2026 Coca-Cola 600 Predictions

The Cup Series races on tonight with one of its signature, Crown Jewel races, the 2026 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Best known as the 600 Miles of Remembrance in honor of those who gave their lives serving our country, the race takes an even more somber tone this year after the unexpected passing of NASCAR legend Kyle Busch on Thursday from a brief, severe illness at the age of 41.

There’s really not much I can say that hasn’t been said about Busch already. 234 wins across the top three series in NASCAR. Kyle Busch Motorsports launching the careers of so many active drivers and crew members. Busch’s support of families struggling to have children through the Bundle of Joy Fund. A driver both much beloved and much loathed by fans at the same time. A driver who always wanted to win, no matter the series or type of vehicle. And, most importantly, a loving father to his kids, Brexton and Lennix, his wife, Samantha, and his brother, Kurt. I was very fortunate to see Kyle win twice in his career,  the 2016 Brickyard 400 and the 2017 Overton’s 400, pictures from both can be seen below. A legend both on and off the track, Kyle Busch will forever be remembered as one of the GOATs of the sport.

And now that we’re done crying, onward to racing. At 600 miles, the Coca-Cola 600 is the longest race drivers face each season, and serves as one of the four Crown Jewel races. The race also serves as the sport’s annual salute to our nation’s active-duty military, and most importantly, in memory of those who gave their lives serving and defending our country.

Charlotte Motor Speedway is a one and a half mile paved track featuring five degrees of banking on the straights and 24 degrees of banking in the corners. A fixture on the schedule since 1960, the Coca-Cola 600 serves as the premier test of both driver and vehicle endurance. With qualifying rained out yesterday, there will be plenty of comers and goers early on, with surprise drivers like Shane van Gisbergen, Michael McDowell, and AJ Allmendinger starting inside the top 10, while studs like Joey Logano, William Byron, Brad Keselowski, and defending winner Ross Chastain starting outside the top 25. Patience will absolutely be a virtue during these early stages. Drivers did have Practice, so they’ll have a decent baseline on how their cars will behave early on, but 600 miles is a long time, as temperatures will cool off, nighttime will occur, and the threat of rain may force some aggression earlier than expected. Intermediate tracks have produced some of the most competitive racing on the season, so drivers will need to have that long run speed dialed in, as well as solid handling in place to make moves up high or down low. Four tires will be the call the bulk of the way, barring a late caution toward the end of a stage or at the very end of the race. Drivers will ultimately need to manage their patience and manage their equipment, as 600 miles is a long time for things to fall into place. Which driver will step up and put a grieving sport on its shoulders tonight in remembrance of one of the sport’s all-time greats?

The Coca-Cola 600 has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule for decades, with the sport’s all-time greats finding Victory Lane through the years. Darrell Waltrip has won the Coca-Cola 600 the most, winning it five times in his career. Jimmie Johnson won this race four times, while Bobby Allison, Buddy Baker, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, and David Pearson are all three-time winners of the 600. Neil Bonnett, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Fred Lorenzen, Jim Paschal, Richard Petty, and Martin Truex Jr. are also multi-time winners of the Coca-Cola 600.

Last year’s race was won by Ross Chastain, who, after wrecking in Practice and starting the race from the 40th and final position, marched his way to the front and took the lead for good with six laps ago to secure the victory. William Byron finished in second place after sweeping all three Stages and leading a race-high 283 laps, Polesitter Chase Briscoe led one lap on the way to a third place finish, AJ Allmendinger finished in fourth place, and Brad Keselowski rounded out the top five after leading five laps. Chase Elliott led two laps on the way to a sixth place finish, Christopher Bell led five laps on the way to an eighth place finish, Denny Hamlin led 53 laps on the way to a 16th place finish, Ty Gibbs led six laps on the way to a 24th place finish, Tyler Reddick led one lap on the way to a 26th place finish, Carson Hocevar led two laps on the way to a 34th place finish, and Kyle Larson led 34 laps on the way to a 37th place finish in his pursuit of the Memorial Day Double.

Coverage of the Coca-Cola 600 can be seen on Amazon Prime (don’t forget about your FREE 30 day subscription to watch all five of the Prime races, you miserable pricks), with pre-race coverage beginning at 5 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 6 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

This pick is very much low-hanging fruit, but allow me to justify. Noah Gragson has sucked this year, plain and simple. He has had only three top 20 finishes, all of which came on drafting tracks (9th at Talladega, 11th at Daytona, and 14th at EchoPark). As bad as he has been at virtually every track type, the intermediate tracks have been particularly brutal, finishing 28th or worse at all three cookie-cutter style intermediates (28th at both Texas and Kansas and 30th at Las Vegas). I know all intermediate tracks don’t run the same, but Gragson hasn’t fared much better at Charlotte. He did finish in 10th last year after qualifying in eighth position, but he did not finish either of his other three Coca-Cola 600 starts, finishing 24th in 2022, 36th in 2023, and 38th in 2024. Gragson didn’t show much potential in Practice yesterday and rolls out from 28th position tonight. Lock down another finish outside the top 25 tonight for Noah Gragson on an intermediate track.

Dark Horse:

He may be ranked inside the top 10 in points, but Brad Keselowski has quietly put himself in the championship hunt in 2026, with a pair of top 5’s and four top 10 finishes to go against just two finishes outside the top 20 to slot in ninth position in the Driver Standings as we kick off the second third of the season tonight. Keselowski’s intermediate results have been solid this season, finishing 6th at Kansas, 10th at Las Vegas, and 13th at Texas. Much in the same way, Keselowski has done well at Charlotte in his career, posting two wins (including the 2020 Coca-Cola 600), seven top 5’s, 12 top 10’s, 22 top 20’s, and 328 laps led in 26 starts at the track. Keselowski has been really dialed in at Charlotte the last two seasons, finishing inside the top five both times (5th in 2025 and 4th in 2024) despite starting 30th or worse (35th in 2025 and 30th in 2025) in both races. Keselowski did not show us much in Practice, posting just the 32nd fastest lap of the session, and will roll out from 26th position. A win is not out of the realm, but expect Brad Keselowski to march his way forward over the course of 600 miles to bring home a third-straight top 10 Charlotte finish.

Top 10:

2026 is quickly turning into a career year for Chase Elliott, with two wins (Martinsville and Texas), five top 5’s, and 7 top 10’s to slot in third in the Driver Standings, the best among non-Toyota Drivers. Elliott has been one of the best of the best on intermediate tracks in 2026, winning at Texas, finishing runner-up in Las Vegas, and posting an eighth place showing at Kansas. Charlotte may very well be Elliott’s best intermediate track at the moment, posting one win (2020), four top 5’s, six top 10’s, and 227 laps led in his last eight starts at the track. Elliott was underwhelming in Practice to say the least, posting the 35th fastest lap of Practice and showing minimal short run pace, but will start 16th thanks to the lineup being set by the Metric. Elliott started outside the top 10 en route to his other three top 10’s on intermediate tracks this season, and I predict he will do the same tonight on the way to a third-straight top 10 finish at the Coca-Cola 600.

Winner:

In times of tragedy, the sport leans on its senior-most drivers. Today, that role will be filled by Denny Hamlin. A man no stranger to tragedy, Hamlin and Kyle Busch were teammates for 15 years at Joe Gibbs Racing. Hamlin has been racing for his father all his life, and after last season, in his memory. A driver who understands the enormity of this situation, Hamlin enters tonight with a strong campaign so far in 2026, winning at Las Vegas and posting five top 5’s and seven top 10’s to rank second in the Driver Standings, 129 points behind Tyler Reddick at 23XI Racing, a car owned by Hamlin. Denny has very much been the driver to beat on intermediate tracks of late, finishing no worse than fourth in each of the last nine intermediate rack races, highlighted by a pair of wins at Las Vegas, a win at Michigan, and a runner-up performance just three weeks ago in the most recent intermediate race at Texas. Hamlin has done well at Charlotte in his career, posting one win (2022 Coca-Cola 600), 12 top 5’s, 21 top 10’s, 27 top 20’s, and 468 laps led in 34 career Charlotte starts. Hamlin wasn’t a wow factor in Practice, but he did post the 12th fastest lap of the session and raked inside the top 10 on 10 Lap Averages and inside the top five on 15 Lap Averages. Rolling off from the 11th position, I’m taking the #11 Toyota Camry of Denny Hamlin to put on a strong show during the 600 Miles of Remembrance and honor the memory of his late teammate by earning his second victory of the season and his second Coca-Cola 600 victory!