2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 Predictions

The Cup Series rolls on this afternoon as it returns to the desert and Phoenix Raceway for the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500. First opened in 1964, Phoenix Raceway is a 1.022 dogleg oval with nine degrees of banking on the frontstretch, three degrees of banking on the backstretch, nine degrees of banking in turns one and two, and eleven degrees of banking in turns three and four that has hosted the best from NASCAR’s Cup, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and Craftsman Truck Series’ throughout the decades, and, after an eight year absence, has welcomed the return of the NTT INDYCAR Series for the first time since 2018. In all honesty, this is the first week where we will really see who is a contender and who is a pretender, given the first three races were held on a pair of drafting tracks and a road course. It’s time to see which teams have that speed locked in and which ones need to step up their game.

First and foremost, track position is vital. Passing can be difficult on this track, especially as the tires go away over the course of a run. Drivers will want to make all the passes that they can on restarts, fanning out five and six wide on the frontstretch to gain as much ground as they can as quickly as possible. With a frontstretch that stretches to roughly 62 feet at its widest, and with no out of bounds, hay can be made quickly here, as we saw Corey Heim do in the Championship Race in the Craftsman Truck Series in the fall. Tires matter, unless you’re Denny Hamlin (Too soon?). Tire fall off is real at this track, but a driver can get away with a two tire stop or a no tire stop if it’s only a two or three lap sprint to the finish. Drivers will need to manage their tires, as well as their equipment in general, in this heat. Cut tires, brake failures, and engine failures are often common at this track, so a driver’s day can quickly go from great to over in the blink of an eye. Expect plenty of movers and shakers as this race progresses, with the cars built for short runs sliding backward and the cars trimmed out for long runs inching their way forward as drivers will do everything they can to maintain their track position and try to snag a victory.

The Straight Talk Wireless 500 has been held annually since 2005 and has produced an incredible list of winners throughout the years. Kevin Harvick has won this race the most times, finding Victory Lane five times in his career, while Christopher Bell, Jeff Gordon, and Ryan Newman are also multi-time winners of this race.

Last year’s edition was won by Christopher Bell, who won Stage Two, led a race-high 105 laps, and passed teammate Denny Hamlin on the last lap to win this race for the second consecutive year. Denny Hamlin finished in second place after leading three laps on the day, Kyle Larson finished in third place, while Ford drivers Josh Berry and Chris Buescher rounded out the top five. Polesitter William Byron finished in sixth after leading 83 laps and winning Stage One, Joey Logano finished in 13th position after leading 81 laps, Ryan Preece led 34 laps on the way to a 15th place finish, and Austin Cindric led six laps on the way to a 19th place finish.

Will Tyler Reddick keep his historic streak alive and find Victory Lane for the fourth consecutive race to start the season? Will Christopher Bell win this race for the third straight season? Will Team Penske lock down a victory and a weekend sweep in the Desert Double? We’ll find out in 312 miles. Coverage of the Straight Talk Wireless 500 can be seen on Fox Sports One, with pre-race starting at 3 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

If you would have told me at the start of the season that Shane van Gisbergen would be ranked fifth in the Driver Standings after three races, I would have asked what kind of kiwis you were smoking (Come on now. That’s funny, and you know it.). Backing up a dismal 30th place showing at the Daytona 500 with a sixth place showing at EchoPark and a strong runner-up performance at Circuit of the Americas, the good times will quickly come to a close for SVG this week as NASCAR returns to a more traditional oval in Phoenix, which ultimately means absolute regression on the track for the driver of the #97 Chevrolet. Finishing 31st and 24th in the two races at Phoenix last season, SVG is picking up right where he left off, ranking outside the top 25 on 5, 10, and 15 Lap Averages in Practice and laying down only the 31st fastest lap of the session. Rolling out from 18th position this afternoon, expect SVG to struggle early and often on the way to another finish outside the top 25 at Phoenix.

Dark Horse:

An absolute bulldog out on the track, Chris Buescher is just one of those drivers who goes out and takes care of business. Buescher just chips away and grinds out solid finishes on days when his car isn’t up to snuff, and when he’s firing on all cylinders, watch out. 2026 has been a mixed bag so far for Buescher, finishing 7th at Daytona, 15th at EchoPark, and 24th at Circuit of the Americas. Trending in the wrong direction, Buescher looks to get back on track (I think I’m hilarious.) at what has been one of his stronger tracks of late. Buescher is riding a streak of six straight top 15 finishes and seven top 15 finishes in the last eight races at Phoenix, including a trio of top 5’s and five top 10 finishes, highlighted by a runner-up performance in the spring race in 2024. Buescher struggled on the short runs in Practice, but had solid long run speed, ranking inside the top 10 in 10 and 15 Lap Averages. Starting from 17th position, expect Buescher to pick his way through the field on long green flag runs as he picks up his second top 10 finish of the campaign.

Top 10:

Your defending Cup Series champion, Kyle Larson is looking to get his season trending in the right direction following finishes of 16th at Daytona, 32nd at EchoPark, and sixth at Circuit of the Americas, ranking 15th in the Driver Standings. Larson has arguably been the best driver at Phoenix of late who doesn’t drive for Team Penske, posting one win, 11 top 5’s, 15 top 10’s, 20 top 20’s, and leading 395 laps in 23 career starts at the track. Larson has really dialed it in in recent years though, posting five top four finishes in his last six starts at the track. Larson didn’t really flex his muscles in Practice, but he laid down the second fastest lap of qualifying to lock in a front row starting position. Kyle Larson will be in the mix all race long this afternoon on the way to another top 10 Phoenix finish.

Winner:

Frankly, it’s a waste of time to pick any driver other than Ryan Blaney this week. The new King of the Desert, Blaney has been the man to beat, posting one win, 10 top 5’s, and 12 top 10 finishes in his last 14 starts at Phoenix, highlighted by a pair of Poles and three races where he led 90 or more laps, and capped off with his first trip to Victory Lane in the fall race here last year. Coming off back-to-back top 10 finishes at EchoPark and Circuit of the Americas, Blaney has shown early on this weekend why he remains the man to beat in the desert, laying down the seventh fastest lap of Practice and ranking inside the top eight on 5, 10, 15, and 20 Lap Averages. Rolling out from a top five starting position, expect Blaney to be in the hunt all race long and take control for good on those long green flag runs of racing. With Josef Newgarden winning the NTT IndyCar race here yesterday, Team Penske is already halfway there to sweeping the Desert Double this weekend. Break out the brooms and lock in a Team Penske sweep this afternoon for Ryan Blaney with his first victory of the 2026 campaign and his second at Phoenix Raceway in the Straight Talk Wireless 500!