry, Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar all battle for the coveted title. On paper, Zane Smith is a champion, winning a title in the Craftsman Truck Series in 2022 and finishing runner-up for the title in both 2020 and 2021. Carson Hocevar is a proven winner in the Truck Series and showed solid pace in a handful of Xfinity Series starts last season, not to mention some solid runs in the Cup Series as a relief driver for several drivers. Josh Berry is the ultimate journeyman, racing Late Models for years before being selected to drive the #8 car for Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the Xfinity Series. Berry proved himself as a winner in that series, and like Hocevar, proved himself a capable relief driver, as he had a trio of top 10 finishes while subbing in for Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman last season. At the end of the day, Berry may not have a Championship like Zane Smith and he may not be as aggressive of a driver like Carson Hocevar, but he’s in better equipment. Smith and Hocevar will both be fielding entries for Spire Motorsports, while Berry is taking over the iconic #4 car from Kevin Harvick at Stewart-Haas Racing. I don’t care how talented you are as a driver; at the end of the day, you’re only as good as the equipment you’re in. SHR has struggled in recent years, but they are still a few notches ahead of Spire Motorsports across the board. Spire has made gains, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to keep pace with the top tier teams. Josh Berry will be your 2024 Rookie of the Year.
Which 16 Drivers Will Make the Playoffs:
Christopher Bell
Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman
Chris Buescher
Kyle Busch
William Byron
Ross Chastain
Chase Elliott
Ty Gibbs
Denny Hamlin
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Larson
Joey Logano
Tyler Reddick
Martin Truex Jr.
Bubba Wallace
Which Drivers Will Advance to the Round of 12:
Christopher Bell
Ryan Blaney
Chris Buescher
Kyle Busch
William Byron
Ross Chastain
Chase Elliott
Ty Gibbs
Denny Hamlin
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Larson
Tyler Reddick
Which Drivers will Advance to the Round Of 8:
Christopher Bell
Chris Buescher
Kyle Busch
William Byron
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson
Tyler Reddick
Which Drivers will Advance to the Championship 4:
Christopher Bell
William Byron
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson
Your 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Champion Is:
Why Willam Byron will Win:
After multiple seasons at Hendrick Motorsports, William Byron finally had his breakout season in 2023, amassing 6 wins, 15 top 5’s, 21 top 10’s, 28 top 20’s and 1.017 laps led on his way to a 3rd place finishing in the point standings. Although he isn’t the flashiest driver on the track, Byron stepped up to the plate down the stretch and showed why he belonged to be in the Championship 4, with 2 wins, 7 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s over the final 12 races of the season. Byron won on road courses, intermediate style tracks and drafting tracks, as well as having only 3 DNFs all season. Byron struggled on short tracks, with a best finish last season of 9th coming at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol. Byron is a driver who has the ability to win at any style track on any given week and is a pretty consistent driver across the board, which is a bonus when the pressure heats up the closer you get to a Championship. Byron won the spring race at Phoenix last season and won the first stage and led 95 laps during the race before finishing 4th at the fall Phoenix race, which shows he is capable of finding pace when it comes down for a title. As Hendrick Motorsports celebrates their 40th anniversary in 2024, we predict that William Byron will save the best gift for last by bringing home another Championship for the storied organization!
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