2026 Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions

The Chase makes its triumphant return tonight as drivers return to Darlington Raceway for one of the sport’s Crown Jewel races, the 2026 Cook Out Southern 500. First opened in 1950, Darlington Raceway is a 1.366 mile egg-shaped oval featuring 25 degrees of banking in turns one and two, 23 degrees of banking in turns three and four, and six degrees of banking on both the frontstretch and backstretch. Viewed by many as the most difficult track on the schedule, Darlington will take a driver and his machine to the absolute brink as they navigate 500 miles under the lights in hopes of adding their name to the history books with a victory at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

In one of the sport’s marquee races, expect plenty of chaos early, as Practice and qualifying were cancelled due to lightning in the area (On Lightning McQueen Day, no less!), and the lineup being set by the metric. With the metric being based on the race at Daytona last week, there are surprise drivers like Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Austin Dillon rolling out from the top 10, while studs like Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, and Chris Buescher will all be coming from deep in the field. With no laps whatsoever on the track so far this weekend, drivers will be full sending it into turn one on the first lap and praying that they come off of turn two in one piece. There may be no track on the schedule where tire management matters more, as the abrasive, asphalt surface will absolutely destroy tires if a driver is too aggressive early on. Managing those tires over the course of a 40 lap run will be vital to success tonight. In terms of pit strategy, drivers will want four, fresh Goodyear tires all race long because of this. This is a difficult track to pass on, so drivers will want to make up as much ground as possible on pit road and go full throttle on restarts to make up positions on track quickly. Passes can be made around the bottom, but the further you run up the track, the more speed you can find in your race car. The ultimate preferred line is the Larson/Reddick Line, running roughly three inches off the wall around the top of the track. It may be the fastest line, but it’s also the most dangerous line. If you get your tires into the marbles, you could earn a nice Darlington Stripe as you’re ripping the boards through the corners, or worse, you could see your race come to an end early by smacking the wall and either breaking a toe link or causing a massive pileup on the track (No names mentioned, cough cough, Carson Hocevar). Darlington Raceway is one of the last true driver racetracks on the schedule. Drivers must exercise great patience while making passes, while trying to find speed, and while trying to manage their tires and race car. Drivers must race what the race track gives them, and they will be hard pressed to find the right balance of patience and aggression over 500 miles. This is a track that favors veteran drivers, who have the wherewithal to manage all of the quirks that come with racing at Darlington, but young studs will also be looking to conquer The Lady in Black and etch their name into the history books with a Crown Jewel victory in the Cook Out Southern 500.

The Cook Out Southern 500 was first held in 1950 and has produced an incredible list of winners covering the history of the sport. Jeff Gordon holds the record for the most Cook Out Southern 500 wins, finding victory lane six times in his career, including four consecutive years from 1995 to 1998. Cale Yarborough has five Cook Out Southern 500 wins, while Bobby Allison took the checkered flag four times. Buck Baker, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Bill Elliott, Denny Hamlin, David Pearson, and Herb Thomas each have three victories in this race, while Greg Biffle, Chase Briscoe, Harry Gant, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, Terry Labonte, Mark Martin, and Fireball Roberts are also multi-time winners of the Cook Out Southern 500.

Last year’s edition was won by Chase Briscoe, who started on the front row, swept the Stages, and led a race-high 309 laps on the way to a second consecutive Cook Out Southern 500 victory. Tyler Reddick led three laps on the way to a runner-up performance, Erik Jones finished in third, John Hunter Nemechek, Jones’ teammate, led 15 laps on the way to a fourth place finish, while A. J. Allmendinger rounded out the top five. Bubba Wallace led six laps on the way to a sixth place finish, Polesitter Denny Hamlin led 12 laps on the way to a seventh place finish, Ross Chastain led three laps on the way to an 11th place finish, Chase Elliott led eight laps on the way to a 17th place finish, Kyle Larson led two laps on the way to a 19th place finish, Christopher Bell led two laps on the way to a 29th place finish, and Shane van Gisbergen led three laps on the way to a 32nd place finishing position.

Coverage of the Cook Out Southern 500 can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race beginning at 4:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 5 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

It’s been a Cinderella Story-esque run for Josh Berry of late, who, after finding out he was being relaxed by the Wood Brothers following this season, has reeled off five straight top 10 finishes (seventh at Indianapolis, fourth at Iowa, eighth at Richmond, third at New Hampshire, and ninth at Daytona), the longest such streak for a full-time Wood Brothers Racing driver since Morgan Shepherd achieved five straight top 10 finishes during the 1994 season (fourth at Pocono, fifth at Michigan, ninth at Daytona, sixth at New Hampshire, and fifth at Pocono).  Unfortunately for Berry, the sport returns to one of his worst tracks on the circuit in Darlington, where he has posted one top five, two top 20’s, and four finishes of 30th or worse in six career starts. When isolated to the Cook Out Southern 500 only, it gets even bleaker, finishing 31st in 2024 and 38th last season. Berry will start from 14th position, his second best starting position in a Darlington race, thanks to practice and qualifying being rained out and the lineup being set by the metric. Ultimately, what goes up must come down, and that will be the case for Josh Berry at Darlington tonight, as he will slide back quickly and finish outside the top 20.

Dark Horse:

It almost feels wrong to call a drive who has already won two Cup Series this season a dark horse. ALMOST. Corey Heim is a generational talent. Running part-time in the Cup Series for 2026, Heim notched his first two wins, winning the inaugural street race at Naval Base Coronado before doubling down two starts later by winning the Brickyard 400, a Crown Jewel race. Like I said, GENERATIONAL. With Heim making his first Darlington Cup Series start tonight, you would expect him to have a slight learning curve, right? I say nay nay. Heim has amassed solid Darlington experience while racing in the Craftsman Truck Series, winning at The Lady in Black twice while leading a combined 238 laps across six starts. Heim will roll out from 22nd position tonight following a 16th place finish last week at Daytona, but don’t expect him to stay back there for long. I wouldn’t even rule out another victory for Heim Time in one of the sport’s iconic Crown Jewel races, but to keep expectations in check, I predict that Corey Heim will march his #67 (If you know, you know.) Toyota Camry towards the front and bring home a strong top 10 finish.

Top 10:

Chris Buescher is looking to rebound this week after a 40th place finish last weekend at Daytona that saw him go from a few hundred feet away from winning Stage One to wrecked and done for the day following a bad push from behind while coming to the line. With two top fives and 10 top 10’s to sit 70 points behind Denny Hamlin in the standings following the points reset, Buescher is looking to throw his hat into the ring for a shot at the Championship, and there is no better place for him to launch that campaign than at one of his best tracks on the schedule. In 18 career Darlington starts, Buescher has one top five, eight top 10’s, 13 top 20’s, and 63 laps led. Buescher enters tonight with three straight top 10 finishes in the Cook Out Southern 500 and eight top 10 finishes in his last 11 Darlington starts. Buescher will be taking the scenic route tonight, as he starts deep in the field in 35th position courtesy of his finish at Daytona last week. Buescher will lean on those past successes as he works his forward over the course of 500 miles on the way to a fourth straight top 10 finish in the Southern 500.

Winner:

After a dominating start to the beginning of the season that him win the first three races and five of the first nine races of 2026 (Daytona 500, EchoPark, Circuit of the Americas, Darlington, and Kansas), Tyler Reddick came back down to Earth (let me guess, it’s all a part of the Settlement Agreement, right? Right?!?!?) over the summer, which included a stretch of six finishes of 25th or worse over a nine race stretch that saw him lose his massive lead in the Driver Standings before ultimately finishing the regular season ranked third in points behind Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney. Entering The Chase, Reddick is finding his form again, closing the regular season out with three straight top eleven finishes, included a third place showing last weekend at Daytona that saw him with a shot at winning on the final lap. Reddick hopes to carry that momentum into Darlington, where he both won in the spring and has found much success in his career. In 14 career starts at The Track Too Tough To Tame, Reddick has one win, six top fives, eight top 10’s, eleven top 20’s, and 399 laps led in 14 career starts. When focusing on just his Cook Out Southern 500 stats, Reddick has been absolutely dialed in, posting four straight top 10 finishes in this Crown Jewel race, including a pair of runner-up performances and a third place showing. Reddick won here in the spring after starting on the Pole, and he will once again start from the Pole tonight, albeit under vastly different circumstances. Reddick is one of the best in the sport at maximizing his car’s speed while running a few inches off the wall on the track, and he will put that to the test once again at Darlington. Did you really think he’d go down quietly in his drive for a first Cup Series Championship? I’m taking Tyler Reddick to pick up his second Crown Jewel victory of the season and pull off a season sweep of the Darlington races with a victory in the Cook Out Southern 500!