The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits Pebble Beach for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Two courses will play host to the event this year, Pebble Beach Golf Links, which will play as a Par 72, 6,972 yard layout, and Spyglass Hill Golf Course, which will play as a Par 72, 7,041 yard layout. Players will team up with a celebrity partner and play both courses over the first two days, which just the players will play Pebble Beach during the final two rounds.
Pebble Beach has the smallest greens on tour, which truly places ball striking at a premium this week. With thick, rye grass rough, any errant tee shots or approach shots will be penalized accordingly. Being an escape artist from the rough and having deft touch around the greens will also benefit the players who find success here. Despite a challenging setup due to exposure to the elements alongside the Pacific Ocean, scoring has been low in this event, with the winner finishing at -15 or better in 18 of the last 20 tournaments.
Originally known as the Bing Crosby Pro-Am, this event has been held every year since 1937, with the exception of 1943-1946 (due to World War II), and has been a who’s who of PGA Tour champions across the eras finding victory, including Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, Byron Nelson, Jimmy Demaret, Lloyd Mangrum, Cary Middlecoff, Ken Venturi, Billy Casper, Tony Lema, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Gene Littler, Ben Crenshaw, Tom Watson, Tom Kite, Hale Irwin, Mark O’Meara, Paul Azinger, Peter Jacobsen, Phil Mickelson, Payne Stewart, Tiger Woods, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose, just to name a few. Phil Mickelson and Mark O’Meara are tied for most wins in this event, with each of them winning here 5 times. Sam Snead also won here 4 times, while Jack Nicklaus and Johnny Miller each won this event 3 times. The scoring record is 265 (-22), which was achieved by Brandt Snedeker in his second Pebble Beach Pro-Am victory in 2015.
The second of eight Signature Events on the PGA Tour schedule, this year’s field of 80 players is arguably the strongest in the tournament’s history, with 45 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking teeing it up this week, including 9 of the top 10 players. Last year’s edition was won by Justin Rose, who ended a four year victory drought on tour with a 3 stroke victory over Brendon Todd and Brandon Wu and by 4 strokes over Peter Malnati, Denny McCarthy and Keith Mitchell.
Player to Fade:
2024 has gotten off to a very poor start for Davis Riley. 3 missed cuts and a T-52 finish at The Sentry, a Signature Event with no cut. Riley hasn’t had much past success at Pebble Beach either, with 2 missed cuts and a T-49 finish in 3 prior starts. Riley’s game is pretty poor across the board right now, losing strokes in 5 of the 6 major Strokes Gained categories. The good news? This is a Signature Event with no cut, so Riley is assured to play all four rounds. But with the strength of this field and as bad as he is playing, Riley will be a non-threat this week and finish in the bottom quarter of the field when it’s all said and done.
Dark Horse:
After closing 2023 with 3 straight top 15 finishes, Beau Hossler resumed his solid form in his second start of 2024, finishing T-6 at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. Hossler is a bit wild off the tee, ranking 169th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, but the closer he gets to the hole, the better he gets, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 15th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Pebble Beach has been kind to Hossler lately, finishing T-11 here last year and finishing 3rd in 2022. The Mission Viejo, CA, native always seems to play well in his home state and this week will be no different as we predict that he will bring home another top 15 result.
It almost feels like a sucker bet to pick Rory McIlroy for a good showing at this point. He’s on an absolute heater of 10 straight top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour. The last time he didn’t crack the top 10? A T-47 finish at last season’s Wells Fargo Championship. Making his first PGA Tour start of 2024, we look at last season’s stats to tell the tale. Frankly, there aren’t many holes. Outside of a bulky putter holding him back (65th in Strokes Gained: Putting), McIlroy ranked inside the top 15 in each of the 5 other major Strokes Gained categories. This is one of the few times we are straying from the past results outweigh recent success philosophy, as McIlroy missed the cut in his lone start in this event in 2018, but he did finish T-9 at the U.S. Open when it was held here in 2019 and he is fresh off of a victory at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. In spite of our horrendous bad luck lately, we predict that we are giving Rory McIlroy the kiss of death, I mean good luck, this week and that he will extend his top 10 streak on tour with a top 10 at Pebble Beach.
2024 has gotten off to a promising start for Xander Schauffele, starting the season off with 3 straight top 10 finishes, highlighted by a T-3 finish at The American Express. Schauffele is a solid player thoughout the bag, but can be a streaky putter, ranking 139th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Schauffele is excelling in areas that are going to be key for success, ranking inside the top 30 in both Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, as well as 9th in Greens In Regulation Percentage and 19th in Scrambling. Schauffele has mixed reviews at Pebble Beach, finishing T-66 in his lone start in this event in 2017, but he also finished T-3 at the U. S. Open held here in 2019. 2022 was the year of Schauffele’s last victory on tour, winning the Travelers Championship and Genesis Scottish Open in back-to-back starts, as well as Schauffele’s last missed cut on the PGA Tour, which happened earlier in that season at the Masters Tournament. Schauffele is one of best players on tour and one of the most consistent in the world. He’s gone winless for far too long and we predict that he will pick up his 8th PGA Tour victory this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
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