2026 Brickyard 400 presented by PPG Predictions

The Cup Series takes to the track this afternoon with one of its Crown Jewel races as it returns to the iconic Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the 2026 Brickyard 400 presented by PPG. A 2.5-mile rectangular oval with 9.2 degrees of banking in the corners, Indianapolis Motor Speedway was built in 1909 and has tested auto racing’s best for over a century and counting. Serving as host to NASCAR since 1994, Indianapolis Motor Speedway is one of the last great tests of man vs. machine and is one of the few pieces of living history still around in the sport today, with the victorious driver getting to kiss the legendary Yard of Bricks following their victory.

To earn that victory and kiss, drivers will need to bring their A-game. Track position is king. That’s honestly the whole strategy. Passing is so difficult on this track. It’s not impossible (Do I need to say it louder for the trolls in the basement?), but it requires patience and perfection. Drivers will want to wrap that bottom line through the corners and then zig zag their way down the long straightaways to try and prevent the driver behind them from catching a draft off of them. Outside passing is possible (Josef Newgarden and Felix Rosenqvist have entered the chat), but the best offense is, honestly, a good defense. If a driver can park it out front and dirty the air for those behind them, it could be a long day at the office for all of the other drivers in the track. The best chances at passing will come on pit road and on restarts, so the pit crews will need to be on it under caution and drivers will need to be aggressive (No names mentioned, but it rhymes with Parson Go So Far) on restarts to set themselves up for a solid race. Expect some comers and goers all race long, with studs like William Byron, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, and defending race winner Bubba Wallace all starting outside the top 20 and surprise top 15 starting positions for AJ Allmendinger and Cole Custer. Finally, drivers just need to manage their equipment. Just the slightest puff of wind or catching a lapped car at the wrong time can quickly bring a driver’s chance at victory to an end, so they will need to exercise great patience as they cut their way through the field and try not to overstep the limits of their machine, as hitting the wall at Indianapolis might as well be an automatic day ender. But once we get to the final stretch, just how far will a driver be willing to go to try and add their name to the annals of racing history with a Crown Jewel victory at the Brickyard?

Today serves the championship round of the In-Season Challenge, with two drivers still in the hunt for that million dollar prize. It’s David vs. Goliath, with Todd Gilliland taking on Ryan Blaney for the title of In-Season Champion. The highest placing finisher between these two drivers will take home both an awesome, million dollar payout and bragging rights until next season. I’m honestly not sure who will come out on top after the upsets we’ve seen so far this year in the In-Season Challenge, but it’s not over until it’s over.

The Brickyard 400 presented by PPG was first held in 1994 and has produced an all-time list of the sport’s best as winners, as well as the occasional underdog upset. Jeff Gordon has captured the most Brickyard wins, kissing the bricks five times in his career. Jimmie Johnson is a four-time winner at Indianapolis, while Kevin Harvick has captured the Brickyard three times in his career. Kyle Busch, Dale Jarrett, and Tony Stewart are also multi-time winners of the Brickyard 400 presented by PPG at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Last year’s edition was won by Bubba Wallace, who started on the front row and led 23 laps to capture his first Crown Jewel victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Kyle Larson led 19 laps before coming up one position short of winning the race for the second consecutive season, Denny Hamlin led one lap after starting shotgun on the field en route to a third place finish, Ryan Preece led 12 laps on the way to a fourth place finish, while his Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing teammate and owner, Brad Keselowski, rounded out the top five. Ryan Blaney won Stage Two and led 14 laps on the way to a seventh place finish, Alex Bowman led two laps on the way to a ninth place finish, Justin Haley led 15 laps on the way to an 11th place finish, John Hunter Nemechek paced the field for one lap on the way to a 12th place finish, Austin Cindric led a race-high 40 laps on the way to a 15th place finish, and Polesitter Chase Briscoe won Stage One and led 34 laps on the way to an 18th place finishing position.

Coverage of the Brickyard 400 presented by PPG can be seen on TNT, with pre-race coverage beginning at 1 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Alex Bowman is the talk of the garage this weekend, as he announced this week that he plans to retire from full-time racing at the ripe ol’ age of 34 following the 2027 season. Must be nice. What’s not nice is his 2026 season, posting just three top 5’s and four top 10’s to slot in 29th in the Driver Standings. Even if you put in an average of 30 points per race (generous, I know, given his season) for those four races he missed earlier on in the campaign while battling vertigo, he’d still be below the Chase cutline, albeit within shouting distance (less than 100 points out) of that cutline. What’s even worse is his track record at Indianapolis (You may want to coat your stomach with Pepto-Bismol in advance), which is statistically his worst track on the circuit. In seven career Brickyard 400 starts, Bowman has six finishes outside the top 20, with five of those six finishes being finishes of 30th or worse (Tied with B. J. McLeod with an average Brickyard finish of 29.6 for his career). Granted, he picked up his first top 20 AND his first top 10 in this race last season, leading two laps on the way to a ninth place finish, which, logically, should make race fans hopeful. But alas, the pace just isn’t there, with Bowman posting one top five (fifth at Chicagoland), two top 10’s (10th at Sonoma), and just four top 20 finishes in the nine races held since the All-Star Race. Bowman’s practice session yielded mixed results, ranking inside the top 10 on 10 Lap Averages while only posting the 31st fastest lap of the session. After a strong qualifying effort that netted him an eighth place starting position, I predict that Bowman will slide backwards over the course of 400 miles on the way to another finish outside the top 20 at the Brickyard.

Dark Horse:

One of my favorite dark horses, and I’m not just saying that since he drives a Ford Mustang, Chris Buescher is having a solid season, posting two top 5’s, 10 top 10’s, and an average finish of 13.57 on the season (sixth amongst all drivers) to slot in ninth in the Driver Standings. With just six DNF’s since the start of the 2023 season (with four of those coming on drafting tracks), Buescher is a driver who is capable of outlasting his competition and getting the most out of his car on the track (It’s not the sexiest strategy, but this is the real life application of C’s get Degrees.) on any given weekend, which is truly paying dividends under this new Chase format. He’s never led a lap at Indianapolis, but Chris Buescher exercises that doggedness on this race track to bring home solid finishes at the end of the day, posting four top 15 finishes (with a best of ninth in 2017 while driving for JTG Dougherty Racing) in seven Brickyard starts. Buescher has also had solid success this season on larger tracks with long straightaways that utilizing drafting, finishing seventh at Pocono and ninth at Michigan. That speed and persistence looks to set up Buescher for a massive race today, as he showed top five pace on 5, 10, 15, and 20 Lap Averages during Practice before qualifying in 15th position. A win isn’t that far fetched for the steely veteran, but lock down Chris Buescher for a top 10 finish in Indianapolis.

Top 10:

In the midst of a 45-race winless streak, Kyle Larson is continuing to inch closer to victory in 2026, logging eight top 5’s and 11 top 10’s to rank sixth in the Driver Standings. We all know about Larson’s multiple failed Double attempts (Soak it all in, boomers. This is YOUR moment.), but this isn’t IndyCar, so pay no mind to that. In 2024, Kyle Larson won the Brickyard 400 presented by PPG, leading eight laps on the way to victory. In 2025, he finished in second after leading 19 laps on the day. One win, three top 5’s, five top 10’s, and six top 20’s in eight careers starts at Indianapolis automatically makes a veteran like Larson one of the favorites this afternoon, regardless of speed. Like Buescher above, Larson has been dialed in on the large tracks with long straightaways that utilize drafting, finishing fourth at Michigan and fifth at Pocono earlier this summer. Across those two races, he was beaten by six Toyotas and by his teammate, William Byron, once. When it comes to raw speed, Larson is arguably the best non-Toyota driver on the campaign. So far this weekend, Larson has picked right back up where he left off in the past two Brickyard 400’s, posting the sixth fastest lap of Practice and pacing the field on 5 and 10 Lap Averages before qualifying in 10th position. Larson is too talented of a driver to go winless for much longer in the Cup Series, and although a Crown Jewel victory at the Brickyard 400 presented by PPG would be an epic way to end that streak, I just don’t see him closing the deal today. Expect Kyle Larson to be in the hunt all race long on the way to a third-straight top 10 finish at the Brickyard.

Winner:

2026 has truly been a season for the ages so far for Denny Hamlin, posting four wins (five with the All-Star Race), 11 top 5’s, 13 top 10’s, and an average finish of 8.667 (Best in the Cup Series this season, not to mention an ELITE 6-7 reference. IYKYK.) to pace the Driver Standings by 68 points (right between the two most glorious numbers) with just five races to go in the regular season. Other than that elusive Championship, a Brickyard victory has been one of the few boxes that Hamlin has yet to check off in his illustrious career, albeit not for a lack of trying. In 17 career starts at the Brickyard, Hamlin has six top 5’s, nine top 10’s, 12 top 20’s, and 153 laps led. Hamlin tied his career best finish at the Brickyard last season, finishing in third position after starting in 39th position due to wrecking during the qualifying session. Hamlin has led laps in four of the last five Brickyard 400’s, but has also been caught up in racing incidents in two of those five races to post a trio of top six finishes and two finishes of 28th or worse, very much feast or famine for Hamlin at Indianapolis of late. Arguably no other driver has had more raw speed than Denny Hamlin this season, as he started on the Pole at both Michigan and Pocono (long straightaways that utilize drafting) and went on to win both of those races. So far this weekend, it could very well become another classic Hamlin outing, ranking inside the top 10 on 5 Lap Averages and inside the top five on 10 Lap Averages, logging the fifth fastest lap of Practice, and posting a fifth place qualifying effort. In a season where seemingly everything has gone Denny Hamlin’s way (You boomers can’t get your CAPS LOCK on fast enough to bitch about Them Cheating ‘Yota’s, how the speed is all part of the lawsuit, how rigged it all is, and how Bubba Wallace sucks, even though this post has nothing to do with him.), we predict that he will finally lay claim to the last Crown Jewel race that has eluded him and pick up his fifth victory of season by winning the Brickyard 400 presented by PPG at Indianapolis Motor Speedway!